ARMENIAN OPPOSITION: RUNNING IN DIFFERENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002174

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DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

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TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN OPPOSITION: RUNNING IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS

REF: YEREVAN 2105

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Disagreements among Armenia's three main opposition
parties have become more evident in the aftermath of the
November 27 constitutional referendum and subsequent
opposition rallies. Radical Republic Party Chairman Aram
Sargsian insists that opposition leaders band together to
establish a new "anti-government committee" with regional
branches to unite Armenians against Kocharian in a
post-referendum standoff. Armenia's People Party Chairman
Stepan Demirchian rejected Sargsian's call and, on December
14, announced that opposition leaders should rally supporters
only after devising a clear -- and thus far elusive -- set of
next steps. Artashes Geghamian, the leader of the opposition
National Unity Party, has chosen to steer clear of recent
lackluster rallies altogether. End Summary.

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RALLYING, BUT NOT REALLY COMING TOGETHER
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2. (SBU) While protesters continue to rally in Yerevan's
streets against the results of the November 27 constitutional
referendum, the opposition appears as fractured as ever --
mostly along party and personality lines. Opposition leaders
have resorted to their usual tactics of public disagreement
by proxy (via press releases and open letters) as they
attempt to devise a still-unclear campaign against the
Kocharian administration. Opposition rallies have captured
headlines, but have attracted dwindling numbers of lukewarm
supporters (no more than 500 at the December 9 rally) who are
mostly adverse to the cold weather. Some opposition leaders,
including Raffi Hovannissian, are predicting that the
opposition rally scheduled for December 16 will be the last
until after the local holiday season ends in mid-January).
Local press reported rumors that during the December 9
opposition rally, key opposition figures Stepan Demirchian
and Aram Sargsian refused to speak to each other even though
they shared the podium; Demirchian did not speak to the crowd
and arrived well into the rally, while Sargsian clearly held
the "key-note" position among the speakers).

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OPPOSITION "UMBRELLA" IDEA ALREADY LEAKING
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3. (SBU) A number of opposition parties (with some notable
exceptions),led by the Republic Party's Aram Sargsian, have
proposed a "United Opposition" format that would combine
smaller opposition parties under a loose umbrella structure.
Sargsian and others have suggested that the structure would
include an "anti-government committee" with regional branches
throughout Armenia. Opposition newspapers compared the
committee with the "Karabakh" Committee that was influential
in rallying Armenians during the independence movement and
N-K war in the late 1980s. Vazgen Manukian, the head of the
National Democratic Union Party and former leader of the
Karabakh committee did not deny the rumor that a new alliance
between Sargsian's Republic, Hovhannisian's Heritage Party
and his party might be formed. This move would lead to the
formation of the most radical wing of Armenia's opposition.


4. (SBU) While smaller opposition parties are listed as
supporters of this new structure, major factions of the
opposition have come out against the proposal. Armenia's
People Party Chairman Stepan Demirchian made public
statements on December 14 calling the formation of a new
committee "hasty" and refusing to link his People's Party
with the initiative. Demirchian announced December 15 that
the opposition should rally supporters in the streets (the
preferred tactic of some of his opposition colleagues) only
after devising a clear set of next steps. He has told his
supporters to stay away from opposition rallies indefinitely.
The Armenian National Movement of former President
Ter-Petrosyan has also not joined Sargsian's party.

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GEGHAMIAN: "THIRD WAY" OR "THIRD WHEEL?"
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5. (SBU) Artashes Geghamian, chairman of the National Unity
Party, has steered clear of this latest tranche of alliances
and splits within the opposition. He announced on December
14 his party's decision to avoid post-referendum protests.
In an interview with RFE/RL, he said that public rallies were
"not timely." While this message is similar to Demirchian's,
Geghamian has been careful to distance himself from
Demirchian and the People's Party. (Note: Geghamian's party
ended its boycott of parliament earlier this year in a very
public split with Demirchian's Justice Bloc. End Note.)
Geghamian is anxious to portray his party as an "alternative"
to the other opposition groups but also admits openly that
there have been disagreements between him and opposition
leaders that made his full participation in pan-opposition
structures problematic.

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COMMENT: MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES STILL NOT UNIFIED
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6. (SBU) Turf wars among Armenian opposition parties are not
new. This latest round of jockeying comes at a unique
moment, however, with the aftermath of the controversial
November 27 referendum still playing out. The fact that the
three largest groups within the opposition (Demirchian's,
Sargsian's and Geghamian's camps) cannot agree on how to
react to the referendum may point to a larger-than-usual
fissure, with significant impact on their ability to mobilize
resources and people, as lackluster attendance at recent
rallies may suggest.
EVANS