Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA1427
2006-06-09 13:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

ON THE ROAD TO 2007: REVENGE OR RECONCILIATION?

Tags:  PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001427 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ON THE ROAD TO 2007: REVENGE OR RECONCILIATION?


Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001427

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ON THE ROAD TO 2007: REVENGE OR RECONCILIATION?


Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Nigerian political environment has
undergone a seismic upheaval in the past two weeks and the
aftershocks are still reverberating through the political
landscape. Three issues are at the center of this rapidly
evolving situation: whether President Obasanjo will seek
revenge or reconciliation after the defeat of the third term
in the National Assembly; whether or not Obasanjo has given
up on an extension of his "mandate;" and what new political
alliances are coming out of the turmoil. Poloffs met with a
group of well-connected political activists recently to
discuss Nigeria's political future. While it is too early to
predict the outcome, the one clear message is that change is
in the offing and both Nigerians and outside observers are
uncomfortable predicted what Nigeria will look like by the
May 29, 2007 Inauguration Day. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Poloffs hosted an informal social gathering the
evening of June 7 with a collection of people well-connected
to the Nigerian political scene. Attendees included a
Ghanaian diplomat, members of Nigeria's House of
Representatives (past and present),an Assistant Commissioner
of Police, two former ministers and the head of the Foreign
Ministry's International Division. The conversation centered
on possibilities for the presidential elections due in 2007.
While the conversation was wide ranging, the group seemed to
have consensus on several points. First, most attendees
expressed reservations but assumed that President Obasanjo
would allow the election to go forward and the transfer of
power to occur. Second, all discussion of potential
presidential candidates centered on sitting governors and the
current vice-president. Third, all speculation on possible
candidates assumed that the next president would be from
either the South-South geopolitical zone (the area around the
Niger Delta) or the North. Finally, the group believed that
the region the candidate comes from will be important than
the political party he represents.

--------------
REVENGE OR RECONCILIATION
--------------


3. (C) Even with the recent cabinet and military shakeups,

it is not clear whether Obasanjo will seek revenge on those
who let him down. Three groups are at risk, his inner circle
who failed to inform him of the difficulties in gaining
passage of the Constitutional amendments, National Assembly
members and politicians who signed on to support his third
term efforts and his opponents in the anti-Third Term camp.
It is more likely that he will go after the second group, the
first group being too close and the third too far away.


4. (C) Even though the constitutional amendment is dead,
most do not believe the battle is finished. The feeling was
less articulated in this group than in others, but survived
as an undercurrent in the conversation. As Nigeria moves
towards elections, several issues remain outstanding: the
ongoing crises in the country, including the Delta, the
Middle Belt, the South East and the North give opportunities
to manipulate the environment to engineer a state of
emergency allowing Obasanjo to extend his tenure. Failure to
organize INEC and allow clean elections could give the
President the opportunity to remain in office until
"credible" elections can be held, filling his self-described
role as "Guardian of Democracy" (G.o.D.). Still, it is
possible that Obasanjo is sincere in his less-than-clear
statement that he intends to leave office in 2007. While the
group discussed politics as if an election would happen,
these interlocutors recognized that Nigeria has never had a
peaceful transition from one civilian regime to another and
that since 1993, arguably the freest and fairest poll in
Nigeria's history, elections have been problematic.

--------------
A NEW POLITICAL CONSTELLATION?
--------------


5. (C) Perhaps the thorniest issue is that of political
realignment. With the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP)
split into separate camps, each with their strengths and
weaknesses, and other politicians scrambling to find a party,
the prospects are good for a buildup of violence leading to
the election. Among the contenders, are former heads of
state Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and Muhammadu Buhari and Vice
President Atiku Abubakar in the North. In the Southwest

ABUJA 00001427 002 OF 002


former Presidential candidate Olu Falae, Lagos Governor Bola
Tinubu, and President Obasanjo are the key figures. The
Southeast hinges on Biafran leader Emeka Ojukwu, a
re-energized APGA and movements of the various Governors,
including the deposed Chris Ngige (Anambra State) and Orji
Kalu (Abia State) in and out of parties. The political
scene in the South-South is convoluted, but the Governors and
the Delta militant groups figure prominently in the equation.



6. (C) According to the group of discussants, the most
likely candidates for the Presidency are the 36 state
governors and the sitting Vice President. The consensus was
that because the Governors have had the opportunity over the
last term to build a war chest and some base of support,
their financial advantage would be critical. Similarly, the
group though the Vice President, as well as supporters of the
President, had been able to stash enough money away to make
themselves relevant in the political process. Other possible
candidates such as cabinet ministers or members of the
national legislature were discounted. The people present at
this gathering did not believe they have generally had the
opportunity to build sufficient patronage networks to be
effective candidates.


7. (C) First, the conversation focused on governors from the
South-South as potential presidential candidates. The region
receives a lot of attention because it is the source of the
nation's oil wealth as well as much civil conflict.
Governors Odili (Rivers) and Duke (Cross River) were
frequently mentioned as possible contenders. The general
opinion was that Odili was better prepared because he had
built a network across the region. The group discussed the
general merits of a candidacy from the South-South. If a
candidate was able to unify the zone's many ethnic groups and
get a foothold in the Southeast region, he might be able to
claim that a president from the South would be best suited to
calm tensions in the Niger Delta. At the same time, coming
from the South could be a liability, as Nigerians may not
support a candidate associated with the Delta's problems.


8. (C) Later, the conversation turned to Northern
candidates. Part of the grand bargain which allowed Obasanjo
to come to power in 1999 was that Northerners assumed power
would return to their region when he left office. The
Muslim-dominated North is united behind the idea of a
president from the region. Unfortunately, at present there
is no one candidate who has the region's support and perhaps
could gain some support from the South. The most likely
candidate was the current Vice President, and our
interlocutors believed he would at least make an attempt for
the presidency. However, the VP has openly split with
President Obasanjo and will have problems gaining support
within the PDP. There was also discussion of General Buhari
as a potentially strong candidate, although he was thought to
be less well positioned than Vice President Abubakar. Former
military leader Ibrahim Babangida was also mentioned as a
potential candidate, but the odds on his successful candidacy
were quickly dismissed by the group.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) While it is too early to predict what changes are in
store, the one clear message from this group as well as the
general public is that change is in the offing. A great
deal should become clearer within the next few weeks in terms
of who the likely candidates will be. For now, concerns
remain about the intentions of President Obasanjo, but most
appear ready to campaign in spite of the remaining
uncertainties. Whatever happens, though, it appears that the
main division in the Nigerian polity will produce two main
candidates, one whose credentials are personal loyalty to
Obasanjo and the other a product of consensus among the
political class and the voters. While everyone waits for the
dust from the third term to settle and some expect at least a
few surprised remain in the Presidency and the National
Assembly, one thing is clear: neither Nigerians nor outside
observers are comfortable predicting what Nigeria will look
like by the May 29, 2007 Inauguration Day.

FUREY