TOUCHING BASE ON A TOUGH 2005 FOR ARMENIA-TURKEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002209

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU RS AM
SUBJECT: TOUCHING BASE ON A TOUGH 2005 FOR ARMENIA-TURKEY

REF: YEREVAN 1494

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) MFA Middle East Department Chief Artem Aznaurian and
MFA Turkey Desk Officer Sahak Sargsyan told us December 22
that 2005 had not produced much progress in the
Armenia-Turkey rapprochement process, but said the GOAM would
continue to engage in working-level meetings with Turkish
diplomats during the upcoming year. Aznaurian was anxious to
report that Russian diplomat Andrey Kelin, Head of the CIS
Department at the Russian MFA, had consulted with the GOAM
recently on issues related to Turkey and even traveled to
Turkey to discuss the Armenia-Turkey relationship. On
prospects of opening the Armenia-Turkey border, Aznaurian
said the GoT was "saving face" by listing settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a pre-condition but reiterated
the MFA's pessimistic line about prospects for a border
opening (in the near-term) absent a breakthrough on N-K. He
characterized the relationship as "still caught in the
exchange of letters between Kocharian and Erdogan," which did
not produce satisfactory movement for either side. Comment:
Despite a fresh line-up of diplomats working the Turkey
portfolio, the last set of disappointing meetings between
Deputy FM Kirakossian are still hanging heavily over the
GOAM. The news that there is no meeting on the calendar
between GOAM and GOT Deputy Foreign Ministers is disquieting
and we should encourage the two sides not to let this
particular channel of communication go silent. End Summary.

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2005: NOT A BANNER YEAR FOR ARMENIA-TURKEY
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2. (C) MFA Middle East Department Chief Artem Aznaurian and
MFA Turkey Desk Officer Sahak Sargsyan told us during a
December 22 meeting that 2005 had not produced much progress
in the Armenia-Turkey rapprochement process. Aznaurian, who
is not prone to gratuitous cheerleading when it comes to
Turkish-Armenian relations, was more pessimistic than usual
about what, if anything, had been accomplished between the
two sides over the past year. Aznaurian said the status of
the relationship was "still caught up in the exchange of
letters between Kocharian and Erdogan." He said that the
GOAM had hoped more tangible progress would come out of the
exchange of letters, which "did not prove satisfactory for
either side." When asked about the status of the somewhat
regular meetings between Deputy Foreign Ministers in Vienna,
Aznaurian said the latest meetings had not produced anything
new in terms of an action plan or confidence building
measures (reftel). He said that the GOAM would continue with
this format but said there was not a date on the calendar for
the next meeting. As during previous meetings, Aznaurian was
quick to point to Armenia's representation at the Black Sea
Economic Conference (BSEC) in Istanbul as the GOAM's main
source for information and policy issues related to Turkey.

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TATTLING OR TOUTING RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT?
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3. (C) Aznaurian pointed to continued engagement by countries
like the United States as key to the Armenia-Turkey
rapprochement process. He appeared anxious, however, to
point to recent conversations with the Russians on the issue
as indication of their growing interest on the issue. He
said that the two sides discussed prospects for establishing
relations with Turkey during their recent bilateral
government consultations. According to Aznaurian, Russian
diplomat Andrey Kelin (Head of the CIS Department at the
Russian MFA) expressed interest in the issue during his
latest meeting with the Armenians and even traveled to Turkey
to discuss the Armenia-Turkey relationship. Aznaurian noted
that it was outside of Kelin's portfolio to travel to Ankara
and asked what the USG thought of what might be growing
engagement by the Russians on the topic.

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BORDER: STILL TIED TO N-K
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4. (C) Aznaurian reported that immediate prospects for
opening the Armenia-Turkey border were still slim. He said
the issue was undoubtedly linked to settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but raised doubts about the extent
of the GoT's conviction on this point. Aznaurian predicted
that the GoT was merely "saving face" by listing settlement
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a pre-condition for
opening the border. He said that N-K was always among the
Turks' top three pre-conditions but said that they regularly
alternate its place on the list "perhaps as a pretext, but
probably just to save face" with the Azeris.

COMMENT
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5. (C) Despite a fresh line-up of diplomats working the
Turkey portfolio, memories from the last set of disappointing
meetings between Deputy FM Kirakossian and Turkish Deputy
Undersecretary Ahmet Uzumcu are still hanging heavily over
the GOAM. The news that there is no meeting on the calendar
between GOAM and GOT Deputy Foreign Ministers is disquieting
and we should encourage the two sides not to let this
particular channel of communication go silent.
GODFREY