GBAGBO HEADED FOR COLLISION COURSE WITH OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABIDJAN 001316

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: GBAGBO HEADED FOR COLLISION COURSE WITH OPPOSITION
AND INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

REF: A. A) ABIDJAN 1004


B. B) ABIDJAN 1276

Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: President Gbagbo unexpectedly reinstated
three senior officials who were implicated in the toxic waste
disaster but are stalwarts in Gbagbo's FPI (Ivoirian Popular
Front) party. He also sacked the director general of the
state-owned newspaper, Fraternite Matin, for carrying a
report that Gbagbo had agreed with Prime Minister Banny that
UN Security Council Resolution 1721 is the only way out of
the crisis, and he dissolved inter-ministerial councils
overseeing the management of both Fraternite Matin and the
Port of Abidjan. The President's actions came on the heels
of the November 22 publication of a report that was strongly
critical of these three officials for their incompetence and
negligence in the toxic waste affair. Prime Minister Banny
responded by issuing a communique condemning Gbagbo's actions
as counter to the principles of good governance and press
freedom, and strongly urging that their implementation be
deferred. All of the major opposition parties also strongly
condemned Gbagbo's reinstatement of his cronies on the heels
of the publication of the report. Gbagbo counter-moved by
sacking the director of state television, for broadcasting
what Gbagbo's press spokesman called a "seditious" communique
from the Prime Minister.


2. (C) This is a serious political confrontation.
Reinstating the senior officials, replacing the editor of
Fraternite Matin, and dissolving the inter-ministerial
oversight bodies are provocative acts but they fall within
Gbagbo's broad executive powers under the constitution.
Nevertheless, Banny is right that these actions fly in the
face of good governance and press freedom, as well as the
spirit of peace and reconciliation and the will of the
international community. Gbagbo stepped over the line when
he sacked the RTI director, which is a direct violation of
the Pretoria Agreement. Rumors are now flying in Abidjan
that Gbagbo plans to form a new government composed entirely
of members of the FPI and its satellites. If he takes this
next step, he will break the political process completely by
setting the opposition outside it, bring the peace process to
a halt, defy UNSCR 1721, and thereby set himself on a
collision course with the opposition and the international
community. End Summary.


3. (SBU) In a series of Sunday afternoon moves that took
Abidjan by surprise, on November 26 President Gbagbo
forcefully asserted his authority by issuing six decrees,
reinstating three close allies who had been suspended from
their duties by Prime Minister Banny for their implication in
the notorious toxic waste scandal, and deposing a Banny ally
as director general of state-owned newspaper Fraternite
Matin. Gbagbo also dissolved the inter-ministerial
Administrative Council of the Port of Adidjan and the
inter-ministerial Commission of Fraternite Matin. The
President's actions followed the November 23 publication of a
hard-hitting report by a judicial committee of investigation
appointed by Banny that was unsparing in its criticism of the
three senior officials' laxity and incompetence in the toxic
waste episode.


3. (C) The November 22 report by the National Commission of
Inquiry on Toxic Waste, headed up by jurist Madame Fatou
Diakite spread blame for the tragedy widely and named names
explicitly. It accused the ex-Minister of Transprt, Anaky
Kobena -- currently leader of the oppoition party MFA
(Movement of Future Forces) part, but embroiled in a nasty
intra-party power strggle -- of gross negligence. Kobena
was jettisoed in the Prime Minister's September cabinet
shufle, while three other senior officials implicated n the
scandal, all FPI stalwarts, had been suspeded from their
duties on orders of the Prime Minster since September 16.
The report criticized Drector General of Abidjan Port Marcel
Gossio (a particularly close Gbagbo crony, financier of
Gbagbo's presidential campaign and reputed chief financier
for a range of FPI-connected activities including the
pro-Gbagbo militias) for his marked lack of interest in the
matter, even after the scandal began to unfold. Regarding
Customs Director General Gnamien Konan, the report cites his
lack of understanding of his job as well as weak leadership
of his organization. In castigating Djedji Amondji, Governor
of the Abidjan District, the report pointed to his failure to
respond to the crisis, when he did not close the Akouedo
garbage facility (where the worst of the dumping occurred)
until weeks after the initial discoveries, allowing many more
people to be affected, and he did not offer any assistance to
affected populations despite the gravity of the situation.

