Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUDHABI430
2006-02-08 12:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Cable title:  

ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW UAE FEDERAL CABINET IMMINENT

Tags:  PINR PGOV ETRD AE 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHRMDAB/COMUSNAVCENT
RHMFISS/COMUSCENTAF SHAW AFB SC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 000430 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR/B
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR AUSTR DONNELLY, DOUG BELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PINR PGOV ETRD AE
SUBJECT: ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW UAE FEDERAL CABINET IMMINENT

REF: A. 05 ABU DHABI 3211

B. 05 ABU DHABI 4905

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 000430

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR/B
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR AUSTR DONNELLY, DOUG BELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PINR PGOV ETRD AE
SUBJECT: ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW UAE FEDERAL CABINET IMMINENT

REF: A. 05 ABU DHABI 3211

B. 05 ABU DHABI 4905

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The announcement of a new UAE federal cabinet
is likely to be made soon after the 40-day mourning period
for the late UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Dubai
Ruler Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid al-Maktoum has passed.
Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed (AbZ) appears
slotted to become foreign minister, Maktoum's successor and
younger brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid (MbR),appears
set to keep the Defense portfolio, and Mohammed Khalfan bin
Kharbash, an instrumental player in our FTA negotiations,
could be replaced as Minister of State for Financial and
Industrial Affairs, according to Embassy contacts. Mariam
al-Roumi, the current under secretary for social affairs at
the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, would head a new
Ministry of Social Affairs and join Economy and Trade
Minister Sheikha Lubna al-Qassimi as the cabinet's only women
members. Another expected development, the breakup of the
Ministry of Justice, Islamic Affairs, and Endowments, in a
move to ensure more resources are devoted to teaching
moderate Islam in mosques and schools, was previewed for us
by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ)
during DEA Administrator Karen Tandy's visit in July 2005
(ref A).


2. (C) Summary continued: Announcements of a new Federal
National Council (FNC) and details about how the government
plans to elect half the council's membership, postponed due
to the mourning period, are likely to be announced in the
coming weeks, sources say. Once the new government is
announced, we expect a stable transition, with MbR playing an
active role as prime minister. End Summary.


3. (C) Speculation about the new UAE federal cabinet's makeup
and the inter-emirate negotiations over ministerial
portfolios have intensified during the mourning period for
the late Sheikh Maktoum. The general consensus among our
contacts is that cabinet decisions have been made between MbZ

and MbR and will be announced soon after the mourning period
for Maktoum is over (February 13). Our contacts also believe
that MbR will be a much more active prime minister than was
his late brother. The man responsible for so many of Dubai's
successes, including the free and open trading environment,
is said to be interested in spreading his philosophy across
the emirates and their institutions, especially economic
reform and education.

Foreign Affairs Portfolio
--------------


4. (C) Most believe that Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah
will become the UAE's next foreign minister, replacing Rashid
Abdullah al-Noaimi. AbZ's ascendancy in the foreign affairs
arena has been apparent for several years, capped last fall
by his attendance at the UNGA where he gave the UAE's plenary
speech. AbZ also has led UAE diplomatic efforts in Syria,
Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. The UAE's next
ambassador to Washington and an AbZ man, InfoMin U/S Saqr
Ghobash, has dropped hints, such as, "My boss is clever and
intelligent," and, "The Foreign Ministry will be run better
when there is a new government." AbZ has also been given the
task of coordinating the UAE's positions on difficult issues
)- such as natural resources -) in the ongoing FTA
negotiations with the U.S.


5. (C) Less clear is what his older brother, Hamdan, will do
next. Hamdan has been Minister of State for Foreign Affairs
since 1990, but since 2003, when he was appointed deputy
prime minister, he has shared the responsibility of running
Cabinet meetings with brother Sultan, the UAE's other deputy
prime minister. A source close to the ruling family told
Polchief that Sheikh Hamdan will become more active as deputy
prime minister, but no longer have the title as MinState for
Foreign Affairs.

Defense Portfolio
--------------


6. (C) Despite rumors that MbR would give up the defense
portfolio, which he has held since 1976, a source with access

ABU DHABI 00000430 002 OF 003


to the al-Nahyans insisted there will be no change. Since
the incorporation of Dubai's forces into the federal military
in 1997, MbR has had no role in the decisions, staffing, or
funding of the armed forces, leaving those responsibilities
to MbZ. MbZ served as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces
from 1993 until January 2005 when he was appointed Deputy
Supreme Commander of the armed forces. Given how hard MbR's
father, the late Sheikh Rashid, pushed during UAE federation
negotiations for Dubai to have the position, most believe
that Dubai would not give it up. According to chatter in one
majlis (open council meeting),Dubai Emirate wants to keep
the portfolio both for ceremonial purposes and because it is
good for business (i.e. Dubai Air Show). Some have suggested
that MbR's younger brother, Ahmed bin Rashid, who commanded
Dubai's forces prior to 1997, would take on the role. Others
said it could go to Major General Nahyan bin Zayed, commander
of the Emiri Guard.

