Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABIDJAN51
2006-01-18 16:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abidjan
Cable title:  

COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO SHOWS BANNY WHO'S BOSS

Tags:  PGOV ASEC IV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4918
OO RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0051 0181629
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 181629Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0825
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1251
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000051 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO SHOWS BANNY WHO'S BOSS

Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000051

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO SHOWS BANNY WHO'S BOSS

Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).


1. (C) While the pretext for the current unrest is the
International Working Group's recommendation that the
mandate of the National Assembly not be extended, it is
clear that the real aim is to undermine Prime Minister
Banny. We have indeed heard that the National Assembly's
mandate is a "red line" issue for the rank and file from
President Gbagbo's Ivoirian Popular Front (FPI) party, but
they were much more upset over the announcement of Banny's
cabinet, in which the FPI's influence was significantly
diminished. In any case these are not spontaneous protests
-- Gbagbo is clearly orchestrating them, capitalizing on
the anger of his supporters but deliberately aiming to
undermine Banny's government from the outset.


2. (C) In this he has succeeded. The incidents of the past
few days show clearly that Banny has no control over
security forces, while Gbagbo can call out his followers at
will to disrupt order with impunity. With Banny forced
into hiding, and Ivoirian Radio and Television (RTI)
commandeered by the protesters, the power-sharing
arrangement envisaged by UNSCR 1633 has failed its first
big test, and the Ivoirian peace process is once again in
disarray. It will not be possible to simply patch it back
together. The international community will need to come up
with a new approach to put this country back on the path to
elections. For a start, some way needs to be found to
bolster the authority of the prime minister, to allow him
to carry out the task of leading this country to elections
in less than ten months.


3. (C) President Obasanjo coming to Abidjan might help to
get the Young Patriots off the streets, but will probably
not address the more fundamental problem of real authority
for the Prime Minister. That will need to be addresed,
however, if the Prime Minister is to survive the crisis in
incubation. The events of this week suggest it is time to
look seriously at sanctions.

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