COTE D'IVOIRE: PRIME MINISTER,S PEACE TRAIN STUCK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABIDJAN 000694

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO EFIN IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PRIME MINISTER,S PEACE TRAIN STUCK
AT DISARMAMENT

REF: A. ABIDJAN 647

B. ABIDJAN 658

C. ABIDJAN 686

D. ABIDJAN 688

Classified By: Poloff PGwyn for reasons 1.4 b&d


1. (C) Summary. Prime Minister Banny's peace train is stuck
for the moment at the disarmament station. The Armed Forces
of Cote d'Ivoire (FANCI) say they have completed the initial,
pre-regroupment phase of the disarmament, where combatants
are assembled at designated sites under their own command
structure. However, it appears that the rebel New Forces
(FN) have barely started pre-regroupment, and the pro-Gbagbo
militias refuse to start it at all. Those FANCI and FN
forces which have been pre-regrouped are badly in need of
food, medicine and other basic supplies -- otherwise their
leaders tell us they will not be able to keep them at the
sites. The inability of the FN and FANCI even to agree on
what should be the central issue in their ongoing talks
highlights how deeply the two sides still mistrust each
other. The issue of financing is also becoming increasingly
important. It is critical for the Ivoirian government's
current bond issuance to succeed so that it can clear its
World Bank arrears, and for the government's own 2006 budget
not to get caught up in the ongoing wrangle over the powers
of the National Assembly in the transition to elections.
Without money to fuel it, the train may have trouble
departing this station. End Summary.


2. (C) Prime Minister Banny has taken to using the image of a
peace train, on which he urges all parties to stay aboard as
it carries the nation toward elections. However, for the
moment at least, the train appears stuck at the disarmament
station. After some movement over the last month, the three
sides involved in the process appear to be once again at an
impasse.


3. (C) The first phase of the disarmament process is supposed
to be pre-regroupment, where former combatants from the FN,
the FANCI, and the pro-Gbagbo militias in the West are
assembled at designated locations under their own command
structure. In the second phase, regroupment, ex-combatants
are to be assembled in larger numbers at fewer locations
under the control of international peacekeeping forces.
Eventually they are to surrender their weapons and be either
demobilized or integrated into new, combined armed forces.


4. (C) After many delays, the pre-regroupment phase finally
started May 18, timed to coincide with the beginning of a
pilot identification program, in keeping with the
painstakingly achieved political agreement to move forward
with disarmament and identification simultaneously. It was
to be completed within 45 days.

FANCI


5. (C) For FANCI, pre-regroupment was relatively
straightforward, a matter of withdrawing troops to FANCI
barracks. FANCI has announced that they have completed their
pre-regroupment, having assembled a total of 12,547 troops at
35 sites throughout the government zone. However, FANCI
Chief of Staff General Philippe Mangou has presented the
PNDDR (the National Program for Disarmament, Demobilization
and Reintegration),which is overseeing the whole DDR
process, with a list of urgent needs such as medicine and
tents to keep the FANCI soldiers in the pre-regroupment
camps.

MILITIAS


6. (C) The pre-regroupment of pro-Gbagbo militias in the West
was supposed to start June 8. The militia leaders postponed
the date three times (refs A and B),citing concerns about
security for their men and delays in FN pre-regroupment. On
June 20 the militia leaders met in Abidjan with FANCI Chief
of Staf Mangou and PNDDR Chairman Ouassenan Kone to air
their concerns. Denis Maho Glofiei, the chief leaer of the
western militias, told the Defense Attche June 26 that the
militias were upset that the Prime Minister had refused to
meet with them. He said the meeting with Mangou and Kone had
not adequately addressed their concerns and the militias were
not planning to start pre-regroupment any time soon. Maho
said security was their primary concern -- they do not trust
ONUCI to protect their men at the pre-regroupment sites after
ONUCI troops were so easily chased out of Guiglo in January.
(Note: It was the militias who routed them.) PNDDR contacts
told us that although the militia leaders said they were
concerned about the security of their men, in reality they
appeared to be more focused on receiving enough bodyguards
and 4X4 vehicles for themselves. Maho said the militia
leaders would meet among themselves July 6 in Guiglo, without

ABIDJAN 00000694 002 OF 003


FANCI or PNDDR. Maho did invite the Defense Attache to
attend.


7. (U) However, On June 28, Pastor Gammi, one of the other
western militia leaders, announced publicly that he was
satisfied with the results of the June 20 meeting and urged
his men to begin moving to the pre-regroupment sites.

