THE CYCLES OF THE IVOIRIAN POLITICAL CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 001037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

KINSHASA FOR BRAZZAVILLE; EUCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL IV
SUBJECT: THE CYCLES OF THE IVOIRIAN POLITICAL CRISIS


Classified By: AMBASSADOR AUBREY HOOKS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Cote d'Ivoire is currently at an impasse, which is the
most vulnerable point in the cycle that characterizes the
political crisis. The cycle is composed essentially of four
stages. First, the principal political actors sign a new
agreement to relaunch the political process. Secondly, the
agreement starts to break down during implementation (the
devil is always in the details). Thirdly, an impasse is
reached. Finally, a (new) mediator convokes the political
actors who sign a new agreement and the cycle repeats itself.
Each time the cycle repeats itself, some progress is made,
but never enough to bring the country out of crisis.


2. (C) The political process is again broken. Prime Minister
Banny and his Government resigned on September 6, and
although commissioned by President Gbagbo to form a new
government, he has so far been unable to do so. The
Government administration is now in a holding pattern until a
new government is formed. Moreover, the peace process has
broken down again. The identification process and DDR,
including military talks on reintegration of the rebel forces
into the armed forces of Cote d'Ivoire (FANCI),have by and
large been abandoned.


3. (C) The political actors are more inclined to get into
mischief when the political process breaks down. President
Gbagbo is more likely to send the Young Patriots and other
militias into the streets to intimidate the political
opposition. The likelihood of his doing so goes up when he
seeks to reinforce his political position as a new mediation
effort takes over or when he seeks to undermine a new
agreement, in effect hastening the breakdown of the
agreement. It was during a similar impasse that he launched
the attack against the rebels in November 2004. The
political opposition, however, is becoming bolder and more
willing to confront the Young Patriots in the streets, as we
saw in late July in Grand Bassam and other cities. We are
not aware of any specific activity being planned at this
time. We are also not aware of any unusual activity on the
part of the armed forces, although some interlocutors express
concern that the military may be tempted to intervene when
the politicians cannot come to an agreement.


4. (C) Given this current impasse in the lead-up to the
meeting of the African Union in New York on September 18 and
of the meeting of heads of state which UNSG Koffi Annan has
organized for September 20, now is a time of greater
uncertainty. The Embassy remains in close contact with all
the major actors in order to detect early warning signs of
impending trouble.
Hooks