UAE CENSUS RESULTS FINALLY RELEASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 003204

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, EB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2016
TAGS: SOCI ECON PREL AE
SUBJECT: UAE CENSUS RESULTS FINALLY RELEASED


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY CDA MARTIN QUINN FOR REASONS 1.4 (b)&(d)


1. (C) Summary: On July 30, the UAEG finally released
results of a census conducted months earlier. Minister of
Economy Sheikha Lubna Al-Qasimi reported that as of December
6, 2005 the UAE's population was 4.1 million, up from 2.4
million in 1995. UAE nationals account for just over 20
percent of the population (of which 51 percent of those
nationals are under age 20). Sheikha Lubna refuted the idea
that the 80-20 ratio of foreigners to nationals constitutes
an imbalance. The census estimated that 335,615 permanent
residents were not counted for unexplained reasons, but were
included in the 4.1 million total. Some sources question
whether the overall numbers reflect the true population, or
whether non-nationals were undercounted to show more robust
numbers for UAE citizens. End Summary.

What the numbers show
--------------


2. (U) Minister of Economy Sheikha Lubna Al-Qasimi's July 30
press conference offered the following data:

--- 4,104,695: Overall population of the UAE as of December
6, 2005.

--- 335,615: "Non-nationals" not counted in the census (but
included in the 4.1 million total population).


--- 824,921: UAE nationals counted in the census.

--- 2,944,159: Non-UAE nationals counted in the census.

--- Male/female ratio of UAE nationals is 50.7% / 49.3%
(418,057 males / 406,864 females).

--- Male/female ratio of non-UAE nationals is 72.3% / 27.7%
(2,128,986 males / 815,173 females).

--- The male/female ratio overall is 67.6% / 32.4 %
(2,547,043 males / 1,222,037 females).

--- 51.1% of UAE nationals are under the age of 20, while
38.1% are under the age of 14.


3. (U) The census also counted buildings (336,815) and
housing units (863,860),the majority of which are located in
the Emirates of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Population breakdown
among the seven Emirates is as follows:

--- 1,292,119: Abu Dhabi.
--- 2,200,309: Dubai
--- 724,859: Sharjah
--- 197,571: Ras Al Khaimah
--- 189,849: Ajman
--- 118,617: Fujairah
--- 45,756: Um Al Quwain

Dominant Trends
--------------


4. (C) The UAEG has felt some pressure to affirm, through
this census, that the ratio of UAE nationals is on the rise.
In 1995, the ratio was about 15%. Current data suggests that
a high birth rate (estimated at 15.5% in recent years) is
responsible for a significant increase in the local UAE
national population, with over half of the population now
under the age of 20. The foreign population has been
bolstered by an expanding economy and increased demand for
construction labor. In fact, many local contacts assume that
the number of workers -- particularly in the booming
construction industry -- is in fact larger than the census
accounts for. Some suggest that the delay in releasing the
data may have given the UAE time to manipulate the figures to
indicate a higher ratio of nationals.


5. (C) Sheikha Lubna's announcement also cites an estimated
335,615 permanent residents that were not counted for
unspecified administrative reasons (although they are
included in the announced total population and factored into
the UAE/non-UAE ratio. On August 2, Abdul Qader Al Masawi,
Acting Director of the Statistics Department in the Ministry
of Economy told EconOff that any person legally employed in
the UAE, including laborers and domestic servants, was
counted in the census. (Comment: It is unlikely that the
huge number of construction workers and domestic servants in
the UAE were thoroughly counted in the census. According to
the Embassies of the seven primary source countries: India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the

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Philippines, the estimated total number of people working in
the UAE as laborers and domestic servants alone is almost
three million. Prior to launching the 2005 census, some
estimated that the UAE population was over five million. End
comment.)


6. (SBU) Regarding the roughly 20/80 mix of citizens to
expatriate residents, Sheikha Lubna noted that "The UAE has
been smart in attracting economic and human capital in terms
of intelligence and creativity. It is in our interest to
continue our strong economic growth." She also said she did
not see the ratio as an imbalance.


7. (SBU) An expanded -- and very young -- citizenry raises
challenges for the UAEG. On July 31, English language daily
Gulf News quoted Dr. Mohammad Amerah, an Abu Dhabi economist,
as saying, "The huge growth in the number of Emirati youths
may put pressure on government expenditures for education,
healthcare and other services." He also said there is an
urgent need to create new employment opportunities for the
large number of UAE nationals under the age of 20.

Delayed announcement
--------------


8. (C) On April 5, EconOff met with Majid Sultan Al-Ali,
Director of the Central Statistical Department, regarding the
anticipated census results, which had been expected to be
released in March. Al-Ali did not provide any concrete data,
but mentioned that Sheikha Lubna had the census figures and
would "release them shortly." He did not know the reason for
the delay, but said he expected the new figures to be lower
than previously anticipated. Al-Ali explained that the
results would be lower because the UAEG used the "de facto
method" of counting persons physically present in the country
during the 1995 census including many temporary visitors, but
used the "de jure method" in 2005, which counts permanent
residents, as opposed to only those physically present at the
time of the census.


9. (C) Anticipating concerns about the validity of the
results, Al-Ali stressed that one should not believe
"outsiders" who may argue the 2005 census figures are too
low. He also said that the census figures could be off by as
much as 5 to 10% to account for people who were not counted.
Al-Ali specifically gave the example of not being able to
count the ambassador because "census officials cannot
approach her house since it is surrounded by guards." Post
is aware of several other foreigners who also were not
personally counted.

Tabloid cartoon
--------------

10. (U) On August 6, the Arabic language weekly tabloid
Emaratalyoum, published a cartoon which depicts two UAE
nationals conversing. The first speaker says, "Have you
heard the recent statistics of our country's population
census? It says that we represent 21%. Can you imagine?"
The second speaker responds, "Thank God, because whoever
looks at our streets would think we are only 5%."


11. (C) Comment: The UAEG may be manipulating the census
data by publishing results which are lower than the true
expatriate population of the UAE. For political reasons, the
UAE is not likely to acknowledge that the percentage of UAE
nationals has decreased since 1995, which is possibly the
case. Based on the final numbers, it does not appear likely
that all of the estimated three million Asian laborers and
domestic workers in the UAE are accounted for in the 4.1
million figure. If the UAEG did undercount, its low
population estimates may cause problems in planning future
services for the continuous stream of expatriate labor in the
UAE -- a stream which is not likely to decrease as the
construction and economic boom continues. Low estimates
could also mean poor services for laborers in spartan worker
camps (where many live as squatters with little
infrastructure),more commuters on crowded highways than
planners anticipated, and crowded schools and health care
facilities. End comment.
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