Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABIDJAN991
2006-09-01 16:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abidjan
Cable title:  

COTE D'IVOIRE: UPCOMING SUMMITS IN YAMOUSSOUKRO

Tags:  PREL KPKO PGOV ASEC IV 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0991/01 2441650
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011650Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1865
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1421
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0341
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000991 

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KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2016
TAGS: PREL KPKO PGOV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: UPCOMING SUMMITS IN YAMOUSSOUKRO
AND NEW YORK


Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000991

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SIPDIS

KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2016
TAGS: PREL KPKO PGOV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: UPCOMING SUMMITS IN YAMOUSSOUKRO
AND NEW YORK


Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary. So far President Gbagbo is saying he will
not attend the Secretary General's September 20 mini-summit
on Cote d'Ivoire in New York, but he might change his mind
under pressure from the Secretary General and his African
counterparts. Prime Minister Banny and all the opposition
leaders will attend. The five principal Ivoirian leaders
will first meet among themselves here in Yamoussoukro
September 4. We do not expect much decision-making to come
from either meeting. The Yamoussoukro meeting will likely
reach no consensus on power-sharing after October, and the
Ivoirians will take their poles-apart positions to New York.
Gbagbo, or his representative, will continue to insist that
he needs no international mandate to extend his own term in
office as is, while the opposition will counter that the
international community must remove him immediately. In New
York, the international community will likely have little
appetite to intervene here any more directly than it has
already. Instead, the meeting will likely task ECOWAS and
the AU with figuring out what to do about the sorry state of
the Ivoirian peace process, as happened last year. At the
end of the day, the Security Council will probably be asked
to endorse essentially a rollover of the current
arrangements. This does not bode well for the prospect of
getting to elections even by October 2007. End Summary.


2. (C) Mariama Bayard-Gamatie, Political Director at ONUCI
(the UN Operation in Cote d'Ivoire),told us August 30 that
President Gbagbo has not yet responded to the Secretary
General's invitation to attend the September 20 mini-summit
on Cote d'Ivoire in New York on the margins of the General
Assembly. Gbagbo's press spokesman Desire Tagro told us
September 1 that President Gbagbo will probably not go, but
will likely send Laurent Fologo, President of the Economic
and Social Council, to represent him. Tagro noted that
Gbagbo had told Secretary General Annan July 5 when Annan

first proposed this meeting that he didn't understand the
purpose of it and did not want to attend. Tagro said that
Gbagbo intended, in his response to Annan's letter of
invitation, to reiterate his view that the Security Council
should look in the first instance to AU mediator South
African President Mbeki for an assessment of the current
state of the Ivoirian peace process, rather than convoke a
high-level meeting in New York to decide what will happen
here after October. However, Alcide Djedje, Cote d'Ivoire's
new UN Permanent Representative, told the Ambassador
September 1 that although Gbagbo so far is saying he will not
go to New York, he is likely to come under heavy pressure
from the Secretary General and African leaders to change his
mind, and in the end he might do so.


3. (C) Alphonse Djedje Mady, Spokesman for the RHDP (Rally of
Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace -- the grouping of the
four main political opposition parties),and Secretary
General of the PDCI (Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire, the
party of former President Bedie),confirmed to us August 31
that Bedie will attend the New York meeting. The same day,
Sidiki Konate, Director of Cabinet for rebel FN (New Forces)
leader Guillaume Soro, confirmed to us that Soro will attend.
Amadou Coulibaly, Communications Director for the RDR (Rally
of Republicans),the party of former Prime Minister Ouattara,
confirmed to us September 1 that Ouattara will also attend
the new York meeting.


4. (C) ONUCI Political Director Bayard-Gamatie told us that
Prime Minister Banny has also not yet responded to his
invitation, presumably waiting for Gbagbo to announce whether
he will go. On September 1, Jacqueline Oble, Banny's
Principal Advisor, told us she saw no reason whey the Prime
Minister would not go to the New York meeting, but for the
moment he is focusing on the meeting he has called with the
four principal Ivoirian leaders in Yamoussoukro September 4.


5. (C) RHDP spokesman Djedje Mady and FN Cabinet Director
Konate also confirmed to us that all three principal
opposition leaders will attend Banny's September 4 meeting.
The opposition leaders had been balking at attending,
accusing Banny of having broken commitments made at previous
such meetings. Djedje Mady explained to us that this was a
reference above all to Banny's decision to bow to President
Gbagbo's demand that the procedures for registering
undocumented Ivoirians and foreigners be changed. He said
that Banny and all four principal leaders, including Gbagbo,
had agreed at their July 5 mini-summit with Secretary General
Annan that the pilot identification project was a success and
that the same procedures would be used to finish the process.
Djedje Mady said the opposition leaders had not yet received

ABIDJAN 00000991 002 OF 002


an agenda for the September 4 meeting, but that they intended
to demand that Banny explain why he incorporated the
complaints of Gbagbo's FPI (Ivoirian Popular Front) party
into the revised procedures without consulting the opposition
parties or the Cabinet.


6. (C) As for the New York Meeting, Djedje Mady said the
opposition parties were still formulating a joint position on
what the post-October transition should look like, but that
they were all adamantly opposed to any extension of Gbagbo's
term. They believe there is no chance of elections or
national reconciliation as long as Gbagbo stays in power.
Djedje Mady said that the opposition is also very
dissatisfied with Prime Minister Banny, because they believe
he has not exercised the enhanced powers envisioned by UNSCR
1633 but rather has allowed Gbagbo to keep full powers.
However, they do not favor changing the Prime Minister after
October because too much time would be lost waiting for a new
government to get itself up to full speed. Instead, they
hope that with Gbagbo out of the picture, Banny would no
longer be afraid to do his job properly.


7. (C) Comment. We do not expect much decision-making to
come from either the Yamoussoukro meeting or the New York
meeting. The Ivoirians among themselves are extremely
unlikely to come up with anything approaching consensus on
power sharing after October. Instead they will take their
poles-apart positions to New York. Gbagbo, or his
representative, will continue to insist that he needs no
international mandate to extend his own term in office as is,
while the opposition will counter that the international
community must remove him immediately. With little appetite
evident among the international community at this point to
intervene here any more directly than it has already, the New
York meeting will likely only take note of the sorry state of
the Ivoirian peace process and task ECOWAS and the AU with
figuring out what to do about it. This process will probably
play itself out pretty much as it did a year ago. At the end
of the day, perhaps in early or mid-October, the Security
Council is likely to be asked to endorse essentially a
rollover of the current arrangements for another year. This
does not bode well for the prospect of getting to elections
even by October 2007. End Comment.
Hooks