GENERAL WALD'S MARCH 30-31 VISIT TO ARMENIA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000593

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/DAS KENNEDY AND EUR/RPM
DEFENSE FOR DASD MACDOUGALL
USNATO FOR UNDERWOOD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR AM
SUBJECT: GENERAL WALD'S MARCH 30-31 VISIT TO ARMENIA


Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) In meetings with President Kocharian, MOD Sargsian
and CHOD Harutiunyan, EUCOM's General Charles Wald
acknowledged steps Armenia had taken in the past year to open
the way for a closer defense relationship with the U.S.
General Wald assured President Kocharian that peace and
stability in the Caucasus was a top priority within EUCOM.
He expressed concern over the recent increase in cease-fire
violations along the line of contact with Azerbaijan and
pressed all of his interlocutors to find political
resolution; a return to armed conflict would be devastating
for both sides and would give new advantage to neither. He
pressed Kocharian to demonstrate serious political leadership
on this issue. Kocharian blamed Azerbaijan for the
cease-fire violations and warned that an increase in
bellicose rhetoric from Azerbaijan's leadership suggested
that they were preparing their population for war. He showed
keen interest in developments in Iraq and Afghanistan and
appreciated General Wald's insights. End Summary.

General Wald's Warm Welcome in Armenia
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2. (C) On March 30-31, EUCOM Deputy Commander General
Charles Wald visited Armenia and met with President Robert
Kocharian, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsian and Chief of
General Staff (and First Deputy Minister of Defense) Mikhael
Harutiunyan. With General Wald from EUCOM were Ambassador
Lloyd Hand and Major General Scott Gration, although only a
smaller group attended the meeting with President Kocharian.
Despite other high-profile visitors to Yerevan on the same
day, General Wald's visit generated significant and generally
positive press coverage. General Wald's last visit to
Armenia was in April of 2004.

"No More Obstacles to Greater Military Cooperation"
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3. (C) In all of his meetings, General Wald acknowledged the
significant steps Armenia had taken in the past year to open
the way for a more productive defense relationship with the
U.S. and NATO. General Wald confirmed that Armenia
eliminated all of the obstacles to greater military
cooperation, including agreeing to a Defense Assessment,
signing and ratifying an Article 98 Agreement, a NATO Status
of Forces Agreement, and an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing
Agreement. Wald noted with satisfaction that Armenia now has
a contingent in Iraq and intends to create a peacekeeping
brigade and has offered to host the EUCOM disaster-response
exercise, Rescuer, in 2006. The progress in the relationship
has been dramatic, Wald said, and the U.S. has taken notice.

Afghanistan
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4. (C) President Kocharian asked about the situation in
Afghanistan and Iraq. Kocharian remarked that he had heard
from his Central Asian colleagues that the production of
drugs in Afghanistan had sharply increased and he recalled
that about half of the Soviet soldiers returning from
Afghanistan suffered from drug addictions. General Wald
confirmed that drug production had increased in Afghanistan,
but that the problem would be addressed, adding that NATO and
UK military forces had joined forces to combat the drug
problem. Wald also addressed the growing HIV/AIDS problem in
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus and the toll that this pandemic
may take on these societies.

Iraq and the Middle East
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5. (C) On the subject of Iraq, General Wald said he sees
the glass as half-full rather than half-empty. Stability has
been elusive, but progress is being registered. Wald
recalled the original reasons for the conflict, noting that
Saddam had flouted 17 U.N. resolutions. The day of the Iraqi
elections, which turned out even better than expected, was a
great one for Iraq. Although the insurgency was still
strong, al-Zarqawi would eventually be caught, and the supply
of suicide bombers is not infinite. General Wald thanked
Armenia for its contribution to the coalition in Iraq and
expressed the hope that the Armenia would continue to provide
such support.


6. (C) President Kocharian noted that Iraq belongs to a
different culture and would not be easily integrated into
Europe or the West. General Wald noted that the Iraqis are
educated and capable and the idea of self-governance is
catching on. Kocharian added that a settlement of the
Israeli - Palestinian issue would make a huge difference in
the region and noted that there are large Armenian
communities in Lebanon and Jerusalem. General Wald agreed
that the Israeli - Palestinian conflict was a central issue
for the region and added that both sides must take the right
steps so as to reach the point where they can implement the
Roadmap.

