ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM: INFLATED TURNOUT, OBSERVERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 002074

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (BRYZA),PLEASE PASS USAID
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM: INFLATED TURNOUT, OBSERVERS
CRITICAL


Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

Summary and Comment
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1. (C) Official results for voter turnout contrast sharply
with those reported by opposition and some independent local
observers for Armenia's November 27 referendum on
constitutional amendments. The 14-member group of observers
from the Council of Europe -- the only international
observers accredited for this referendum -- also noted the
discrepancy between reported results and apparent lack of
turnout and, in a press statement issued on November 28,
declared that "the abuses that marred the referendum were
against the intent and interest of the Armenian people."
(Full text at para 11.) Armenia's Central Election
Commission (CEC) reported voter turnout at 64.4 percent, far
above the minimum participation required for the results to
be considered valid. Preliminary CEC reports showed more
than 93 percent of those who cast ballots voted "yes."
Opposition groups claimed that turnout was less than 17
percent and are calling for citizens to protest in Yerevan on
the afternoon of November 28. Informally, Council of Europe
observers expressed their belief that the fraud was
unnecessary; there would probably have been enough "yes"
votes to win the day. In general, conduct of the ballot was
mostly without incident, but there were reports of
intimidation of opposition observers.


2. (C) The opposition has sought all along to use this
ballot as a referendum on the legitimacy of the Kocharian
government. Opposition leaders are calling for rally in
Yerevan to protest the results. Aram Sargsian, leader of the
radical opposition "Republic" party, has gone much further,
calling for revolution. Because the opposition remains so
fractured, the November 28 protest will almost certainly not
pose a threat to the Kocharian government. But should the
government overreact to the protest, as it did in 2004, it
could unify the opposition and create the very problem it
seeks to avoid. Given that there was no large-scale OSCE
observer mission, the facts are difficult to determine. If
pressed, we suggest using points similar to those at para 12.
End Summary.

Referendum Gets Full Government Campaign
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3. (C) Armenia conducted a national referendum on November

27. The only issue on the ballot was the approval of
amendments to the Constitution. While far from perfect, the
amendments would bring about greater separation of powers and
provide for a more independent judiciary. The final draft of
these amendments won the qualified approval of the Council of
Europe's Venice Commission. After a slow start, the GOAM
pulled out all the stops to promote a "yes" vote.

Few International Observers
--------------


4. Despite repeated approaches, the GOAM refused to invite
any international observers other than those from the Council
of Europe. The only group of international observers
accredited was a 14-member delegation made up of members of
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)
and the CoE's Congress of Local and Regional Authorities.
Delegation members arrived in Armenia no earlier than
November 24 and met with GOAM leaders and with members of the
opposition and civil society. (Note: The Embassy also
provided significant support to the delegation. End note.)

Inflated Urban Voter Turnout
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5. (C) Throughout the day on November 27, credible reports
of inflated voter turnout, particularly in Yerevan, called
into serious question the vote tallies being reported by the
Central Election Commission. Anecdotal reports of turnout in
rural polling stations described precincts crowded with
villagers and a holiday atmosphere reminiscent of the best
Soviet traditions. When observers visited polling stations
in Yerevan, they saw few voters but full ballot boxes.


6. (C) Voting day rallies were poorly attended. Both the
"yes" campaign and the opposition called for supporters to
turn out to competing venues in downtown Yerevan, but just as
with the referendum itself, turnout was meager. At its peak,
Embassy security officers estimated turnout at the opposition
rally at 600 - 700.

Fractured Opposition Calls for Revolution
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7. (C) In a clear signal of its fractured nature, the
opposition held several press conferences during the evening
of November 27, disparaging the conduct of the referendum and
calling for supporters to rally in Yerevan on the afternoon
of November 28. Aram Sargsian, president of the radical
opposition Republic party went furthest, declaring that "the
revolution begins with a phone call, the revolution begins
tomorrow." Sargsian dared the mostly government-aligned
television stations covering the press conference to air his
call to action.

Council of Europe Criticism ...
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8. (U) The CoE observers held a press conference the
afternoon of November 28 and released a statement which
criticized strongly both the government's decision not to
invite other international observers and the opposition's
decision to withdraw from electoral commissions. The CoE
statement declared that "the Referendum generally reflected
the free will of those who voted. However, on voting day the
observers witnessed serious abuse in several polling stations
which cast a shadow over the credibility of the officially
announced turn-out."

