NIGERIA:IMPLEMENTATION OF THE BAKASSI AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001841

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016
TAGS: PBTS MOPS PREL NI CM
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:IMPLEMENTATION OF THE BAKASSI AGREEMENT

REF: ABUJA 1537

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas P. Furey for Reasons 1.4 (b and
d)


1. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) Summary. From the
Nigerian side, plans for implementation of the Greentree
Accord on Bakassi are moving forward. The military fully
intends to be out of Bakassi in "not a day more" than the
sixty days specified in the agreement, the Nigerian police
have requested the resources they need to assume their
interim security role on the peninsula, and the people and
government of Cross River State are ready to resettle those
Bakassi indigenes who wish to relocate into Nigeria. None of
these interlocutors gave any credence to the secessionist
threats that have been widely reported in the Nigerian press.
Overall, everyone involved in the process shares a positive
outlook and is ready for the Bakassi issue to be resolved so
that they can focus on other issues. The question in the
whole process is at the top--will the Presidency provide the
resources necessary for all of these plans to be implemented?
End summary.


2. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) PolMilOff and TDY EmbOff
traveled to Calabar, the capital of Nigeria's Cross River
State, the week of 10 July to assess preparations for the
implementation of the Greentree Accord on the Bakassi
Peninsula. The EmbOffs met with Bakassi's political and
traditional leadership, the Cross River State Police
Commissioner, and the State Security Advisor (Bassey Okum,
Cross River State's NSA-equivalent),and have had an ongoing
conversation with Nigeria's defense establishment on the
Bakassi issue. The EmbOff's were warmly greeted by all
interlocutors, and there was a sense of appreciation for the
efforts the USG, as a witness to the agreement, was putting
into understanding the situation. Several interlocutors
expressed disappointment that no representatives from any of
the other witness states have made similar efforts so far.


The Local Population
--------------

3. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) The Bakassi Local
Government Area (LGA) Chair, Ani Eric Esin, and Bakassi's
representative in the Cross River House of Assembly, Joe
Etene, met with the EmbOffs to discuss the indigene view on
the agreement. While the agreement remained an emotional
topic for the two, both seemingly have come to terms with the
legitimacy of the pact and are looking for the best possible
implementation. Both continued to raise concerns about the
sudden change from Obasanjo's pledge to never cede any
Bakassi territory and continued to advocate for a referendum
to determine the fate of the peninsula (Reftel). Both said
that the residents of the Bakassi view their political
leaders as "sellouts" who were part of a "crude oil deal" in
the peninsula. The traditional leaders, particularly the
paramount chief of the area (young, educated, and former LGA
chair in Akpabuyo),are, however, still respected by the
population.


4. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) Both Esen and Etene are
pleased with the state's plan to reconstitute the Bakassi LGA
in the current Akpabuyo LGA (near the town of Ikang),and say
that there have historically been good relations between the
two LGAs. They predict some problems in the future over land
use issues (Akpobuyo is currently a farming community),and
access to the sea (the Bakassi communities rely on deep sea
fishing for their livelihood, and Akpobuyo borders the Cross
River, not the Bight of Benin).


5. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) No interlocutors were able
to predict how many of the current Bakassi inhabitants would
choose to relocate. The State Security Advisor predicted
that there would be more movement from northern Bakassi
(Archibong area) to southern Bakassi than movement out of
Bakassi. As long as they were allowed to continue to fish,
live in their traditional homes, and were free of harassment,
most will not care (or possibly even know) if they are in
Nigeria or Cameroon. The political leaders voiced
significant concerns about freedom from harassment, claiming
historical abuses of the Bakassi population by Cameroonian
gendarmes. The State Security Advisor cautioned that if the
issue of protection of the rights of the Bakassi residents
was not handled during the transition, "Niger Delta-like
violence" could start in the Bakassi. He went further,
suggesting an international presence (possibly through either
the witness nations or the UN, or as an extension of the

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Mixed Commission's mandate) specifically to ensure the
protection of the rights of these residents. (Note:
Bakassi's political leaders expressed little confidence in
the current population estimates for the peninsula and are
exploring performing a new headcount. Even though the
population was counted during the recent national census,
those results have not been published and may be tainted by
the administrative problems experienced during the exercise.
End Note.)


6. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) The paramount chief echoed
the concerns of the two political leaders and their hopes for
a peaceful implementation in a telephone conversation with
PolMilOff (the chief was on his way to survey the proposed
resettlement site). He expressed a particular confidence in
his ability to work with the traditional rulers of Akpobuyo
given his past political activity in the area. He added a
request for USD 50 Million from each of the four witness
states to fund resettlement and transition programs. When
PolMilOff told the chief this his request was not likely to
be fulfilled, he angrily questioned the purpose of having
witnesses to the agreement.

