GOC MISJUDGES PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY IN JULY 1

1. (SBU) The GoC missed a constitutionally-required two-
thirds majority in the Sabor by one vote July 1 when the
Defense Ministry's request for approval of a number of
upcoming international military exercises came to the
agenda. Lack of approval means an exercise planned for
September 2005 (Adriatic Sword) is likely to be cancelled
unless the MoD can find a way to work around the Sabor
vote. Under parliamentary rules, the issue cannot return
to the Sabor agenda for 90 days. The vote also means that
the GoC will not/not participate in the "Adriatic
Engagement" exercise with its Adriatic Charter partners
Macedonia and Albania, scheduled to start July 11.



2. (SBU) All signs pointed to approval as late as the night
before the vote, but a GoC failure to physically round up
the required number of supportive MPs, rather than any
specific organized opposition to bilateral exercises, led
to the defeat. The major opposition Social Democrats in
fact supported the measure. According to press reports,
some MOD sources put the best face on the lost vote by
calling it a strong indicator that the constitutional
provision requiring a super majority should be changed.
With the traditional summer shut-down fast approaching and
only one more week of the Sabor's session, resolution of
this unforeseen mess is unlikely to come before September.

FRANK


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