BASHAR'S EXPECTED TRAVEL TO GULF

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 000256

SIPDIS

NEA/FO, NEA/ARPI, NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY AE
SUBJECT: BASHAR'S EXPECTED TRAVEL TO GULF

REF: SECSTATE 11443

Classified By: DCM Martin Quinn, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) On January 25, DCM presented reftel points to MFA
Asst U/S Tariq Al-Haidan (former UAE Ambassador to Syria).
He seemed surprised at the subject of the demarche but
indicated that he had heard nothing at all of a proposed
visit by Bashar Al-Asad. Al-Haidan alluded to Bashar's
recent consultations with the Saudis, Egyptians and Qataris,
but took careful note of our point that Syria would be
inclined to exploit the opportunity of a UAE visit. Although
observing that Syria had no choice but to cooperate with the
West and with the UNIIC investigation, he implied that the
UAEG might be hard pressed (based on the rules of Arab
hospitality) to refuse a formal visit request by another Arab
head of state. Syria, he noted, was in a much weaker
position than Iran.


2. (C) He commented that the Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister
during a recent visit to UAE told him that Syria was "fully
ready to cooperate with the Americans, even to the point of
putting U.S. forces on its border with Iraq." On former
Syrian VP Khaddam's recent statements, he stated that
Khaddam's views are personal, based on his own grievance, and
have no ideological foundation.


3. (C) Pressed on Syria's lamentable record of human rights
violations at home and support for terror groups abroad,
Al-Haidan expressed the conviction that Syria would
eventually move toward internal reform in 2-3 years once the
old guard of Asad Senior departed the scene. He expressed
concern that continued Western pressure on a weakened Syrian
government might result in toppling one of the region's
secular regimes.


4. (C) Comment: UAE Ambassador-designate to Washington,
Saqr Ghobash, told PolChief two weeks ago that the Al-Nahyan
ruling family of Abu Dhabi became friends with Bashar when
their respective fathers were alive and running their
countries. This explains why this generation of Al-Nahyans
is reluctant to apply too much pressure on Bashar. Given
this, UAE is not likely to refuse a Bashar visit, but may not
go too far in endorsing him.
SISON