Nigerian Military
--------------


7. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) Nigeria's new Chief of
Defense Staff, General Martin Luther Agwai, has publicly and
privately voiced his commitment to remove Nigeria's military
forces from the Bakassi in "not a day more" than the sixty
days specified in the agreement (Note: Agwai told PolMilOff
there are just under 3500 troops deployed to Bakassi). Agwai
made a personal tour of the deployed units shortly after the
agreement was signed, and is convinced that the soldiers are
ready to redeploy back to their home stations. Of particular
note, Agwai (in comments widely reported in the local press)
publicly praised the Army's performance and stressed that
Nigeria--and the military, especially--should not view the
withdrawal as a defeat, but as an example of the peaceful
resolution of border disputes, a view echoed by several other
interlocutors.


8. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) Agwai is excited to have
these troops available for peacekeeping and internal security
functions, especially as security requirements in the Delta
increase, as the mission in Darfur moves to a UN deployment
(with a requirement for UN-standard battalions),and as the
2007 election season begins. He plans to return the units to
their home stations, perform any necessary refit (resources
permitting),and then deploy the units as required.
Importantly, Agwai says that he wants to only deploy entire
units, not selectively deploy individuals or components.


9. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) The British DATT has
shared with EmbOffs that the Presidency was noncommittal
about providing funding for the withdrawal of troops from the
Bakassi. He was unsure if sixty days was a reasonable
timeline for withdraw, especially with no actual troop
movements yet occurring, speculating that six months might be
a more reasonable timeline.


Nigerian Police
--------------


10. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) As the military
withdraws, the Nigerian police will assume interim
responsibility for security in the Bakassi, until Cameroon
assumes full responsibility for the territory. The
Commissioner of Police for Cross River State, DanLami
Yar'Adua, told EmbOffs that his deputy had recently toured
Bakassi with the Inspector General of Police (the
Commissioner was on annual leave during the IGP's visit, but
intends to make his own tour in the near future) to determine
the security requirements. The Cross River police command
has made a request to Abuja for four units of mobile police
(63 police officers per unit) to handle this new
responsibility. They have requested funds to rehabilitate
the facilities the Nigerian military is vacating for use as
police quarters, and funding to develop a radio communication
system to support police operations.


11. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) When questioned about
liaison with his Cameroonian counterparts in the event of a
border incident (Note: Cross River State already shares a
significant border with Cameroon),the Commissioner said that
he had no contacts in Cameroon and that any communication

ABUJA 00001841 003 OF 003


would have to be coordinated either through the Cameroonian
consulate in Calabar, or (more likely) through police
headquarters in Abuja. The State Security Advisor told
EmbOffs that there was no formal mechanism in place to
communicate with anyone on the Cameroonian side of the
border, but did say that some informal networks existed for
security issues.

Secession
--------------


12. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) The Nigerian press has
covered the Bakassi agreement extensively, initially
criticizing the GON for failing to protect the Nigerians of
the Bakassi and later reporting on positive steps toward
implementation. One other part of the story that gets
significant press are calls for secession of the Southern
Cameroons (including Bakassi) from both Nigeria and Cameroon
and the formation of an Ambazonian Republic. All
interlocutors in Cross River downplayed the seriousness of
these statements, saying that there was a very small
population of English-speaking Cameroonians living "in exile"
in Nigeria who were trying to latch onto the Bakassi story as
a way to move their cause forward. The State Security
Advisor did caution that a true resistance movement could
develop, however, if the rights of the Bakassi residents were
not protected and cases of abuse by Cameroonian authorities
were reported.


13. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) Joe Etene, the State
Assembly representative for Bakassi, provided PolMilOff with
a copy of the maiden edition of the Ambaz Star--the
secessionist news publication that was recently delivered to
his office with a (Nigerian) cell phone number (but no name)
for future contacts. The publication is technically
good--glossy paper, better editing than is typical in
Nigerian media--but ideologically extreme. It accuses France
of a plot to destroy Nigeria ("Operation Crush Nigeria"),and
calls on Ambazonians to forcefully eject the Cameroonian
government "law breakers" (civil servants) from Ambazonian
land. The publication also repeatedly tries to justify both
the legal basis for Ambazonian independence and the existence
of the Ambazonian head of state (Fongum Gorji-Dinka).
Interestingly, the price for the publication is denominated
in CFA, the Cameroonian currency.

Comment
--------------


14. (C/REL TO USA, GBR, FRA, DEU) With the exception of the
request from the paramount chief for USD 200 Million,
everyone involved in the transition seems to take a very
reasoned view on the transition process. Everyone appears to
want peace, to make the transition as smooth as possible, and
has come to a realization that whether Nigeria or Cameroon
rules the land, there will not be much of a difference on the
ground. The real question remains the commitment of the
Nigerian government to the process, and how much leverage the
witness states will have on this issue with the GON. Any
problems with the Greentree Accord will arise from the lack
of attention by the Nigerian government to logistical issues
such as funding, policing, or internal coordination.
FUREY