GOVERNING COALITION BEGINS DISCUSSING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002200

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SUBJECT: GOVERNING COALITION BEGINS DISCUSSING
REFERENDUM SHORTCOMINGS

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Following their stoic congratulatory remarks
immediately after the vote, pro-government officials
are starting to talk publicly about fraud during the
November 27 constitutional referendum. National
Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasarian launched a wave of
discussion with allegations of fraud and claims that he
possessed a packet of "proof" of vote-rigging. His
governing coalition colleagues, after blasting him for
moving ahead of the pack, have made watered-down
admissions that there may have been problems during the
referendum. Prime Minister Andranik Markarian even
entered the fray on December 17 acknowledging that
ballot stuffing occurred. While political leaders
began to indicate that the November 27 referendum may
have been less than free and fair, Armenia's Prosecutor
General came out on December 20 with statements
dismissing reports of violations and the legal standing
of such claims. End Summary.

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BAGHDASARIAN: FIRST TO COMMENT
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2. (SBU) National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasarian
surprised his governing coalition colleagues and the
media with his December 1 statement acknowledging
serious instances of ballot box stuffing during the
November 27 constitutional referendum. In a series of
newspaper and television interviews, Baghdasarian
insisted that it was "obvious" that there was organized
ballot stuffing during the referendum. He blamed
unspecified individuals close to the election process
with a "criminal mentality" that stops at nothing to
"please the bosses." (Note: Minister of Defense Serzh
Sargsian responded to press questions December 2 about
the referendum results with the comment, "I believe
that the referendum passed. I believe that more than
one third [of the voters] said 'yes.' I believe that
this is the clear will of our people." End Note.)

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COALITION PARTNERS BLAST BAGHDASARIAN
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3. (SBU) Counterparts from the Republican and Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF/Dashnak) parties blasted
Baghdasarian for his public criticism but also stopped
short of calling the elections free and fair. Their
criticisms were more about Baghdasarian's methods and
motives than about the substance of his accusations.
Baghdasarian's coalition partners, the Republican Party
and the ARF Party, were clearly unhappy with
Baghdasarian's statements. Senior ARF MP Levon
Mkrtchyan criticized Baghdasarian in the press, saying
that his Orinats Yerkir Party should have shared its
concerns with its government allies before going public
with the information. He accused Baghdasarian of
lending more weight to opposition allegations that the
vote was blatantly rigged. Galust Sahakyan, senior
Republican Party MP, followed the ARF's lead and
criticized Baghdasarian's move in the press. Comment:
While conspiratorial media outlets were quick to point
to this public exchange as an indication that the
coalition was (again) about to crumble, there does not
appear to have been an immediate split as a result of
the scuffle. End Comment.

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THE "PACKET OF PROOF" OF VIOLATIONS
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4. (SBU) Baghdasarian's top lieutenant, MP Mher
Shahgeldyan, told the Ambassador December 9 that
Baghdasarian planned to file a complaint with Armenia's
Prosecutor General, and confirmed in a conversation on
December 19 that Baghdasarian had sent an "information
package" to the Prosecutor General including proof of
electoral fraud. While he would not elaborate on the
nature of the information, he indicated that it was a
thick packet of documents including evidence that
authorities had tampered with the vote. Baghdasarian
later told the media that he had received "facts" about
widespread vote-rigging and was passing the data to
relevant law enforcement authorities. While the extent
of Baghdasarian's "proof" and the depth of his
commitment to spearhead the post-referendum
investigation are still unclear, his comments were the
first by a pro-government politician admitting to
problems during the November 27 referendum.

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PM ADMITS TO, DOWNPLAYS BALLOT STUFFING
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5. (SBU) Prime Minister and Republican Party leader
Andranik Markarian broke his silence about the
constitutional referendum, admitting during a December
16 speech (during the party's annual conference) that
ballot stuffing had occurred during the referendum.
The PM noted that the members of the election
commissions, in which all three coalition parties were
represented, should have registered instances of vote
rigging, which they did not. According to Markarian,
it would be impossible to present claims of ballot
stuffing to the Prosecutor General or the
Constitutional Court. Republican Party number two and
Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly Tigran Torosyan
also told us that there were electoral violations, but
insisted that a rumored number of "stuffed" ballots
(more than 750,000 according to opposition claims) was
exaggerated. According to Torosyan's calculations, the
fraud had no real impact on referendum outcome.

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DASHNAKS CALL VOTE BIG NEWS OF 2005, DESPITE FRAUD
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6. (SBU) Deputy Speaker of the parliament and ARF
leader Vahan Hovhannisyan also recently went public
about the Constitutional referendum. In a December 20
press conference, Hovhannisyan admitted that there were
instances of electoral violations on November 27.
According to Hovhannisyan, the positive outcome of the
referendum offset any damage that electoral violations
may have caused. Hovhannisyan called the referendum
the "most important achievement of the government and
the people in 2005." Hovhannisyan told us he welcomed
the opportunities offered by the new constitution, but
admitted that the electoral process could and should
have gone much better.

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HOVSEPYAN DISMISSES CLAIMS AND SPEAKER'S "PROOF"
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7. (SBU) Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepyan said on
December 20 that Armenian law-enforcement bodies lack
the concrete facts necessary under Armenian law to
prosecute anyone in connection with electoral fraud on
November 27. According to Hovsepyan no individual or
GOAM office had presented his office sufficiently
detailed information on violations which would trigger
a criminal investigation. Hovsepyan informed the press
that he had received a letter from Armenian National
Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasarian on December 19
regarding electoral violations. According to
Hovsepyan, however, Baghdasarian's letter contained no
specific facts regarding violations, but only included
media reports.

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COMMENT
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8. (SBU) Emerging statements about problems during the
November 27 referendum by governing coalition leaders
and the Prosecutor General indicate that official
Yerevan is only beginning to discuss this question.
There does not appear to be a synchronized approach to
the issue by coalition parties (as evidenced by the
clumsy reaction of the ARF and Republicans to
Baghdasarian's early accusations of fraud). We expect
that the GOAM will talk more about what may or may not
have happened on November 27 and the road ahead as the
political elites begin to form their pre-election
strategies in advance of the 2007 parliamentary
elections.
GODFREY