MESIC AND KOSOR HEADING FOR SECOND ROUND IN

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000006

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO, BENEDICT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: MESIC AND KOSOR HEADING FOR SECOND ROUND IN
CROATIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. ZAGREB 02210

B. ZAGREB 02002

C. ZAGREB 01601

D. ZAGREB 01571


1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: President Stjepan Mesic fell one
percent short of the simple majority he needed for a first
round re-election on January 2, finishing the day at 49
percent of the 2.2 million votes cast. He will face Croatian
Democratic Union (HDZ) nominee Jadranka Kosor, who received
20 percent of the vote, in a two-candidate runoff on January

16. The biggest surprise was clearly the third-place
candidate, a Croatian-American businessman who stunned
political analysts with a finish just below 18 percent,
nearly edging Kosor out of the second round. The remaining
ten candidates each finished below 3 percent. NGO observers
reported no irregularities at the polls. Mesic, who finished
first in all 21 Croatian electoral districts, is expected to
win an easy second round victory, but the HDZ political
machine is likely to kick into high gear in the next two
weeks and could turn out enough voters to partially erode
Mesic's 30-point lead. It remains to be seen whether Miksic
voters, who apparently were looking for new faces in Croatian
politics, will go for Kosor on January 16 ) or perhaps not
vote at all. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

MIKSIC STEALS THE SHOW
--------------


2. Boris Miksic, a Croatian-American who immigrated in the
1970s and made a fortune in composite plastics in his adopted
home state of Minnesota, shocked the country as he led Kosor
in exit polls until the diaspora vote was counted, dropping
him to third place. Miksic, who personally funded all of his
5-million kuna (USD 1 million) campaign (nearly twice what
Mesic spent),tapped into disaffected right-of-center
voters, frustration with a HDZ government that they feel has
focused on Euro-Atlantic integration at the expense of
domestic priorities and conservative values.


3. Miksic's finish illustrates a call for new faces in
Croatian politics. He entered the race in November as a
relatively unknown figure, having unsuccessfully run for
parliament in 2003, and actually withdrew before the election
date was announced due to what he said was the media ignoring
his campaign. Apparently enough newspapers noticed his
departure to prompt him to quickly re-enter the race. He
focused his campaign on improving Croatia's economy, which he
said should be done before entering EU negotiations. He also
gathered some far right votes with promises that ICTY
fugitive Ante Gotovina would walk freely in Croatia under his
presidency.


4. Miksic said he does not intend to tell his voters whom
they should support in the second round, but Kosor would be
the natural choice for most. We may see the HDZ court Miksic
prior to January 16 in an effort to win his endorsement.
Miksic has made a big enough splash to stir up Croatian
politics, and may be recruited by other parties as well.

KOSOR CALLS FOR DEBATE ON THE ISSUES, NOT PERSONAL JABS
-------------- --------------


5. A defeat at the hands of Miksic would have been a disaster
for Kosor and the HDZ, who can thank diaspora voters for
saving their collective skin. The low, 51 percent voter
turnout (compared to the typical 70 percent) also hurt Kosor,
and probably Mesic as well, as base voters who saw the
election as a foregone conclusion stayed home. After
breathing a deep sigh of relief when the official preliminary
results were announced at midnight, Kosor quickly launched
into round two, challenging Mesic to debate her on the
issues. This would be a welcome change from round one, when
the discourse focused on one-liners and personal insults.


6. COMMENT: Mesic was perhaps too comfortable with his
30-plus percentage point lead in pre-election polls, letting
Kosor's massive media blitz overshadow his campaign. To
assure victory, he now must energize his voters, as turnout
could be even lower in the second round. END COMMENT.
FRANK


NNNN