PUBLICITY AND CASH PUSH FOR A "YES" VOTE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001993

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: PUBLICITY AND CASH PUSH FOR A "YES" VOTE IN
REFERENDUM RUN-UP

Classified By: Ambassador J.M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) While politicians on both sides of the issue are busy
trading political capital over the issue of proposed
constitutional amendments, pro-government forces are spending
hefty amounts of hard cash in a nationwide publicity campaign
aimed to get out the "yes" vote. Post views the "Yes" media
blitz as the most extensive political information campaign
since the country's parliamentary elections in 2003. The
GOAM reports only a modest operating budget for the
coordination of its "Ayo" (Armenian for "Yes") campaign and
claims that independent, grassroots NGOs are responsible for
most of the major advertising and informational meetings
being held around the country. Contacts both in and out of
the government claim, however, that big business close to
President Kocharian is footing the bill for the majority of
the campaign. It is likely that big businesses' financial
backing of the campaign is their support for what some in the
opposition want to portray as a vote of confidence on the
current administration. Opposition groups meanwhile continue
to urge their supporters to stay away from the polls or vote
against the referendum on November 27. An opposition convoy
is wending its way across Armenia, leaving anti-Kocharian
rhetoric, and questions about the cohesive approach of the
opposition, in its wake. End summary.

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EVERYTHING'S COMING-UP "AYO" AROUND YEREVAN
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2. (SBU) President Robert Kocharian's November 3 meeting with
university students was the official kick-off for the GOAM's
campaign in support of the November 27 constitutional
referendum. Political parties, pro-government NGOs and the
GOAM's constitutional reform coordination council are
sponsoring a nationwide publicity campaign ostensibly aimed
at "informing citizens about the constitution," though it is
clearly more geared toward getting out the "yes" vote. The
GOAM has already begun printing and distributing more than
one million copies of the draft constitutional amendments
package and an accompanying explanation of its implications.
Dozens of colorful billboards and posters have sprung up in
Yerevan and surrounding towns urging citizens to "vote 'Yes'
toward the future." Sophisticated television and radio
advertisements with similar messages run on almost all media
outlets. One NGO has established a "Vote Yes" toll-free
information hotline, website and "information center" in one
of Yerevan's busiest shopping districts. The "Yes" media
blitz is the most extensive political information campaign
since the country's parliamentary elections in 2003. (Note:
The high number of new outdoor advertising spaces in Yerevan
-- which environmental and diaspora groups have criticized
heavily over the past 36 months -- is partly to thank for the
campaign's perceived effectiveness around Armenia's capital
city. One advertising company recently told us that there
are now three times the number of available billboards in
Yerevan compared to those that were available during the last
two nationwide elections in 2002 and 2003. End Note.)

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FRIENDS WITH DEEP POCKETS RUMORED TO BE FOOTING THE BILL
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3. (C) The GOAM's official constitutional reform coordination
council, chaired by Orinats-Yerkir MP Mher Shaghdelian, is a
loosely-managed clearing house for information and programs
related to the November 27 vote. We met recently with
Shaghdelian to discuss the operations of the council and were
surprised to hear him disavow rumors of a hefty operating
budget or a clearly defined media strategy. Shaghdelian said
that an alliance of 24 political parties meets regularly to
update each other on their individual efforts, but that each
party was mobilizing its constituents with minimal influence
from him or the council. According to Shaghdelian,
legislation limits party spending for referenda to USD 23,000
per party, per referendum. Armenia's Central Bank told us
that only six political parties, including the three parties
of the governing coalition, have registered such accounts for
the November 27 election.


4. (C) Shaghdelian admitted, however, that the impressive
"Ayo" campaign was backed by a small number of NGOs such as
the Nig-Aparan Compatriot Union (led by the Prosecutor
General),a coalition of student unions (supported by the
Ministries of Education and Culture) and other groups who
appeared on Armenia's already dense NGO scene within the past
month. Local employees from USG assistance implementing
partners (including Catholic Relief Services and Junior
Achievement-Armenia) have told Post that local oligarchs are
funding these organizations through off-the-books
contributions. Larisa Minasyan, Chief of Party of the Open
Society Institute, claims that President Kocharian summoned
his closest contributors in mid-October to "inspire their
generosity" during the campaign as a symbol of support for
the administration. National Assembly advisor Paryur
Santrosyan suggested to us that Kocharian's friends were
"taking a big part of the financial burden" for the campaign.
Working-level contacts at the Ministry of Finance and
Economy, American University of Armenia and National Assembly
have made similar reports. (Note: Local newspapers,
normally eager to echo rumors of this kind, have been mostly
silent about murmurings of local oligarchs' involvement in
financing the campaign. End Note.)


5. (C) In a November 10 conversation with the Ambassador,
Justice Minister David Harutunian was more pessimistic about
the "yes" effort. He lamented the absence of a high-level
debate on the substance of the issue. He said he thought too
much TV air time was spent on large, showy meetings where the
issue took a back seat to their presentations.

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OPPOSITION STRIKES "YES" FROM ITS VOCABULARY
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6. (C) Opposition leaders are working hard to counter the
"yes" rhetoric with a campaign to thwart the November 27
referendum. Leaders of the opposition Justice Bloc have
taken their message to rural Armenia by way of a motorcade
that, according to opposition press reports, has grown to
include more than 100 automobiles. During their stops in
towns and villages, opposition leaders are urging supporters
to use the referendum as their best chance to force Kocharian
from power. Despite their concerted effort to protest around
the country, the opposition has not yet announced a unified
policy on how their supporters should act on November 27.
Stepan Demirchian's People's Party and the National
Democratic Union are calling for supporters to stay away from
polls on November 27. A group of 17 smaller opposition
parties (including the Republic Party) are asking their
members to abstain, spoil their ballots by writing
anti-Kocharian message on them or vote "no" at the polls.
Some opposition leaders, including Republic Party leader Aram
Sargsian, have even called for supporters to gather in
Yerevan on the day of the election to protest the Kocharian
administration. It is not apparent that the opposition
parties have organized a nationwide advertising campaign
against the referendum. Sargsian claimed that television
stations are refusing to air advertisements against the
referendum but would not name the television stations and has
since backed away from this claim. In a creative twist,
opposition leaders this week urged their supporters not to
use the word "yes" in their conversation or speeches in the
period leading up to the November 27 election. Opposition
leader Hovannes Hovannisyan told us that the strategy is both
a form of protest and protection against being "improperly
quoted by the pro-Kocharian media."

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COMMENT: IF MONEY TALKS, MAYBE "YES" REALLY MEANS "YES"
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7. (C) The GOAM and pro-government forces are investing a lot
to get out the "yes" vote on November 27. This campaign
appears to be more than just a nominal effort aimed at
countering OSCE/ODIHR criticism of Kocharian's administration
during the failed 2003 referendum. On the political front,
Kocharian has linked all parts of the governing coalition to
the November 27 vote. By assigning NA Speaker Baghdasaryan's
close ally, Shaghdelian, to run the coordination council, he
has forced the National Assembly to take a strong stance on
the issue. The presence of all coalition parties on the
council (including the ARF-Dashnaksutyun party which has been
otherwise reluctant to link themselves to the referendum)
means that everyone's political reputation -- not just
Kocharian's -- is now at stake on November 27. Most telling,
however, is the amount of money that someone (we believe
local big business) is pumping into the public relations
campaign. While it isn't an indication of their total
commitment to democratic governance, the expenditures suggest
that pro-government forces indeed want this package of
amendments to succeed badly enough to cash in favors from
their political cash cows to move it ahead.
EVANS