Aftermath of Presidential Elections: New Energy for

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000119

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM HR
SUBJECT: Aftermath of Presidential Elections: New Energy for
Opposition Parties and Renewed Calls for Electoral Reform

REF: Zagreb 78

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Summary and Comment
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1. (SBU) Croatian President Stjepan Mesic was re-elected to a
second five-year term on January 16, defeating his ruling party
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) opponent Jadranka Kosor 66 to 34
percent. Four months before local elections (scheduled for May
17, 2005),Mesic's victory could energize the opposition parties
that rallied behind him. Kosor's self-described "respectable"
finish was significantly boosted by Bosnian Croat votes at polling
stations in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Continued reports of
small-scale irregularities (reftel) are renewing calls for
election law reform, with Mesic out front pushing for an end to
diaspora voting, which would require constitutional changes. With
the HDZ now narrowly controlling the parliament, it will want to
keep the four "diaspora" seats it holds. President Mesic's
support for the idea of disenfranchising the diaspora, now that
the issue is in the eye of a sympathetic public, could force at
least some important reforms at the margins to clean up a few
legal and procedural loopholes that open the door to embarrassing
(if not widespread) irregularities. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

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Easy Win ...
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2. (U) Croatian President Stjepan Mesic easily won a second term
in the second round of presidential elections, defeating the HDZ's
Jadranka Kosor by a 2 to 1 margin. Voter turnout was 51 percent,
similar to first-round turnout. Mesic won in 19 counties and in
all but one major city; Kosor won in two counties by a narrow
margin, and attracted the vast majority of the Croatian diaspora,
a segment traditionally loyal to the HDZ. Some ten opposition
parties backed Mesic's candidacy, including the Social Democrats
(SDP),his former People's Party (HNS) and the Peasant Party
(HSS).

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... Weakens HDZ for Local Elections?
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3. (U) Although HDZ leaders portray their score as a "respectable
result," analysts agree that Mesic's victory confirmed the
declining popularity of Croatia's biggest party. Exit polls
indicated that Mesic led by 71 to 29 percent of the vote in
Croatia itself, while Kosor's figures increased only after the
votes from the diaspora, mainly in BiH, were added. In addition,
hard right voters did not swing disproportionately to Kosor in the
runoff, despite some ham-handed HDZ attempts to exploit Mesic's
sealed ICTY testimony to sway voters.


4. (U) Opposition parties now hope to exploit Mesic's victory in
the local elections scheduled in May. SDP leader Ivica Racan said
Mesic's re-election is the first victory and the local elections
will bring a second, setting up a showdown between the opposition
and the HDZ and forcing early parliamentary elections (not due
until 2007). Mesic himself said he would not necessarily be
neutral at the local elections, suggesting he might return the
favor to the opposition parties that rallied behind him.

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Reform Needed
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5. (SBU) Small-scale voting irregularities, primarily in BiH,
similar to that in the first round (reftel),are invigorating
proponents of electoral reform. After the first round, election
monitoring NGO GONG identified a number of irregularities. These
included dead people on voter lists (some even checked off as
having voted) and the addition of names to the voter list on the
spot (especially in BiH). Adding names on election day is legal,
but opens the door to double voting. A local journalist of dual
citizenship proved that this was easy to do - first casting her
vote in Karlovac, just south of Zagreb, and then crossing into BiH
and voting again in Mostar. A central register of voters would
eliminate this problem. NGO Juris Protecta estimates that the
number of names on Croatian voter lists is at least half a million
higher than the number of the actual voters. Most recently, the
GoC announced it would seek to resolve this problem before local
elections in May.


6. (U) Parliament Speaker Vladimir Seks said on January 17 that
the Local Election Law would be changed to allow only actual
residents to vote, not those who live elsewhere and only have a
registered residence in Croatia. This does not address the
diaspora vote -- as Croatian citizens abroad do not vote in local
elections -- but it could result in more accurate voter lists that


will reduce the possibility of irregularities at future elections.
While saying that diaspora citizens should be equal to any other
Croatian citizens, Prime Minister Sanader noted that the GoC would
initiate the signing of a bilateral agreement with BiH that could
regulate the voting status of dual citizens.

FRANK


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