Financial Affairs
--------------


7. (C) Although Mohammed Khalfan bin Kharbash, an
instrumental player in the ongoing U.S.-UAE FTA talks has
agreed to hold the next round of FTA negotiations in Abu
Dhabi the week of March 13, we have heard from two people
that he is apparently on his way out as Minister of State for
Financial and Industrial Affairs. An Embassy contact said
that ministry staff hoped he would not change ministries. He
also said that Kharbash has been very effective, allowing
Finance Minister Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid of Dubai to relax.
(Note: Kharbash is the de facto finance minister, with
cabinet rank. He had been very ill over the summer and has
cut his work schedule somewhat. Although he looked healthy
during the London round of FTA negotiations a week ago, an
Embassy contact confirmed that he would also go for a medical
checkup while he was in London, and still heeded orders "to
rest" when necessary. End Note.)

Other Portfolios
--------------


8. (C) Other possible changes in the expected cabinet
reshuffle include:

-- Social Affairs: The new cabinet will have two women with
the appointment of Mariam al-Roumi as Minister of Social
Affairs. Al-Roumi has been under secretary at the Ministry
of Labor and Social Affairs. In November 2004, Sheikha Lubna
al-Qassimi became the first UAE woman appointed to the
cabinet. Sheikha Lubna told a group of U.S. Congress interns
this week that she expected more women will be named
ministers, without saying how many or what portfolios.
(Note: Labor Minister Ali al-Kaabi would keep his portfolio.
End note.)

-- Islamic Affairs: The Ministry of Justice, Islamic Affairs,
and Endowments is being split up. Islamic Affairs will
become a separate organization, but without cabinet status.
MbZ previewed the split during DEA Administrator Karen
Tandy's visit in July 2005. He said the government wanted to
guarantee that sufficient resources are devoted to ensuring
that moderate Islam is preached and taught in UAE mosques and
schools.

-- Education: Sheikh Nahyan bin Mubarak would stay on as
Minister of Higher Education, and educational affairs would
again be split into a Ministry of Education and a Ministry of
Higher Education. The ministry's authority was weakened
after establishment in September 2005 of the Abu Dhabi
Education Council, chaired by MbZ. MbR, who is keen on
advancing educational initiatives, reportedly offered the
Education portfolio Economy Minister Sheikha Lubna, who is
the co-chair of the UAE's FTA team with the U.S. and the
UAE's lead negotiator for the UAE-Australia FTA negotiations,
but she refused.

-- Interior: A source close to the al-Nahyans maintains that
MinInterior Sheikh Saif bin Zayed is staying put. However,
usually credible and reliable sources at the ministry and Abu
Dhabi police have told the Embassy that Saif would be
replaced. Other sources say he had a dispute with MbZ over a
lucrative security communications contract involving Motorola
and Nokia. Saif owns the local Motorola distributorship and
elected to go with Motorola to purchase communications

ABU DHABI 00000430 003 OF 003


equipment. MbZ denied the contract because the armed forces
had purchased the Nokia system.

-- Homeland Security: Some Embassy officials have heard that
retired UAE Air Force Commander, Major General Khalid bin
Abdullah al-Buainnain, is being touted as head of a new
homeland security agency.

-- Information and Culture: Upon AbZ's departure for the MFA,
the ministry would be dismantled. AbZ would continue to
chair the board of governors of Emirates Media Inc., which
operates three satellite television stations and seven radio
stations.

-- Health: Hamad al-Midfa is rumored to be out as minister.

-- Presidential Affairs: This ministry would merge with the
Ministry of Supreme Council and GCC Affairs, with the
increasingly influential Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed remaining
as minister.

Limited Elections for the FNC
--------------


9. (C) President Khalifa announced in December 2005 that the
UAE would hold indirect elections for half the FNC membership
and continue to appoint the other half (ref B). The FNC
historically begins its two-year sessions in November, but
the council's inauguration is now three months overdue, in
part due to Maktoum's death. Election details will be
announced in the coming weeks, sources say.
SISON