COTE D'IVOIRE: ONE WEEK LATER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000086

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2007
TAGS: PGOV ECON IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: ONE WEEK LATER

REF: A. ABIDJAN 51

B. ABIDJAN 62

Classified By: Econoff KTsai for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. One week after protesters and the Young
Patriots took over the streets of Abidjan, the city has
ostensibly returned to normal. President Gbagbo's Ivoirian
Popular Front (FPI) party has withdrawn its threat to quit
the government, businesses are open again, and the city
almost feels as if last week's events never happened.
However, underneath the surface of back-to-business, last
week's events did have an impact: it left the peace process
in disarray; traumatized the residents of Abidjan; reminded
business people how susceptible their investments are to the
unstable political environment; and demonstrated to the
international community, especially the UN, how quickly
foreigners can become targets. For the UN and the NGOs in
Western Cote d'Ivoire, last week's events resulted in serious
damage to their operations. As Cote d'Ivoire stumbles
towards the October deadline for elections, one can expect
events similar to last week's to recur, resulting in further
damage to business confidence, to international community
confidence, and to the peace process. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The pretext for the Young Patriots taking to the
streets and the FPI pulling out of the peace process was the
International Working Group's recommendation that the mandate
of the National Assembly should not be extended. In reality,
the events of last week were an operation prepared in advance
by President Gbagbo to show Prime Minister Banny who is
running the show in Cote d'Ivoire (ref A). Indeed, Banny has
been diminished in both power and stature after last week's
events. Not only has Banny been put in his place, but he has
now also been set up for failure.


3. (C) As Prime Minister, Banny is responsible for the
disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) process.
It will be quite a diplomatic feat if Banny, who himself
went into hiding for a brief period of time last week, can
convince the New Forces that they will not be attacked, but
in fact will be welcomed to join the government, and
therefore should disarm. Without DDR, the FPI will continue
to stall the election process, and may even use the lack of
DDR as a reason to pull out of the peace process again. It
is highly unlikely that the New Forces will disarm anytime
soon, and the blame will be laid at Banny's feet.


4. (C) On the economic front, businesses had to shut down
while the streets were barricaded. We received reports of
two American companies evacuating their expatriate employees
to Ghana. Stores that stayed open, such as the large
supermarkets owned by Lebanese, had armed guards protecting
their interests. When businesses did reopen after four and
five days, those with perishable items had to dump their
stock.


5. (C) While we have received no reports of physical damage
to businesses, the already tenuous investor confidence has
been shaken once again. The volatile political situation
makes it challenging to keep businesses running - from the
basic ability to open for business to more complicated
decisions such as determining the most efficient amount of
stock to minimize losses in the event of forced store
closings. Business people are also concerned for their
personal safety just traveling to work. The American Chamber
of Commerce in Cote d'Ivoire has suspended its activities for
the time being.


6. (C) The most obvious damage has been sustained by the UN
and humanitarian organizations in the West. As reported in
ref B, the Guiglo offices of UNHCR, WFP, OCHA, UNICEF, IOM,
Save the Children, Caritas, Solidarites, and GTZ were all
attacked. On January 24, Abdoulaye Mar Dieye, the UN
Humanitarian Coordinator, told us that estimates of damage to
UN facilities in Guiglo were now approximately USD 2.7
million and expected to increase as more information comes
in. The UN is fielding a series of teams to assess the
security situation in Guiglo and determine whether or not
they can resume operations in the region. However, they
would now do so without the presence of UN military forces
who left Guiglo after the attacks.


7. (C) COMMENT. The barricades are down for now, but the
Young Patriots and the FPI have seen how easily they can
paralyze the city. The events of last week were not the
first time, and nor will they be the last time people take to
the streets. And as these events recur, further diminishing
the prospects of October elections, 2006 may begin to look
strikingly similar to 2005: no disarmament, no elections, no
reunification. The political parties will continue to blame
each other and look towards the international community for
both guidance and scapegoats. Meanwhile, the international

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community will continue its attempts to maintain peace and
broker a solution that no side seems to want. In that sense,
Cote d'Ivoire has returned to business as usual. END COMMENT.
Hooks