USG NEXT STEPS FOLLOWING A "MARRED" CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 002083

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: USG NEXT STEPS FOLLOWING A "MARRED" CONSTITUTIONAL
REFERENDUM

REF: A) YEREVAN 2074 B) YEREVAN 2062

Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

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DISAPPOINTED BUT NOT WILLING TO THROW IN THE TOWEL
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1. (C) Despite what Council of Europe (CoE) observers are
calling a "marred" referendum and considerable NGO and
opposition concern about alleged voting irregularities (ref
A),we expect that the CoE will simply move forward and
quietly embrace the new constitution that it helped draft.
World Bank Resident Representative Roger Robinson told us
November 29 that "sometimes you get something good out of bad
events;" we expect that the rest of the international
community will feel the same, and in fact, the Czech who led
the CoE observer team made a similar comment.

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MAKING LEMONADE--OUR STEPS AHEAD
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2. (C) While we called publicly for a referendum that met
international standards and have now joined calls for
investigation of the allegations of fraud, the continued
voting abuses only highlight the serious need for our
proposed Democracy Promotion Strategy (ref B). Specifically,
we expect that our assistance, targeted at the upcoming
2007/2008 electoral cycle has a better-than-even chance of
improving the voters' lists, creating a better election
administration, improving electoral adjudication and the
judiciary, encouraging voter participation and enhancing
voter information, developing reliable, objective public
opinion polling, developing stronger political parties,
continuing the fight against corruption, building a larger
role for an independent media, and enhancing monitoring and
involving the international community. President Kocharian
endorsed our package of measures in September, when we
previewed it with him, and he is now in his second (and last)
term of office. This may provide a better context for making
progress than would be the case if he were seeking
re-election. But because Kocharian is no democrat at heart,
we also believe that our program of pro-democracy
interventions will need to be complemented by diplomatic and
public diplomacy pressure at every step of the way.

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POSSIBLE PITFALLS
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3. (C) If the GOAM can keep from overreacting as the
opposition mounts (what have been to date only lackadaisical)
protests, then we have the possibility to work with them and
to move forward. While preliminary indications are not
uniformly positive (opposition groups report a number of
detentions, although no formal arrests, in conjunction with
this week's protests),we do not expect the GOAM to
deliberately add fuel to the opposition's barely smoldering
fire. We believe that our only option, after expressing our
disappointment, is to continue working to move Armenia closer
to the democratic, western-looking camp.
EVANS