DESPITE IRAN PIPELINE HEADLINES, ARMENIA-GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000476

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, NEA/ARPI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2025
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG IR AM
SUBJECT: DESPITE IRAN PIPELINE HEADLINES, ARMENIA-GEORGIA
PM MEETINGS MOSTLY PHOTO OPS, COOPERATION TALK

REF: TBILISI 605

Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Despite headlines suggesting that the March 11-12
visit of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli focused on
energy issues including the announced Iran-Armenia gas
pipeline project, sources tell us that this was only casually
mentioned during one of the sessions and that the quick
series of meetings was mostly protocolary in nature. The one
deliverable to come out of the meetings was a formal
commitment by the two Prime Ministers to revive the mostly
defunct Georgia-Armenia Inter-Governmental Commission. Our
sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of
Finance and Economy told us that meetings were quick and
suggested that the offhand nature of the visit resulted from
an effort to facilitate the meetings so that not too much
time would pass between Noghaideli's meetings in Azerbaijan
and his trip to Yerevan. Armenian Prime Minister Andranik
Markarian, who hosted the visit, featured more prominently
than usual in the public events. The Nogadieli visit may
have done more to help Markarian's image here in Yerevan than
it did to advance Georgia-Armenia relations. End Summary.


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CASUAL, "UNPROFESSIONAL" MENTION OF PIPELINE
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2. (C) Press coverage of the March 11-12 visit of Georgian
Prime Minster Zurab Noghaideli suggested that the meetings
revolved around the issue of the announced Iran-Armenia gas
pipeline. Our sources tell us, however, that the issue was
only casually mentioned during one of the sessions.
Discussion of the pipeline (including a suggestion that it
eventually extend into Georgia) was initiated by the Georgian
side and, according to the Deputy Minister of Energy, was
viewed by the GOAM as a mostly "unprofessional" overture. He
told us that they raised the subject without a solid analysis
of the data and without any investigation about the
feasibility on the Georgian side.


3. (C) Beyond what was discussed between the two Prime
Ministers, Isayan explained that the Georgians appear
concerned about dependence on Russia for energy and that they
have made clear in the past that an alternative source of gas
to Armenia would, in their opinion, remove a major
disincentive for Russia to cut gas deliveries to the line
that serves both Georgia and Armenia. He said that the GOAM
will float the possibility of an extension with the Russian
government during Putin's visit to Armenia scheduled for the
end of March (Note: the GOAM and the GOR had reportedly
agreed that Armenia would limit the pipeline to a diameter
that precluded the possibility of onward sales of gas. In
order to extend the pipeline to Georgia, this agreement would
have to be modified. End Note.)

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PRIME MINISTERS REVIVE GEORGIA-ARMENIA COMMISSION
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4. (C) The one deliverable to come out of the meetings was a
formal commitment by the two Prime Ministers to revive the
mostly defunct Georgia-Armenia Inter-Governmental Commission
(a forum for discussion of bi-lateral assistance and
cooperation). Advisor to the Minister of Finance and Economy
Mher Hayryan told us that there was pressure on both the
Ministry of Finance and Economy and Prime Minister's Office
to take advantage of the new Georgian counterpart's arrival
to reinvigorate the institution. President Robert Kocharian
had reportedly gotten word from Armenian groups abroad of a
perception that the two governments were not cooperating on
technical issues and that Georgia-Armenia relations had not
moved past pleasantries at the presidential level following
events in Georgia in 2004. The Prime Ministers announced
that the next session of the Commission would take place in

2005.

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KEEPING UP APPEARANCES
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5. (C) Our sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told us
that the meetings were quick, mostly protocolary and even
suggested that the almost unannounced nature of the meeting
(as suggested by some of the more reactionary local press)
was part of the perennial local effort to maintain
appearances vis-a-vis Azerbaijan. Noghaideli's last-minute
travel to Azerbaijan March 4-6 (reftel) had reportedly raised
concerns that too much time would pass before he came to
Yerevan and therefore leave the impression that Georgia
valued its relations with Azerbaijan more than its relation
with Armenia. The Armenians found a mutually acceptable
window for Noghaideli's visit and put the itinerary together
"over the course of a few days."
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COMMENT: MARKARIAN ACTUALLY THE WINNER?
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6. (C) Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, who hosted
the visit, featured more prominently than usual in the public
events and even received a lukewarm vote of confidence from
President Robert Kocharian in the ensuing press coverage.
Following February's press rumors that the President
Kocharian and Prime Minister were on the outs, the Noghaideli
visit may have done more to help enhance Markarian's image
here in Yerevan than it did to advance Georgia-Armenia
relations.
EVANS