VP/PM MOHAMMED BIN RASHID ON COUNTERPROLIFERATION,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002772

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR T, ISN/CPI, PM/FO, NEA/ARP
USDOC FOR BIS DMCCORMICK, DJACKSON,WWYSONG
NSC FOR FTOWNSEND, DSTEPHENS, EABRAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: PARM PREL PGOV ETTC IR IZ AE
SUBJECT: VP/PM MOHAMMED BIN RASHID ON COUNTERPROLIFERATION,
IRAQ CONCERNS

REF: A. STATE 102501 (NOTAL)

B. ABU DHABI 2688

C. ABU DHABI 2633

D. DUBAI 3067

E. DUBAI 3996

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (S/NF) Summary: On July 1, Ambassador met with Sheikh
Mohammed bin Rashid (MbR),UAE Vice President and Prime
Minister, at MbR's request. Ambassador underscored USG
concerns on the need for the UAEG to pass export control
legislation and provided MbR with a copy of ref A nonpaper,
which had been furnished earlier to FM Sheikh Abdullah bin
Zayed (refs A, B). Although Sultan bin Sulayem, Executive
Chairman of Dubai Ports, Customs and Free Zones, described at
length the difficulty the UAE faces in enacting an export
control law, MBR interrupted and stated, "We can make the law
and will control what we can." Turning to Iraq, MBR (who
also holds the title of UAE Minister of Defense) expressed
concern that within a year, Iraq will be in a full-scale
civil war. MBR also mentioned ongoing counter-terrorism
cooperation, the FTA, Minister of Economy Sheikha Lubna's
recent visit to Washington, two recent high-profile arrests
of Americans in Dubai, and a U.S. company's problems with a
Dubai proposed land development deal during the one-hour
session. End summary.


2. (U) On July 1, Mohammed bin Rashid (MBR),UAE Vice
President and Prime Minister, invited the Ambassador to his
Dubai palace for a general discussion. Mohammed Abdullah Al
Gergawi, UAE Minister for Cabinet Affairs; Sultan bin Sulayem
(SBS),Executive Chairman of the Ports Customs and Free Zone
Corporation; Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed al Maktoum, MBR,s
son and Head of Dubai Bank; a Dubai General Department for
State Security representative and Dubai PolEconoff
(notetaker) were present.

"We can make the (export control) law"
--------------


3. (S/NF) Ambassador thanked MbR for UAE cooperation on the
joint US-UAE Counterproliferation Task Force and cooperation
from federal and local law enforcement on
counterproliferation issues. She noted that she had met with
Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed (AbZ) the week
before to discuss the USG's plans to take a number of
immediate steps to address the continuing problem of
diversion of goods from the UAE to Iran,s WMD and missile
programs. She noted the poor record of verified end-users
documented by the recent USDOC Sentinel trip. The Ambassador
also provided MbR with a copy of the "Improving the UAE
Counterproliferation Record" nonpaper and a copy of her
recent letter to Dubai General Director for State Security
Mohammed al Qemzi on the role of the USDOC/BIS export
controls attache and the Sentinel program.


4. (S/NF) Ambassador also emphasized the importance of the
UAE passing an export controls law that includes control
lists and enforcement mechanisms. She asked MbR, in his new
role of UAE Prime Minister, whether the Cabinet might pass
the draft export control legislation before the July 10
recess. At this point, Dubai Ports, Customs and Free Zones
Chairman Sultan bin Sulayem launched into well-worn excuses
about the difficulty controlling the re-export and
transshipment of goods -- particularly to Iran -- and the
fruitlessness of sanctions. However, MbR interrupted Sultan
and said, "We can make the law and control what we can" (he
did not offer a timetable, however). The Ambassador thanked
MBR for his attention to the issue, and for the UAE's recent
decision to endorse the Proliferation Security Initiative.


5. (S/NF) Ambassador noted that the export controls attache
sought to promote legal trade between the U.S. and the UAE
and to ensure that U.S. dual-use goods entering the UAE were
used in accordance with U.S. export control laws and
regulations. She described the Sentinel program, noting that
USDOC's Office of Export Enforcement sends personnel abroad
to visit the end-users of sensitive controlled commodities
and determines whether these items conform with license

ABU DHABI 00002772 002 OF 002


conditions.

Civil War In Iraq Inevitable
--------------


6. (S/NF) MBR warned the Ambassador that civil war in Iraq
would break out in a year, adding that he believed that
there was little that could be done to stop it. MbR said
that he and other UAEG officials maintained open channels
with "both sides" in Iraq (presumably Sunni and Shi,a). He
blamed the growth of militias and poor administration by the
Iraqi government as the factors in a deteriorating situation.



7. (S/NF) The Ambassador recounted Ambassador Khalilzad's
recent visit to Abu Dhabi and the USG,s support for PM al
Maliki's goals of eliminating militias and promoting national
reconciliation. She welcomed UAE input on the disarming and
reintegration of the Iraqi militias and noted USG
appreciation for the UAE's offer to organize meetings with
Iraqi government officials and UAEG energy officials and oil
businesses to foster energy sector cooperation. MBR said the
UAE was "ready to help" in Iraq but expressed doubt that the
militias would be easy to dismantle. He groused that Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki's administration was "doing nothing
for the Iraqi people."

Investment, FTA and Other Topics
--------------


8. (C) Ambassador asked MbR, who is also Ruler of the Emirate
of Dubai, for the views of the Dubai business community on
the ongoing FTA negotiations (the Dubai Chamber of Commerce
has been the most strident of the UAE's critical voices on
the FTA). MBR said that the Dubai population remains split
on the FTA, but agreed that public outreach by both sides was
important. MbR briefly noted ongoing counter-terrorism
cooperation. MbR said that Minister of Economy Sheikha Lubna
Al Qasimi's recent visit to Washington had been productive,
and that Sheikha Lubna had recommended sending additional
UAEG representatives to the United States to to reduce
"misunderstandings" (likely a reference to Dubai Ports
World). MBR also discussed two recent high-profile arrests
of Americans in Dubai(refs D, E).


9. (C) Ambassador then raised McKinley Reserve/Capital
Partners' problems with a stalled land development deal in
Dubai -- RiverWalk -- and noted growing Congressional
interest in the dispute. MbR was surprised to hear of the
difficulties with the project and summoned Mohammed Abdullah
Al Gergawi, Minister for Cabinet Affairs, to comment on the
issue. Gergawi said the company had defaulted on its
payments and noted that "other issues" exist. Gergawi
pledged to follow up on the issue and to have Ahmed bin Byat,
Executive Chairman of TECOM Investments -- the UAE party to
the deal ) call on the Ambassador with further information.

SISON