GBAGBO OFFERS PROPOSALS, NOT SOLUTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 001402

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV
SUBJECT: GBAGBO OFFERS PROPOSALS, NOT SOLUTIONS

REF: ABIDJAN 1316

Classified By: Ambassador Aubrey Hooks, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a speech made December 19 evening,
President Gbagbo offered five proposals designed to bring the
country out of crisis: (1) direct talks with the Forces
Nouvelles (FN) rebels aimed at encouraging them to disarm and
free the country; (2) elimination of the Zone of Confidence;
(3) creation of a national youth service program; (4)
submission of a bill for general amnesty to the National
Assembly; and (5) assistance to persons displaced by the war.
At this point these are simply proposals; it remains to be
seen how much follow-through Gbagbo gives them. These
proposals allow him to create the illusion that he is in
control of the political process, while in fact they do not
amount to much, and certainly are not a solution to Cote
d'Ivoire's deep political crisis. As usual, Gbagbo does
things by halves: he did not form a new government as
expected, nor did he make mention of the Prime Minister, the
identification process, UNOCI, or Licorne. Opposition PDCI
dismissed his proposals as hot air and noted that Gbagbo
continues to test the international community's resolve to
enforce UNSC 1721. END SUMMARY

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Proposals
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2. (C) In a rather clumsy attempt to reach out to the rebels,
Gbagbo announced his intent to establish a direct dialogue
with the Forces Nouvelles aimed at disarming the rebels and
liberating the country, language unlikely to reassure the FN
leadership. Gbagbo maintained that after implementing
Marcoussis, Accra and Pretoria, "Cote d'Ivoire has satisfied
all of their demands." In a one-sided interpretation of
events, he noted that the resolutions and accords have
focused only on disarmament. His speech did not mention the
issue of identification, which the rebels have stated is
their principal demand. Secondly, giving no indication
whether the UN or the FN had been consulted, the President
proposed to eliminate the zone of confidence. Gbagbo
asserted that there is no possibility of renewed hostility
and Ivoirians are tired of the war. Thirdly, the President
announced a plan to train, employ and support with lodging
and a monthly stipend a cadre of 40,000 youth (including
former combatants) and place them in 18-month public service
jobs throughout the country. The President did not mention
how the government would fund the national service proposal,
although he contended money was available. Considering the
government's fiscal difficulties (reftel),it seems unlikely
that the money exists to train and support 40,000 youth.
Fourth, although the National Assembly was dissolved in
December 2005, Gbagbo announced his intention to submit a
bill to the National Assembly offering general amnesty to
ex-combatants and government officials for all crimes except
crimes against humanity and economic crimes. He noted that
the 2003 amnesty law was no longer in force. Finally, Gbagbo
pledged to offer government assistance to persons displaced
by the war, but again did not explain how the government
would implement or fund such a program.

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Moving Away From the International Community and Toward
Elections in July
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3. (C) Characteristically dismissive of the work of the
international community, Gbagbo noted at the beginning of his
speech, "after 4 years and 3 months since the beginning of
this crisis, none of the adopted solutions have brought
peace....All those who have helped us: foreign powers,
friendly states, international organizations, intermediaries
of all ranks have done what they could to solve the crisis
for us. We should not want them to do it without
success....It is time that Ivorians appropriate for
themselves, completely, the peace process." Gbagbo closed by
noting that "the only way to power is through elections, and
fair and free elections will be held in July 2007."
According to the President, Articles 35 and 48 of the
constitution allow the President to extend his mandate until
elections are held, an interpretation with which the
Constitutional Court concurs. COMMENT: This point raises
the question of the legitimacy of the National Assembly and
its ability to legislate a new general amnesty law. Although
Gbagbo announced that elections will be held in July 2007, he
did not offer a timeline to prepare the country. Considering
that the identification process is stalled and the Forces
Nouvelles have rejected the Prime Minister's proposal for the
audiences foraines, elections by July are simply not in the
realm of the realistic. END COMMENT

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ABIDJAN 00001402 002 OF 002


Opposition Viewpoint
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4. (C) Gbagbo made no mention of Prime Minister Banny or the
expressed will of the international community as embodied in

1721. A senior opposition PDCI leader, Assistant Secretary
General Michel Benoit Coffi confirmed today in a meeting at
the Embassy the morning after the speech that Banny was
neither consulted on the content of the speech nor on any
aspect of these proposals during their talks in recent weeks.
Mr. Coffi remarked, "Gbagbo knows his limits with the
international community and he does not want to cross line.
That's why he did not dissolve the government." Nonetheless,
he commented Gbagbo continues to push against the line in
order to see how far he can go without retribution. Coffi
categorically dismissed all of Gbagbo's proposals as
contradictory and unconstructive, saying that Gbagbo was
"talking air." He assessed that eliminating the zone of
confidence is a ploy to encourage UN and Licorne forces to
leave Cote d'Ivoire since demanding their departure outright
would overtly provoke the international community. He also
noted that the national service program could be used to
favor some ethnic groups over others or be used to employ
those youth belonging to ruling FPI party-supported militias.



5. (C) COMMENT: Gbagbo's speech falls far short of the most
pessimistic expectation, namely firing the Prime Minister and
forming a new government. The proposals themselves are vague
and largely unrealistic. They are neither decrees nor
concrete policies he intends, at this point at least, to
implement unilaterally. A key example concerns the zone of
confidence. While eliminating the zone of confidence under
the right conditions would be productive in enabling the
process to move forward, such conditions do not currently
exist. It is broadly reported in the press and embassy
sources note that government troops harass travelers entering
the zone of confidence from the south. Earlier this week a
group of traditional chiefs returning from Yamoussoukro after
meeting with the Prime Minister were held by government
troops on the government side of the zone of confidence.
Clearly, the situation is too volatile to dissolve the zone.


6. (C) Gbagbo tends to do things by halves. The realization
of these proposals depends on the Forces Nouvelles, the
international community, and at least for the third and fifth
proposals, significant funding, all of which are unrealistic.
Nonetheless, what Gbagbo did not say is just as important as
what he did say. It does not appear that the President
consulted with the Prime Minister, FN or international
peacekeeping operations beforehand and except for the Forces
Nouvelles, he does not mention them in his speech. While
Gbagbo did not explicitly mention the Prime Minister or say
that he will form a new government, Gbagbo's real intention
is to provoke Banny into resigning by humiliating him and
usurping his authority, thereby making the way for Gbagbo to
form his own new government at some point, hoping a fatigued
international community will allow him to do as he will.
Abidjan is waiting for Banny's response. END COMMENT
Hooks