A TALE OF THREE CONTACTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001148

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: A TALE OF THREE CONTACTS


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell. Reasons: 1.5 (B & D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In meetings with National Secretary of the
ruling PDP Ojo Maduekwe on May 13 and PDP Senator Ben Obi on
May 15, they described these as the worst of times. Both
expected today's defeat of the third term agenda in the
National Assembly (septel) but worried that the actual end of
this issue would not come until President Obasanjo made a
public announcement and took actions to calm the polity.
While Maduekwe was hopeful, Obi warned that after the defeat
of the proposed constitutional amendments, Obasanjo could
become "more dangerous" and counselled caution as Nigeria
prepares for elections. In a separate meeting May 15, Vice
President Atiku Abubakar, echoed the themes presented by
these two, tending towards the viewpoint of Obi. Even though
the amendment process appears over in the National Assembly,
critics argue that other options remain on the table,
including ongoing instability and the possibility of meddling
in the electoral process to produce a situation allowing
President Obasanjo to extend his time in office through
emergency actions. END SUMMARY.

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ON OBASANJO
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2. (C) Ambassador met over the weekend with the National
Secretary of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) Ojo

SIPDIS
Maduekwe, an Abacha cheerleader in 1997 and Minister of
Transportation in President Olusegun Obasanjo's 1999
administration. Maduekwe commented that he, and others in
Obasanjo's former inner circle, "never expected Obasanjo to
behave this way." He said that had they known, they would
have advised him against his third term efforts early on. In
a separate May 15 meeting, PDP Senator Ben Obi, from Anambra
State, disagreed, stating that the "signs were there years
ago." He further commented that Obasanjo "had a history of
overstaying his welcome" but that, like in 1979, the Nigerian
political/military establishment would not allow him to
continue. Obi described Obasanjo as stubborn, vindictive and
cowardly. "If someone stands up to him, he will crumble,"
Obi said. Maduekwe said, though, that he believed that
Obasanjo had "a moral conscience" and would ultimately "do
the right thing."

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ON THE THIRD TERM
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3. (C) Both commented that the third term amendment could
not carry the National Assembly. Ojo said that Obasanjo was
depending on a shrinking circle of advisors to manage the
amendments, including only PDP Board of Trustees Chairman and
former Minister of Works and Housing Tony Anenih and Special
Advisors Andy Uba and Florence Ita-Giwa. Others, he said,
had fallen out of the circle for various reasons.


4. (C) Obi said that retired General T.Y. Danjuma had met
with Obasanjo last week and told him bluntly to leave office.
Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other sources confirmed
the gist of the meeting where, according to Obi, Danjuma,
ignoring all protocol, advised Obasanjo that his time was up.

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WHAT NEXT?
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5. (C) Both men cautioned that defeat in the National
Assembly would not be the end of the matter, although
Maduekwe was "hopeful" that the President would follow his
better instincts and step aside. Obi, on the other hand,
worried that once Obasanjo conceded defeat on the
constitutional amendment, "he would become more dangerous."
Obi stressed that three options remain. The first, he said,
was the ongoing instability in the Delta. "Remember I
advised that there could be no peace in the Delta until
questions of Obasanjo's extension were resolved," he said.
He believes that Obasanjo could manipulate the crisis to
declare a state of emergency in the country and attempt to
use that to justify the cancellation of elections for an
indeterminate period of time.


6. (C) Alternatively, Obi said that Obasanjo has
demonstrated that the Independent National Elections
Commission (INEC) could be manipulated to provide a pretext
for term extension. "The President could either suspend
preparations, claiming they were inadequate, or wait until a
faulty process had been concluded to step in as the statesman
capable of saving Nigeria from chaos. Both Maduekwe and the
Vice President concurred with this assessment, with Atiku
echoing Obi's statements almost verbatim.


7. (C) All three were worried about Obasanjo's state of
mind. While none specifically mentioned his spiritual
advisors, Maduekwe did express concern that the President's
"messianic streak" could entice him to "stay at all costs."
While Obi was less concerned about this issue, all were
interested in exploring the possibility of a face-saving
"soft landing" for Obasanjo. Atiku said that Governor Tinubu
(Lagos State, Alliance for Democracy) was willing to attempt
a reconciliation between the President and the Vice
President, but Atiku said this could not happen until "the
third term is off the table." Concerned about the
President's possible reaction they said they have been
exploring many options to convince Obasanjo to walk away,
through military, political, traditional and even
international messengers. They all commented, however, that
a future role for Obasanjo was important, whether through a
United Nations appointment, an African Union role, a
university position (such as Boston University's Balfour
African Presidents in Residence program),or some other
avenue to ensure President Obasanjo's acquiescence.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) The President could see the writing on the wall in
the aftermath of the past week's activities and might decide
to withdraw himself from the political process, perhaps
(according to Atiku) refusing to endorse a successor.
However, if these men are correct, the more likely scenario
is that Obasanjo will continue to explore exotic options to
extend his stay in the Aso Rock Presidential Villa beyond

2007.
CAMPBELL