UPDATE ON NIGERIA'S ELECTION PREPARATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON NIGERIA'S ELECTION PREPARATIONS


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: Nigeria's political space has opened
significantly since the defeat of the third term proposal in
May. There are now over 40 registered parties and many
potential candidates are testing the waters. However, the
political scene remains chaotic with a shifting constellation
of parties mostly formed around personalities rather than
policy positions. In addition, serious concerns remain about
Nigeria's technical preparedness to hold credible, free and
fair elections in just 8 months. The Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) has not yet published the
election timetable and its plans for voter registration are
problematic. INEC's Chairman Maurice Iwu was hostile toward
U.S.-sponsored democracy NGOs in a recent meeting. End
Summary.


2. (U) On August 3, the embassy's Election Partners Team met
to discuss preparations by the GON for elections in April

2007. Participants included the Ambassador, Poloffs, A/DCM,
and representatives of USAID, the National Democratic
Institute (NDI),the International Republican Institute
(IRI),and IFES, an elections NGO. The group discussed the
activities of candidates and parties as well as INEC's
preparations for Nigeria's local, state, and national
elections scheduled for April 2007.

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Parties, Candidates, Conventions
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3. (U) IRI reported that over 40 political parties have now
been registered by INEC and may field candidates in 2007.
Most parties are not forming to allow groups of people to
express political platforms; rather, they are being used as
personal vehicles for big men to further their political
ambitions. Some of the parties are merely a back-up on which
to run in the event their preferred party does not select
them. The political landscape will become clearer after the
major party conventions are held. None of the parties have
announced their convention dates, and no party wants to hold
its convention too early and watch losing primary candidates
decamp (along with their supporters) to other tickets.
Parties must identify their candidates to INEC 150 days prior
to the election, so IRI expects that most conventions will be
held in November.


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Election calendar still uncertain
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4. (C) Though INEC has announced that the 2007 elections
will take place between April 8 and April 29, it has yet to
publish the full election timetable, which will specify on
exactly which dates various elections will be held. In
addition to the presidential contest, Nigerians will vote for
governors, national assembly representatives, and state
houses of assembly representatives. By law INEC must publish
the election timetable at least 150 days prior to the voting,
and IFES expects that INEC will wait until the statutory
deadline to do so.


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Voter Registration: Last Minute and Overly Ambitious
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5. (C) INEC is now planning to register voters through the
"direct data capture" method. Each voter will personally
appear for registration at his polling place. His name will
be entered into a computer and a digital photo and
fingerprint will be captured. This high-tech method would
probably result in a more accurate and more secure voter's
roll than in previous elections. However, INEC has not yet
purchased any of the equipment needed to implement direct
data capture. They have not even chosen a supplier, and it
is not clear how long it will take to order and receive the
necessary machines. Recent newspaper articles question
whether INEC has the funds necessary to purchase this
equipment. Even if the machines can be sourced and paid for
on time, according to IFES, training and installation will
take some time. Nigeria has 120,000 announced polling places
at which voter registration must be conducted, but INEC is
only planning to purchase 40,000 machines. This would force
registration to be conducted on a rolling schedule in
different parts of the country, with the consequent
logistical challenges.


6. (C) Because of the change to a direct data capture

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method, INEC now tells IFES that they will not begin the
voter registration exercise until late October or early
November. However, by law they must complete the
registration 120 days prior to the election (early December).
This leaves a very short window for INEC to register
millions of citizens at 120,000 polling places. At least one
of INEC's National Commissioners remarked to the IFES
Director that INEC's voter registration scheme is likely to
fail and that "Plan B" will be to simply use the (flawed)
2003 voters roll as a base and make a modest attempt to
update it.


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Iwu Lashes Out
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7. (C) INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu met with IRI, NDI, and IFES
on July 31. Iwu appeared stressed and was in a bad mood.
The NGO representatives reported that Iwu is increasingly
trying to monitor and/or control their activities in Nigeria.
Iwu is now asking for monthly meetings with all three
organizations and told them he feels that the European Union
and United Nations are "more transparent" than the U.S. team
about their election activities. He insisted that NDI must
use INEC-supplied materials for voter education and was
dismissive of IRI's efforts to facilitate a political party
"code of conduct," because INEC already published a code of
conduct for parties in 2003. Under IRI's leadership,
Nigerian parties have voluntarily come together and written a
code of conduct for the 2007 election. This type of
bottom-up, party driven effort is often more effective than a
code imposed by the government.


8. (C) More disturbing however was Iwu's insistence that
IFES cancel a seminar on electoral violence scheduled for
August 1. The meeting was a follow-on to a conference IFES
sponsored in July on the same topic, which brought together
civil society, party representatives, and government
officials (including INEC). Chairman Iwu reported told
IFES-Nigeria's director that he must cancel the seminar due
to "issues of national security." When the director
attempted to persuade Iwu the seminar should take place, Iwu
threatened "I know where your meeting is taking place." IFES
prudently decided to postpone its election violence seminar,
rather than risk the meeting's interruption by Nigerian
security services.


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Comment
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9. (C) It is encouraging that the political space has opened
and that parties and candidates are multiplying. Post
remains concerned that the election timetable hasn't been
announced, party conventions are likely to be held at the
last possible moment, and it will be extremely difficult for
Nigeria to register voters in a timely manner using direct
data capture. By late November or early December, we should
know whether the GON can meet their legal deadlines for
election preparation. Diplomatic chatter that President
Obasanjo wants to extend his time in office continues, and
inadequate election preparation might allow him a scenario
for so doing. We are concerned about increasing political
violence as Nigeria attempts to complete their first transfer
of power from civilian to civilian. The embassy will
continue working aggressively to encourage Nigerian elections
that are significantly better than in 2003, but there are
many potential pitfalls in the road ahead.
CAMPBELL