Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05YEREVAN553
2005-03-29 12:22:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

LETTER TO SECRETARY RICE FROM ARMENIAN FM OSKANIAN

Tags:  AJ AM PARM PBTS PREL 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000553 

SIPDIS

TBILISI PLEASE PASS GENERAL WALD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AJ AM PARM PBTS PREL
SUBJECT: LETTER TO SECRETARY RICE FROM ARMENIAN FM OSKANIAN


Sensitive But Unclassified; Protect Accordingly

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000553

SIPDIS

TBILISI PLEASE PASS GENERAL WALD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AJ AM PARM PBTS PREL
SUBJECT: LETTER TO SECRETARY RICE FROM ARMENIAN FM OSKANIAN


Sensitive But Unclassified; Protect Accordingly


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On the margins of hearings today in the
Armenian National Assembly on Nagorno-Karabagh (SEPTEL),
Foreign Minister Oskanian passed the following letter to
embassy representatives of Minsk Group co-Chairs, addressed
to Ministers. The letter raises concerns about the
possibility of the issue of settlements in the occupied
territories being reintroduced at the U.N., the recent
clashes on the Line of Contact, and the perceived danger of a
renewed conflict.


2. (SBU) BEGIN TEXT:

28 March, 2005

Dear Secretary Rice,

There are two matters that I would call to your attention, in
your capacity as Minsk Group Co-Chair.

First, on the OSCE Minsk Group Fact-Finding Mission to the
Territories Surrounding Nagorno Karabakh. The Mission has
officially presented its report to the OSCE Permanent
Council. We are thankful to you for the work your
representatives did in making the Mission productive,
effective, objective, and in many ways, conclusive.

Armenia believes that the most important accomplishment of
the Fact Finding Mission Report is that it can put to rest
Azerbaijan,s concerns. The Fact Finding Mission was created
and launched because Azerbaijan claimed, through a resolution
they wished to present at the UN, that there was intentional,
massive, coordinated settlement policy that would harm the
negotiation process. Armenia agreed to facilitate a
fact-finding mission and Azerbaijan agreed in return not to
take any action on its UN resolution and suspend the
initiative.

The OSCE Fact Finding Mission found neither settlement
policies by Armenia nor any serious settlements. Those
random settlers who were found in the territories surrounding
Nagorno Karabakh are refugees from regions of Azerbaijan, and
they clearly indicated their desire to return to their homes
upon the settlement of the conflict. We believe Azerbaijan
should be pleased with the results, since they stipulate that
there is no manipulation of the situation on the ground, and
that indeed, all decisions can be made at the negotiating
table.

However, Azerbaijan,s individual and institutional
statements misquote and misstate4 the report, its

observations and conclusions. Instead, Azerbaijan appears
intent on creating a new situation, simply by repeating its
allegations, now thoroughly disproven.

Further, they continue to speak of raising this issue at the
UN, in spite of an agreement that they would let this die,
once a fact-finding mission takes place. Therefore, if
Azerbaijan were to breach this agreement, it would lead to a
total loss of trust by Armenians in Azerbaijan as a serious
partner in peace.

I wanted to call your attention to this potentially erosive
situation. Secondly, please allow me to highlight the
unusually high number of clashes which have taken place
recently on the Line of Contact between Azerbaijani and
Nagorno Karabakh forces, as well as on the
Armenian-Azerbaijan border. This is cause for alarm.

The Line of Contact, as the cease-fire itself, is
self-monitored, and has been so, since 1994. Incidents on
the Line of Contact have been infrequent over the years. We
have frequently asked that a mechanism be created to
reinforce and protect the established lines which are the
most conducive to maintaining the peace.

During this last month however, the intensity and frequency
of clashes have increased noticeably. The Azerbaijani press,
as a rule, blames Armenians for these violations. First, let
me categorically state the obvious: Armenia does not want
the cease-fire to be violated, and has no interest in
initiating any irregular or unusual activit6y on the Line of
Contact or at the border. Each of these violations has been
of Azerbaijani instigation. In fact, in many places, not
only have they fired on Armenian positions, but they have
also registered forward movement of their positions. Of
course, as the two sides come in closer proximity, then
further clashes become more probable.

This is of course of grave concern. It is not the main
danger, however. These Azerbaijani actions are combined with
increased war-mongering, heightened rhetoric and militaristic
statements at the highest levels. Thus the possibility, and
even the inevitability of war, becomes a commonplace.
Indeed, both the Azerbaijani President and Defense Minister
have clearly said, more than once, that war can start at any
time. These statements, combined with past and present
Azerbaijani actions, give us serious reason to worry that
Azerbaijan will in fact take steps to start a new war.
We believe that the fundamental reason for the recurrence of
these abuses is that Azerbaijan is assured of impunity. They
know that even when such encroachments are obvious and
visible, and Azerbaijan has clearly violated the ceasefire
and advanced, no one will criticize or condemn their actions.
As a result, they can and do breach the ceasefire again and
again.

It is essential that the co-chair countries use their
resources to confirm today,s positions, by the use of
satellite photos, or any other appropriate technology. Such
a record, shared by the co-chairs and the sides, can be used
as a point of irrefutable reference, and can lead to public
condemnation of each violation. We are convinced that this
would serve as serious deterrence for either side
contemplating provocation, or actually advancing forward, or
blaming and accusing the other side.

I cannot overstate the seriousness of our concern. Our
partners on the other side are, unfortunately, not just new
to the negotiating table, but also new to war. They did not
live through the bloody battles of the early 1990s and may be
under the very false impression that they can resolve this
issue militarily. If that were true, this conflict would
have been already resolved, since there was indeed a war and
there was a victor. Our two peoples should not have to pay
the price of finding that out again.

If Azerbaijan persists in its miscalculated provocations,
they can indeed restart the war. We urge you to join us in
taking steps to prevent this.

Therefore, Excellency, I urgently request that you take note
of this serious risk. We would request that the matter of
creating a mechanism to monitor the cease-fire be created.
We would advocate that the co-chairs place this matter on the
agenda of the two presidents at their next meeting. Further
military uncertainties and instability is not what this
region needs.

Allow me to thank you once again for the valuable work of the
OSCE co-chair countries and to express our hope that despite
these two alarming phenomena, a way will be found to continue
negotiations within the OSCE Minsk group framework, and reach
a lasting peace.

Sincerely,

/s/

Vartan Oskanian

END TEXT


3. (U) Hearings are continuing as we approach CoB local time
and will resume tomorrow.
EVANS