POLITICAL SECURITY UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001008

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC EPET AF NI
SUBJECT: POLITICAL SECURITY UPDATE


Classified By: Classified by Amb. John Campbell for reason 1.4 (b)


1. (U) Summary: On April 10, 2006, the Ambassador and
Regional Security Officer met with heads-of-mission and
security officers from the Embassies and High Commissions of:
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Australia, Britain, and
Canada. The group discussed the increased security threats in
Abuja and the Niger Delta, and Obasanjo's possible third term
bid. Highlights of the discussion include an increase in the
British security posture in Abuja, organization of MEND and
the view of some participants that Obasanjo believes he is
Nigeria's "messiah." End Summary.

SECURITY SITUATION IN ABUJA


2. (U) The RSO opened the meeting by discussing the recent
increase in crime in Abuja. There was a consensus that this
was attributable to a shortage of MOPOL (Nigerian Mobilized
Police) because they have been redirected to deal with the
violence in the Niger Delta and that the police are regularly
going for long periods of time without being paid.


3. (C) The UK Deputy High Commissioner (UK-DHC) said that the
British High Commission (UK-HC) is now providing armed
escorts for all travel to and from the airport. He invited
other missions to join UK-HC convoys, noting the "safety in
numbers." He suggested that the missions consider sharing
security. The UK-HC's risk assessment is currently higher
than the Embassy's. The German Ambassador said that one of
his Embassy's armored vehicles, on the road to Lokojo, about
70 kilometers off the airport junction, was shot at by armed
robbers. The shot was directed at the driver's head but was
stopped by the bullet proof glass. The driver did not stop
the vehicle but continued driving until he reached a safe
area.

SECURITY IN THE NIGER DELTA


4. (C) When discussing the situation in the Niger Delta, the
UK-DHC said that Shell has told the UK-HC that they are
expecting things to get worse over the next year with more
attacks on expatriates. The UK-HC agrees with Shell's
assessment. Shell also told the UK-HC that it was still
profitable for them to be in the Niger Delta even with the
increase in violence and interference with production.


5. (C) The Nigerian fix to the current problem ) resulting
from an alliance of convenience among the criminals,
unemployed youth and local leaders ) could calm things
temporarily as it has in the past, but the underlying
problems would only increase and the next eruption of
violence could be even worse. The UKG is working with the
Nigerians on local development and would help with security
but not until Nigeria can enunciate a sensible approach and
commitment to the problems in the Delta ) something the
entire group agreed did not yet exist.


6. (C) The Italian Ambassador reported that an Italian
journalist went to the Niger Delta region at the beginning of
April and held meetings with all the stakeholders, including
the 'guerillas.' The journalist's impression was that the
stakeholders were in a state of total confusion. Calls on the
key state government officials led the journalist to suspect
that there were connections between them and the 'guerilla'
groups. In the opinion of the journalist, politics in the
Delta are more important than economic problems.


7. (C) According to the Italian Ambassador, the journalist
further noted that the Ijaw movement, which was once
factionalized, is now cohesive and operational under MEND,
referring to themselves as 'freedom fighters.' Based on the
journalist's interactions with MEND the group was very
organized with multiple layers to its leadership structure.
Attacks on the Italian company AGIP surprised the Italians
because AGIP was actually doing development work with the
local people and the attacks hurt the locals as well as AGIP.


8. (C) The group agreed that MEND had not enunciated what it
wanted. The UK-DHC questioned whether MEND was truly a
representative movement.

THIRD TERM


9. (C) The UK-DHC said that a recent British delegation to
the National Assembly found opponents to the third term
outspoken while supporters seemed sheepish.


10. (C) The Japanese Ambassador said that Obasanjo implied to
him that the PDP convention would be called as late as late
August or early September 2006.


11. (C) The Italian Ambassador reported that the day before
Obasanjo left for the USA (03/28/06) he spoke with the Africa
Representative for the Italian Prime Minister. Obasanjo did
not say that he was running but everything in his manner
suggested that he would be continuing his current activities
into a third term, e.g., the programs he was suggesting would
be meaningless without him continuing in power.


12. (C) An aide, 'very close to the President,' told the
German Ambassador that Obasanjo believes he is the "messiah"
who is meant to lead Nigeria to better shores and fears that
without a third term the reform work he has done will
disappear. Some of the other participants agreed on this
assessment of Obasanjo.


13. (C) On the question of stability, the UK-DHC and Italian
Ambassador both agreed that it was impossible to tell if
Obasanjo or someone else would create any more or less
stability in Nigeria because currently there is no strong
opposition leader to Obasanjo.


14. (U) Comment: The western diplomats are concerned about
the deterioration of security in Abuja, and are unfocused on
the likely possibility that Delta instability is the result
of more than merely criminal activity. End Comment.
CAMPBELL