Nagorno-Karabakh -- Too Much Saber-Rattling from Baku
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7. (C) Prompted by DefMin Sargsian, President Kocharian
noted that the South Caucasus had its own unresolved
conflict: Nagorno-Karabakh. Kocharian claimed that the war
rhetoric coming from Baku had reached a point where the
Armenian side felt there was a real possibility of war. For
this reason, he had asked his Foreign Minister to write a
letter to the Minsk Group, and to the Minsk Group co-chairs,
putting forward the suggestion that something be done to make
the Line of Contact more secure. Kocharian said that there
had been a tendency not to publicize violations of the
cease-fire, so as not to damage the reputation of the South
Caucasus, especially with the European Union; however, it was
now necessary to make the violations public. Having a
"watchdog" mechanism in place could help.


8. (S) Kocharian said Armenia thought Azerbaijani President
Aliyev was preparing his society for the possibility of
military action. Armenia did not want war because it could
disrupt positive economic development in the country.
However, if there ever were a need to mobilize the
population, it would be necessary to crank up the military
preparedness rhetoric with the Armenian public. Kocharian
noted that both he and DefMin Sargsian were from Karabakh,
had fought there, and knew what war meant. General Wald said
that all of the conflicts, from Nagorno-Karabakh to
Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia to Kashmir and
Israel/Palestine needed to be settled by peaceful means. He
had read FM Oskanian's letter to Secretary Rice and did not
doubt that the letter would receive the attention it deserved
in Washington. He thought that avoiding public acrimony was
important, and if it were true that the Azerbaijanis were
violating the cease-fire agreement, that this was a problem.
Wald added that great leaders must be prepared to deal with
great problems. He thought that perhaps the Russians and
Americans might find a way to help stabilize the situation,
but added the caveat that this was a matter primarily for
Secretary Rice and Ambassador Mann.

SIPDIS


9. (S) General Wald assured President Kocharian that peace
and stability in the Caucasus was a top priority within
EUCOM. He asked Kocharian to do what he could to resolve the
situation and do demonstrate serious leadership. For his
part Wald resolved to tell President Aliyev in Baku that it
would be a terrible mistake to initiate hostilities.
Kocharian said that he was raising the issue not because
Armenia was afraid, but because he saw a changing pattern
that put Armenia at a big disadvantage. He added that while
he and DefMin Sargsian had been fighting in Karabakh, "young
Aliyev had been spending most of his time in Moscow casinos."


10. (S) General Wald responded that no one doubted the will
or the ability of the Armenians to fight and guessed that
there might be some possibility that President Aliyev did not
fully understand what a disaster a renewed war would bring.
He noted that war gamers at EUCOM had studied the potential
consequences of renewed fighting, and concluded that there
would be huge losses for both sides, but that the both sides
would wind up about where they presently were, i.e., the
conflict would be devastating but inconclusive.

Meeting with DefMin Sargsian
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11. (C) In a separate meeting with DefMin Sargsian, General
Wald noted the series of important steps Armenia has taken in
order to strengthen the relationship and thanked Sargsian for
Armenia's contribution to the coalition in Iraq. Sargsian
said that Armenia has nearly completed its IPAP Presentation
Document, which would be ready by the end of April. The only
challenge he saw in the relationship was implementing the
plan to expand Armenia's peacekeeping unit to a brigade using
Foreign Military Financing (FMF) funds. Sargsian expressed
frustration that this program was moving slowly forward.
General Wald explained that the U.S. bureaucracy can be tough
to negotiate, but promised to help expedite Armenia's request
for assistance.


12. (C) On the subject of Nagorno-Karabakh, Sargsian said
the threats from Baku were becoming "dramatic" and criticized
President Aliyev's comments that Azerbaijan would never
compromise over Nagorno-Karabakh. He noted an increase in
tension along the front lines. Sargsian said that Armenia
had no interest in restarting the conflict, blaming the
recent cease-fire violations on Azerbaijan. He offered that
Azerbaijan is attempting to blackmail Armenia and the Minsk
Group by threatening war if the peace talks don't bring a
settlement favorable to Azerbaijan. Despite these concerns,
General Wald predicted that in ten years Armenia and
Azerbaijan would be fighting against terrorism together,
noting that the new threat environment requires new
methodologies and new alliances.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Both Kocharian and Sargsian were pleased by General
Wald's recognition of Armenia's steps to improve relations
with the U.S. Armenia is clearly concerned about the recent
increase of tension along the Line of Contact and the
Azerbaijani initiative has taken outside of the OSCE Minsk
Group.


14. (U) General Wald did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.
EVANS