Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05YEREVAN2031
2005-11-18 12:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM NOT QUITE ON THE RIGHT TRACK?

Tags:  PREL PGOV AM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

181207Z Nov 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002031 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM NOT QUITE ON THE RIGHT TRACK?

REF: A) YEREVAN 1994 B) YEREVAN 1993

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

-------
SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002031

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM NOT QUITE ON THE RIGHT TRACK?

REF: A) YEREVAN 1994 B) YEREVAN 1993

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) While Armenia's leaders state they are committed to
running a clean referendum on November 27, some recent
actions call this into question. The GOAM has decided to
permit no international observers except those from the
Council of Europe and it is pulling out all the stops to
promote a "yes" vote, including requiring teachers and other
government employees to use official resources to get out the
vote. While we watch these developments with concern, we are
not yet entirely ready to write off Armenia's prospects to do
the right thing in the upcoming constitutional referendum.
End Summary.

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INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS NEED NOT APPLY
--------------


2. (C) With the exception of a limited number of Council of
Europe observers that National Assembly Speaker Baghdasarian
invited earlier this year, the GOAM has declined to invite
OSCE observers despite personal appeals by numerous
senior-level, member-state officials and Congressman Hastings
(ref A). While local Armenian NGOs have been able to
register as observers, the lack of what the Armenian public
perceives as generally impartial, international observers
will seriously undermine any GOAM attempt to portray the
upcoming referendum as fully free and fair. NDI and IFES,
both of whom routinely monitor local and other elections in
Armenia, have both failed to garner authorization to monitor
the November 27 referendum.

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MINISTERS PUSH HARD FOR A "YES" VOTE
--------------


3. (C) Minister of Foreign Affairs Oskanian and Minister of
Agriculture Lokian lobbied hard for the proposed constitution
during a meeting with a group of 400 Armenian farmers that
was heavily covered by Armenian media. The ministers linked
successful passage of the proposed constitutional amendments
to a potential Millenium Challenge Corporation compact (which
would be expected to include significant rural infrastructure
projects). Public officials have taken every opportunity to
urge Armenians to vote "yes" in the upcoming November 27
referendum.

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OPPOSITION LOOKING TO TAKE CREDIT FOR APATHY
--------------


4. (C) After several months of dithering about whether to
urge Armenians to vote "no" or to boycott the referendum,
opposition leaders seemed to discover that they could boost
their perceived popularity by claiming that each registered
voter who does not show up on November 27 is actually one of
their loyal supporters. Now all the various opposition
factions have moved to calling for a boycott. Opposition
think-tanker Shahnazarian told us in September that the only
"logical" move was to call for a boycott since most voters
wouldn't bother voting and that the opposition wasn't in a
position to mobilize people to vote "no." Shahnazarian also
noted that potential fraud would be easier to detect if
participation levels in the referendum were clearly too low
to make the vote valid. Self-annointed father of the new
Armenian constitution and Deputy Speaker of the National
Assembly Tigran Torosian has tried to limit the opportunities
for the opposition to claim support if people didn't go to
the polls in great numbers on the 27th. Torosian recently
pointed out that the opposition would try to claim the people
who were indifferent to any election as their allies,
"However, (the opposition needs) to be reminded that 45
percent of the voters usually do not vote, so when they make
their calculations in the end, they need to remove this 45
percent from the number of voters that did not participate
and not count them in favor of the opposition." What
Torosian failed to note in his remarks, however, was that if
fewer than two-thirds of the electorate participates in the
vote, then the referendum will fail.

-------------- --------------
COMMENT: THERE'S STILL TIME TO RUN A CLEAN REFERENDUM
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Although the GOAM's promotion of the proposed package
of amendments has gone well beyond the merely zealous (ref
B),with verified accounts of public schoo teachers receiving
instructions to not only vote, but to vote to approve the
amendments, and with the GOAM sending (no-cost) text messages
to all cellphone subscribers in Armenia to urge them to vote
"yes," the GOAM still has the chance to run a clean
referendum, were they to so choose. By keeping international
observers at bay, however, the GOAM appears to be setting the
stage for an outcome that no one will be in a position to
certify as "free and fair" even were it to be so.
GODFREY