COE DELEGATION TO OBSERVE IN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002065

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: COE DELEGATION TO OBSERVE IN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
OF POLLING PLACES

REF: YEREVAN 2061

Classified By: DCM A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
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1. (C) Supporters and opponents of Armenia's November 27
referendum have shifted their focus to the capital in the
final days before the ballot. Competing rallies have drawn
lower-than-expected attendance and there have been few
reports of confrontation. While most political observers
expect irregularities as votes are cast, documenting these
irregularities will be difficult. The Council of Europe's
election observation commission -- just ten observers in all
and the only official international observers for the
referendum -- told us that they will only be able to cover an
estimated 120 polling places during this weekend's balloting.
The GOAM claims, however, that it has registered 16,000
local observers for the election. It is not yet clear
exactly how many votes are needed for a "yes" win as the
Central Election Commission has not yet posted the total
number of voters registered. With such a weak international
component of official observers, it will take longer than
usual to reach a judgment about the conduct of the ballot.
We understand the EU presidency plans to delay issuance of a
statement until November 29; we propose that it would be
prudent to wait as well. End Summary.

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DELEGATION CAN ONLY HIT 120 POLLING STATIONS
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2. (C) According to the Tomas Jirsa, head of the Council of
Europe's (CoE) election observeration mission, the CoE teams
will only be able to cover less than five percent of polling
places (an estimated 120 stations) during the November 27
referendum on constitutional amendments. The ten-person CoE
delegation arrived late November 24 and is meeting with GOAM
officials and political figures in advance of this weekend's
vote. The Ambassador participated in a briefing together
with local embassies in an effort to bring the delegation up
to speed on the political atmosphere and technical
preparations for the election. We have obtained a copy of
the delegation's 25-point observation questionnaire that they
created from larger OSCE observation documents. Jirsa said
the delegation will hold a press conference on November 28
(1400hrs local time) to make a statement on their findings.

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CEC STILL WILL NOT GIVE AN OFFICIAL TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS
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3. (C) Armenia's Central Election Commission told us that
they have accredited 16,000 observers for this weekend's
referendum. The CEC delayed the widely-anticipated
announcement of the official total number of registered
voters against which the threshold for passage will be
calculated (ref) until late on November 26.

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RALLIES ATTRACT HUNDREDS, NOT THOUSANDS
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4. (C) Rallies planned for November 24 and 25 in downtown
Yerevan have proven mostly uneventful, although the
opposition accused law enforcement officials of provoking a
violent scuffle in the Yerevan district of Malatia-Sebastia
late November 24. The local press reports that a man was
hospitalized as a result of the incident. The opposition
supporter claims he was beaten by police while the police
claim he was resisting arrest. We observed protesters in the
hundreds during peaceful events on November 24 and 25 that
included an automobile caravan through downtown Yerevan and
an open-air meeting. These numbers contradicted earlier
claims by opposition leaders (made in the press and to us
privately) predicting that thousands of supporters would meet
for the pre-vote protests.


5. (C) The government announced that Opera Square -- the
site of large protest rallies in 2003 and 2004 -- was booked
for 72 hours of concerts dedicated to the "Yes" campaign from
November 27-29. Opponents of the referendum will either have
to move their gatherings away from the center or risk giving
the GOAM a way to declare their event illegal.

Comment
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6. (C) With so few international observers accredited, it
will be difficult to come quickly to an objective view about
the conduct of the referendum. The most authoritative local
observer group, the NDI-supported "It's Your Choice" NGO
plans to wait until Tuesday, November 29 to make a statement
to the press. The UK Charge told us that he will delay an EU
statement until November 29 as well, but is not sure that he
will be able to restrain all of his colleagues. While there
will be strong demand from the press for the U.S. to make a
statement on November 28, we believe it would be best to wait
until all reports are in.
EVANS