... But Not a Unanimous Condemnation of the Ballot
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Toward the end of the press conference, however, Lord
John Tomlinson, a UK member of the CoE delegation made a
"personal statement" which blunted the effect of the
delegation's official statement. He stated that while he was
"absolutely" certain that the government's turnout figure of
1.4 million was a fabrication, he was equally certain that
turnout exceeded the 750,000 required for a "yes" vote to be
valid. Journalists questioned how Tomlinson could come to
such a judgment after having visited only 15 polling
stations.
Local Observers Report due November 29
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10. (C) The domestic observer group "It's Your Choice" (IYC)
deployed 1,200 observers across Armenia. While it has not
yet compiled its findings, Harutyun Hambardzumian, IYC's
president, expressed his disappointment at the conduct of the
CoE observer delegation. He claimed that CoE observers did
not coordinate their activities with IYC nor did they share
contact information. Hambardzumian said that one IYC
observer was assaulted while trying to report violations.
(Note: CoE observers lamented that they saw few domestic
observers at any of the polling stations they visited. End
Note.) Hambardzumian rejected the voter turnout figures of
both the government and the opposition, saying that he
believes IYC's data will show the true turnout figures as
falling somewhere in between. IYC has scheduled a press
conference for November 29.

Council of Europe Press Statement
--------------


11. (U) Begin text of Council of Europe Press Statement:

The Council of Europe observers to the Constitutional
Referendum held on 27 November 2005 in Armenia regret the
decision taken by the authorities which precluded the
attendance of any other international observers. The
transparency of the referendum was further hampered by the
decision of the parliamentary opposition to call on their
members to withdraw from the electoral commissions. It is
also regrettable that political pluralism inside polling
stations was not better assisted by a greater number of
domestic observers.

The 14 member delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly and
the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities noted that the
Referendum generally reflected the free will of those who
voted. However, on voting day the observers witnessed
serious abuse in several polling stations which cast a shadow
over the credibility of the officially announced turn-out.

On 25 and 26 November the delegation had meetings with the
authorities, opposition members, NGOs, media representatives
and the international community. The observers' impression
was that during the campaign leading to the Referendum there
was not equal access to the media. This was to the
disadvantage of the opposition to the constitutional changes
and hampered genuine democratic debate.

The Council of Europe observers visited around 150 polling
stations in the capital and across the country on voting day.
The general atmosphere was calm and no incidents of public
disorder were witnessed. In the majority of the polling
stations visited the conduct of the poll was in compliance
with international standards.

However, in a significant number of polling stations in
Yerevan and other regions this was not so. The extremely low
voting activity did not correspond to the high figures
provided by the electoral commissions. There were also clear
instances of forged additional signatures on the voters
register and of ballot stuffing. The electoral regulations,
requiring the stamping of the ballot after completion,
created numerous situations where the secrecy of the vote was
not respected. Military voting appeared to lack the
voluntarism which is the hallmark of democratic participation.

In conclusion, the delegation considers that the abuses that
marred the referendum were against the intent and interest of
the Armenian people. It expects that the Central Electoral
Commission investigate thoroughly all the allegations brought
to its attention and that all the necessary measures will be
taken against those responsible for fraud.

End Text.


12. (SBU) Begin Text of Recommended Press guidance:

- We note the statement of the Observer Delegation of the
Council of Europe calls into serious question the voter
turnout figures reported by the government

- We share their regret that the Government of Armenia chose
not to invite observers from the OSCE's Office of Democratic
Institutions and Human Rights. A full complement of
international observers, deployed for a longer period
throughout the Republic of Armenia, would have given greater
credibility to the results of the voting.

- We note that the observer delegation statement reported
serious abuses and allegations of fraud. These allegations
should be investigated.

- It is clear that there is room for improvement in the
voting process between now and the 2007 - 2008 parliamentary
and presidential elections.

- We are working closely with the Government of Armenia,
political parties and with civil society to implement a
package of democracy-building measures aimed at helping
Armenia achieve free and fair elections in 2007 - 2008.
EVANS