UAE THINK TANK DIRECTOR SPEAKS OUT ON IRAN, IRAQ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 001948

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IR IZ AE
SUBJECT: UAE THINK TANK DIRECTOR SPEAKS OUT ON IRAN, IRAQ,
AND THE UAE

ABU DHABI 00001948 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MICHELE J. SISON, REASONS 1.4 (
B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: On May 10, al-Ittihad, a semi-official Arabic
daily, published an exclusive interview with Jamal Sanad
al-Suwaidi, Director General of the Abu Dhabi-based
quasi-governmental think tank, Emirates Center for Strategic
Studies and Research (ECSSR). Al-Suwaidi, an honorary Major
General in the armed forces is a long-time confidant of Abu
Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ).
Al-Suwaidi spoke broadly on the issues of Iran's nuclear
ambitions, the possibility of stability Iraq, and the outlook
of democracy in the UAE and the broader Middle East. He
warned that Iran,s nuclear ambitions may set off a regional
arms race, and that the U.S. is exaggerating the threat that
Iran poses in an effort to justify a preemptive strike
against Iran, drawing a parallel to what took place against
Iraq. Al-Suwaidi's comments are not typical of those that we
have heard from either MbZ or other UAEG interlocutors. The
fact that these statements came from the head of ECSSR, and
were published in a newspaper with UAEG ties, appears to
indicate that al-Suwaidi's statements may actually represent
MbZ's thinking, and that MbZ wants these points made public,
but not as part of the official dialogue between the UAEG and
USG. End Summary

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Iran
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2. (U) Al-Suwaidi cautioned GCC member states that allowing
Iran to develop nuclear weapons may set off an arms race in
the region, specifically noting that Turkey, Egypt and Saudi
Arabia would all seek nuclear weapons if Iran were
successful. He stated that if Iran became a nuclear power,
the entire region would be permanently destabilized.
However, he added, without a nuclear weapon, Iran poses no
real threat to the region as their conventional weapons lack
sophistication, noting that a torpedo recently tested was of
World War II vintage. When asked if the UAE would join the
nuclear race and seek its own nuclear weapons, he said that
will depend on Iran's situation in the future.


3. (U) Al-Suwaidi acknowledged his belief that the U.S. and
EU are intentionally magnifying Iran's potential threat, as
they did with Iraq, in order to justify future action. He
stated that what is happening now is a deliberate and
conscious magnification of Iran's power for the sole purpose
of justifying a strike against it and eliminating its
military power. He noted that if the U.S. and EU do not
strike Iran, then the most likely threat against Iran would
come from Israel. When asked if GCC countries would be
threatened if there is a war between Iran and the U.S.,
al-Suwaidi said that the Iranian weapons are likely directed
at known enemies such as Israel, but that if war were to
break it would undoubtedly affect Gulf countries due to the
large foreign presence in each country.


4. (U) Asked why Iran is knowingly accepting its power to be
exaggerated, al-Suwaidi stated that the undeniable fact is
that Iranian President Ahmedinejad is launching "incendiary
statements" betting that the U.S. will not strike, and
counting on the U.S. remaining preoccupied in Iraq.
Al-Suwaidi speculated that there would be no war between the
U.S. and Iran, but noted that if the situation does worsen,
the U.S will likely launch a quick strike on Iran's main
military bases, but then not go beyond that. He added that
such a strike would be unlike any seen before, using new
missiles and weapons technology that have not been previously
deployed. He suspects that the Iranians also suspect this
and are afraid of such an attack becoming reality.

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Iraq
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5. (U) When asked whether the solution to the situation in
Iraq was the return of the Baath party and a Saddam-like
regime, al-Suwaidi wondered how anyone could even suggest
such a thing. He said that what Iraq is currently witnessing
is a natural result of the years of Saddam and Baath rule.
He stated that Iraq is currently going through a critical
phase and called on people to rise above party and sectarian
differences which have replaced the voice of reason,
victimizing the people of Iraq. He added that the situation
in Iraq is unhealthy at all levels and that it will take at
least 20 years to stabilize. He stated that now Iraq has rid
itself of a dictator, it will never yearn again for such a
ruling power.

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Democratization

ABU DHABI 00001948 002.2 OF 002


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6. (U) On the issue of opening up the political process in
the UAE, al-Suwaidi said that he personally believes that
there will be no political parties in the near or foreseeable
future in the UAE. He stated that in order for political
parties to be established, two important elements need to
exist: political will/decision explicitly allowing them, and
the existence of an internal environment that would allow
different political groupings to draw together and form a
party; neither of these elements currently exists.


7. (U) Al-Suwaidi said that the U.S. is not serious about
promoting democracy, evidenced by its failure to acknowledge
Hamas' success in the recent Palestinian elections. He added
that he suspects that the U.S. is not ready to deal with
Islamist movements in the Arab world in positions of
authority. He stated that one should accept an election,s
results no matter what they may be. He noted that U.S.
rejection of Hamas and acceptance of "forged elections"
against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt indicate that the
U.S. is worried about having Islamists in authority.


8. (U) Asked about the political direction Western countries
have taken in recent years, al-Suwaidi said that they have
become as extremist as al-Qaida. He stated that the evidence
is seen in the U.S. closing a number of mosques in American
cities, detaining Guantanamo prisoners without trial for four
years, and arresting innocent people. He added that, in an
effort to protect the American people after 9/11, the
security situation did improve, but that it has now turned
into an obsession against Arabs and Muslims who are
constantly under attack in the media.

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Comment:
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9. (C) Established in 1994 by MbZ to provide him with
intelligence analysis in his role as Chief of Staff of the
UAE Armed Forces, the ECSSR is now nominally independent, but
maintains its focus on regional security issues, with MbZ as
its president or patron. Al-Suwaidi has been the Director
General of ECSSR since its inception. Al-Ittihad is a
semi-official Arabic daily that commonly publishes all UAE
government (WAM) press releases verbatim. These two facts
combined lend credence to al-Suwaidi's published statements
as having possibly emanated from elements of the UAEG if not
from MbZ himself. End Comment.

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Bio Note
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10. (C) Having earned a Ph.D. in Political Science from the
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, al-Suwaidi also
occasionally teaches at UAE University. He has been very ill
for months, with EmbOffs noting that he looks like "a man at
death's door", although his cancer may now be in remission.
He has authored and edited several books on Iran and Gulf
Security. End Note.
SISON