COTE D'IVOIRE: THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000369

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE PEACE
PROCESS


Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary. As expected, The peace process is going
through ups and downs. Pro-Gbagbo militias are threatening
to take to the streets as they did in January, this time over
the sequencing of identification vis a vis disarmament.
Preliminary results indicate that only about 20 percent of
students in the North passed the recently held examinations.
President Gbagbo abruptly canceled a cabinet meeting after
New Forces (FN) leader Soro chaired one the previous day in
his capacity as acting Prime Minster. However, the chiefs of
staff of government and rebel armed forces had a cordial
though inconclusive meeting, their first since July. African
Union President and Congolese President Sassou is visiting
Abidjan April 6-9. We can only hope that Sassou's
intervention will help break the current deadlock over the
sequencing of identification and disarmament, perhaps by
persuading the Ivoirians to go forward with both
simultaneously. End Summary.


2. (C) Perhaps the most discouraging development this week
was the threat by sanctioned militia leader Eugene Djue to
repeat in late April the street disturbances of January, when
pro-Gbagbo militias put up roadblocks all over Abidjan and
attacked UN installations, unless Prime Minister Banny
suspends his plan to issue national identification cards
until the FN disarm. With the next meeting of the
International Working Group (IWG) scheduled for April 20,
Djue undoubtedly also meant to warn the IWG to stay out of
the debate over the sequencing of identification and
disarmament. The thuggish Federation of University and High
School Students of Cote d'Ivoire (FESCI) threatened to
heighten its protests against plans by the Minister of Higher
Education, who is from the opposition RDR (Rally for
Republicans) party, to reopen the University of Bouake, the
capital of the rebel-held North. Young Patriots leader
Charles Ble Goude announced plans to hold a big pro-Gbagbo
youth rally next week.


3. (C) Another discouraging development was the release of
preliminary results from the school examinations that were
recently held in the North for the first time since 2003.
The results indicate that only about 20 percent of the
students passed their exams. Though unfortunate, this is
perhaps not very surprising. The school system in the North
has been limping along with the help of mostly volunteer
teachers, after the government withdrew most of the regular
teachers in 2002. In addition, the students had very little
time to prepare for the exams. The announcement was made
only a week or so before the exams were given, and many
students had to travel considerable distances to the testing
centers.


4. (C) Also a bit discouraging, though petty, was President
Gbagbo's abrupt cancellation of a Council of Ministers
meeting after FN leader Guillaume Soro had chaired a Council
of Government meeting the previous day. A Council of
Government meeting is a cabinet meeting chaired by the Prime
Minister and attended by the President. A Council of
Ministers meeting is a cabinet meeting chaired by the
President and attended by the Prime Minister. Soro, number
two in the government, chaired this week's Council of
Government meeting when Prime Minister Banny fell ill.
Gbagbo apparently did not want to chair a Council of
Ministers meeting the next day with Soro attending as acting
Prime Minister.


5. (SBU) On the positive side, General Phillipe Mangou, Chief
of Staff of the FANCI (Armed Forces of Cote 'Ivoire),and
General Soumahila Bakayoko, Chief of Staff of the FAFN (Armed
Forces of the New Forces) met on April 4. This was their
first meeting since July 31. The discussions were reportedly
cordial though inconclusive. Bakayoko tabled a 19-point FAFN
plan for the successful completion of disarmament and the
reintegration and restructuring of the armed forces. The
plan calls for the Prime Minister to issue a decree creating
a structural and legal framework for these
military-to-military talks to continue. The plan also calls
for the creation of a combined joint command, identification
"of the population and combatants," dismantling of both the
pro-Gbagbo militias and the 4000 "New Recruits" who were
hired into the defense and security forces from the ranks of
the militias, and the return of civil administration to the
north. It does not go into the sequencing of these steps vis
a vis disarmament.


6. (SBU) Another somewhat encouraging development was the
announcement that Sassou Nguesso, President of the Republic

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of the Congo and current President of the African Union,
would visit Abidjan this week April 6 -8, to meet with Cote
d'Ivoire's political leaders as well as to meet with COREP --
the committee of local representatives of members of the IWG.


7. (C) Comment. This sequencing issue is a very serious
obstacle to the peace process, and we can only hope that
Sassou's intervention will help break the current deadlock.
At this point the Gbagbo camp is insisting that disarmament
must come first, while the FN camp is insisting that
identification must come first. Perhaps the Ivoirians can be
persuaded to go forward with both processes simultaneously.
End Comment.
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