ABIDJAN 00001316 002 OF 003




4. (SBU) In effect defying the damning report, President
Gbagbo issued decrees limiting the suspension of the three
senior officials to three months, which will allow them to
resume their positions on December 16. In addition, the
President abolished the Port's Board of Directors; the
failure of Gossio and others to properly convene this
inter-ministerial Council in the toxic waste scandal was a
key finding of the report. The President's decrees were
perhaps presaged by a four-hour demonstration by port workers
and Young Patriots at the Port of Abidjan on November 20
demanding the reinstatement of Gossio. Protesters insisted
that Gossio's suspension is simply an offensive launched by
the opposition PDCI (Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire) to
control the Port of Abidjan. The Chairman of the Board for
the Port of Abidjan, Ange Barry Battesti, and the Minister of
Infrastructure, Patrick Achi, are both PDCI members. The
protest caused the closure of offices and the halt of port
operations, and resulted in one policeman being hurt and ten
arrests, although all were later released.


5. (SBU) In justifying his moves, Gbagbo's spokesman
acknowledged the gravity of the charges against the senior
officials implicated in the toxic waste scandal, but waved
them off by simply saying their failings in the matter were
'personal' and by going on to promise a vigorous
investigation into the criminal responsibility of those
responsible for the deaths of several and sickening of
perhaps thousands.


6. (SBU) Simultaneously, President Gbagbo sacked the
newly-installed Director General of state-owned daily
Fraternite Matin (ref B),Leon Lebry, and installed an
interim DG in his place. The President's spokesman cited a
November 23rd front-page article, which reported that Gbagbo
had agreed with Banny that UNSCR 1721 is the only way out of
the crisis, as reason to dismiss Lebry. Tagro noted that the
President would "never agree to such a breach of Cote
d'Ivoire's sovereignty," and that such a "gross example of
the publication of false, manipulative assertions" could not
be tolerated. Similarly to his move related to the Ports
Administration Council, Gbagbo abolished the
inter-ministerial Commission charged with overseeing the
management of the most widely read, and respected, newspaper
in Cote d'Ivoire.


7. (C) In a first, Prime Minister Banny went public to
explain his disagreement with Gbagbo's actions. On the
evening of November 27, the Secretary General of the Prime
Minister's office appeared on TV to read a communique
expressing Banny's surprise and dismay at Gbagbo's decrees,
and urging that their implementation be postponed. Banny
argued that Gbagbo should not have acted without consultation
with the prime minister and the government, and that his
actions ran counter to the principles of good governance and
freedom of the press. Banny lamented in particular that
Gbagbo reinstated the three senior officials just as the
government was considering what further actions to take in
response to the report on the toxic waste disaster.


8. (C) President Gbagbo wasted little time responding to
Banny. On the evening of November 27, gendarmes entered the
premises of Ivoirian radio and Television (RTI),reportedly
to confiscate the tape of the Prime Minister's communique so
it could not be rebroadcast. (The full text of the
communique was eventually carried in the following morning
morning's edition of several newspapers.) The gendarmes left
the premises after several hours, and it was not clear
whether they had taken the tape with them. However, at 1:00
p.m. in the afternoon of November 28, President Gbagbo's
spokesman Desire Tagro appeared on TV to read a presidential
communique announcing the dismissal of the director of state
television and the TV board of directors, and the appointment
of a Gbagbo ally to replace him. Tagro said the director had
been fired for allowing a "seditious" communique to be
broadcast.


8. (C) Banny was not alone in condemning Gbagbo's decrees.
All of the major opposition parties expressed outrage at the
reinstatement of these three senior officials who had been
found to be culpable in the toxic waste disaster. Rebel FN
(New Forces) leader Guillaume Soro called Gbagbo's actions
"unacceptable" and a spokesman for the RDR (Rally for
Republicans) called for Gbagbo's dismissal. Needless to say,
Gbagbo's FPI reacted with jubilation.


9. (C) Comment: (C) Gbagbo clearly is pushing for a
confrontation. Reinstating the three senior officials,
replacing the editor of Fraternite Matin, and dissolving the

ABIDJAN 00001316 003 OF 003


inter-ministerial commissions overseeing Fraternite Matin and
the Port were provocative acts but they fall within the broad
executive powers granted to Gbagbo under the constitution.
Thus, these actions cannot be called illegal, though Banny is
right that they fly in the face not only of good governance
and freedom of the press, but the spirit of peace and
reconciliation embodied in the many peace agreements that all
of the Ivoirian parties have signed, including the FPI.
However, Gbagbo stepped over the line when he sacked the
director of RTI, which was a direct violation of the Pretoria
Agreement. Rumors are now flying in Abidjan that Gbagbo
plans to form a new government composed entirely of members
of the FPI and its satellites. If he takes this next step,
he will break the political process by setting the opposition
completely outside of it, bring the peace process to a halt,
defy UNSCR 1721, and thereby set himself on a collision
course with the opposition and the international community.
Gbagbo can issue a decree forming a new government, but he
will find it impossible to govern that way. End Comment.
Hooks