NEW FORCES


8. (C) Pre-regroupment was not as straightforward for the FN
as it was for the FANCI because they had no barracks to
withdraw to, having destroyed all the FANCI barracks in their
areas during the 2002 rebellion. Initially they were to
assemble at 100 locations throughout the areas they control,
but they eventually reduced that number to 50. The New
Forces announced in a press conference on June 23 that they
had pre-regrouped 12,885 soldiers in 31 sites. However, the
commanders of the UN Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (ONUCI) and
the French Licorne peacekeeping force told the International
Working Group (IWG) the same day that the FN had thus far
only occupied 7 of the planned 50 sites. On a more positive
note, FN leader Guillaume Soro confirmed at the same IWG
meeting that the FN would allow UN and French peacekeepers to
enter their sites to verify that pre-regroupment was actually
taking place.


9. (C) Sidiki Konate, Director of Cabinet for Guillaume Soro,
told us June 21 that the FN continued to hope to complete
pre-regroupment by the end of the month. However, he said
the FN were very concerned by delays in the pre-regroupment
of pro-Gbagbo militias in the West, because assembling FN
soldiers at pre-regroupment sites made them vulnerable to
surprise attack.


10. (C) The FN pre-regroupment sites are basic encampments
throughout the countryside in rebel-held areas, with no real
support structures for the men. Poloff visited one of these
sites at Botro, near the rebel capital of Bouake, on June 26.
The site was a former prefecture building in a regrettable
state of disrepair. There was no running water and the
bathrooms were unusable. Cherif Ousmane, Boauke Zone
Commander for the FN, told us that the UN was supposed to
deliver water regularly but had not done so in ten days. The
ceilings of the building had either collapsed or were
crumbling, though the roof was intact. A chalkboard
indicated that the total number of troops at the site was 79.
Ousmane said that food, water, medicine, electricity and
better housing conditions are urgently needed to keep the men
inside the camps.

POST-DISARMAMENT


11. (C) Another disarmament-related issue on which progress
is stalled is the restructuring of the armed forces. The
Linas-Marcoussis Agreement stipulated that, in the context of
disarmament, the government would restructure the armed
forces to provide for the reintegration of some of the FN
with the FANCI, but it didn't say how or when this would
happen. Questions about this restructuring/reintegration are
at the top of the list of FN priorities in the ongoing talks
between the FN and FANCI chiefs of staff. The FN want
agreement now on the formation of a combined FN/FANCI joint
staff, in part to assure no retribution against FN soldiers
who rejoin the FANCI after disarmament, and in part to assure
a role for the FN in providing security for the upcoming
elections. The FN also want former FANCI soldiers who joined
the rebellion but will now be reintegrated with FANCI to
retain their current ranks (many have been promoted to much
higher ranks in the FN),and they want such FN soldiers to be
paid their salaries retroactively to the beginning of the
rebellion. FANCI refuses even to discuss any of these
demands, arguing that such issues only distract from the task
at hand of going forward with disarmament without delay. The
latest round of FN/FANCI talks, scheduled for June 29-30 in
Bouake, broke up a day early over these three restructuring
issues, though the two sides did agree to meet again July 6.

COMMENT


12. (C) We should have a better sense of how badly
pre-regroupment may be stalled after the next round of
FN/FANCI talks and the upcoming conclave of western militia
leaders, both on July 6. The inability of the FN and FANCI
even to agree on what should be the central issue in their
ongoing talks highlights how deeply the two sides still
mistrust each other. The issue of financing is also becoming
increasingly critical for the success of disarmament. In
turn, this makes it all the more important for the Ivoirian
government's bond issuance to clear the country's arrears
with the World Bank, which closes at the end of this month,
to succeed. It also casts a spotlight on the government's

ABIDJAN 00000694 003 OF 003


own 2006 budget, which could well become caught up in the
ongoing political wrangle over the powers of the National
Assembly after its mandate expired December 15. Prime
Minister Banny told the IWG that he had no intention of
submitting the budget to the Assembly for approval (ref C),
and the agreement which representatives of the President,
Prime Minister, President of the National Assembly and all
the parliamentary groups signed on June 23 contained implied
assurances that the Assembly would not take up peace
process-related legislation (ref D). However, President
Gbagbo, who has the right to submit legislation to the
Assembly, and his FPI (Ivoirian Popular Front) party, which
controls the Assembly, could well assert that the budget is
not peace-process related. Without money to fuel it, the
peace train may well remain stopped for now at the
disarmament station. End Comment.
Hooks