UAE PRESIDENT FORMALIZES INDIRECT ELECTIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 003344

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016
TAGS: AE KDEM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: UAE PRESIDENT FORMALIZES INDIRECT ELECTIONS FOR
FEDERAL NATIONAL COUNCIL

REF: ABU DHABI 2655 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by Charge Martin Quinn, reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment: President Khalifa bin Zayed Al
Nahyan on August 15 formalized the UAE's move towards
indirect elections to half the seats on the Federal National
Council (FNC),the first national-level elections of any sort
in the UAE since the federation's 1971 establishment.
Minister for FNC Affairs Dr. Anwar Gargash said he expected
these elections to take place before the end of the year.
The decrees set in motion a process Khalifa announced last
December. FNC elections represent a step in the right
direction, but will not have an immediate impact on UAE
governance. End summary and comment.


2. (U) President Khalifa's August 15 decree on the FNC
selection process established a National Electoral Committee
to conduct and supervise the election of one half of the 40
seats in the Councils. Minister of State for FNC Affairs Dr.
Anwar Gargash will chair the committee; other members will
include
representatives from the Ministries of the Interior,
Presidential Affairs, Justice, Health, Culture, and Youth and
Community Development. Prior to the elections the
Committee's role will reportedly be to establish procedures,
dates, and locations for voting in each of the seven
emirates, and conduct awareness campaigns for both the
general public and the candidates themselves. Afterwards,
the committee will announce election results and arbitrate
subsequent disputes (a sometimes lengthy process, as seen in
other precedents in the region). Gargash announced
immediately after the decree that he expected the elections
to take place before the end of 2006.


3. (U) Khalifa issued a separate decree August 11 formalizing
the means of election. Each of the seven Amirs (rulers of
individual emirates) will appoint an electoral college, which
must have at least 100 times as many members as the emirate
has total representatives on the FNC. This electoral college
next votes on half of the representatives in the FNC; the
decree suggests that only these appointed electors are
eligible to compete in the elections to fill these seats.
Finally, each Amir directly appoints the other half of the
members representing each emirate. As an example, Abu Dhabi
and Dubai each have eight FNC members (more than the other
emirates). Their Amirs must appoint at least 800 electors,
who will elect four members of the new FNC. The Amirs will
then appoint the other four.


4. (C) All seven emirates reportedly have submitted lists of
potential electors, although the names have not been made
public. Habib Mullah -- currently an appointed FNC member
representing Dubai -- told PolOff August 16 that the
prominent tribes and business families in each emirate would
be heavily represented, and that therefore "no surprises" in
the FNC's composition would be likely. Mullah guessed that
most current members of the FNC, himself included, probably
would be listed as electors, if only because the group was
large enough for nearly every reasonably prominent citizen of
a given emirate to participate. The public announcement of
the electors, however, may illuminate the somewhat opaque
centers and balance of power in the various emirates.


5. (C) Mullah said he definitely would not/not run in the
elections, because to run and lose would demonstrate his
weakness and negate his chance of an appointed seat. He
added that he had a 50% chance of an appointment (since he
occupied one of Dubai's previous eight appointed seats --
which will now be limited to four),implying that he was
unsure of his chances of winning an election. Mullah
speculated that many other members would have similar
attitudes, which could make for a large number of new faces
when the new FNC is finally seated.


6. (C) Comment: The indirect election of half the FNC is a
cautious first step toward introducing democratic principles,
even by regional standards. Nonetheless, Khalifa's two
decrees -- along
with Gargash's public assertions that elections would take
place as previously anticipated before year's end (Al Bayan
headline claims four months) -- indicate that the UAEG is
serious about the initiative. We expect steady progress
towards establishing the electoral colleges now that the
National Electoral Committee has been named, a move which
Gargash told the Ambassador would be a "trigger...everything
else will follow quickly (reftel)." It may be premature to
assess public reactions to the decrees, but Mullah commented
that both government officials and the public were wary of
elections in general because of their perceived negative
consequences in Kuwait and Bahrain. Post will continue to
monitor FNC-related developments. End comment.
QUINN