CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: EUR A/S FRIED'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001938

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SNEC, EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV OTRA AM
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: EUR A/S FRIED'S
MEETING WITH ARMENIAN OPINION MAKERS

REF: A) YEREVAN 1790 B) YEREVAN 1764 C) YEREVAN 1749

D) YEREVAN 1692

Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: During an October 18 lunch meeting with
Armenian government officials, opposition parliamentarians,
and academics, A/S Fried heard competing arguments about the
package of constitutional amendments (reftels) slated for
referendum on November 27. Supporters maintained the
amendments, while not perfect, constituted a positive step --
supported by the Armenian public -- toward democratic rule.
Detractors asserted that, in the unlikely event a
disenfranchised electorate overcomes the high voter threshold
to pass the amendments, the current government will exploit
loopholes to retain its "authoritarian" rule. Ambassador
Evans moderated as participants maintained their scripted
positions (reftels) and displayed a hard-headed unwillingness
to compromise or approach the process of democratic reform
responsibly.

Participants included:

EUR Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried
Ambassador John Evans
Ambassador Steven Mann
DCM Anthony Godfrey
EUR/SNEC Deputy Director Elizabeth Rood
Yerevan Pol/Econ notetaker

Minister of Justice David Harutyunian
National Assembly Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian
Opposition MP Stepan Zakarian
Opposition MP Artashes Geghamian
Opposition MP Shavarsh Kocharian
Opposition MP Vazgen Manukian
Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakossian
Academy of Public Administration Rector Armen Harutyunyan
Democracy NGO Chair Vardan Poghosian End Summary.

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AMENDMENTS "NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT" FOR DEMOCRACY
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2. (C) During an October 18 lunch meeting with Armenian
government officials, opposition parliamentarians, and
academics, Minister of Justice David Harutyunian told A/S
Fried that his government's package of constitutional
amendments, while not perfect, represents a positive step
toward -- and a necessary GOAM commitment to -- Armenian
democracy. Constitutional amendments co-author and National
Assembly Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian told Fried he
believed the amendments would play a "significant role" in
establishing "irreversible mechanisms for democracy."


3. (C) Both Harutyunian and Torosian quoted Ambassador Evans
-- "constitutional reform is necessary but not sufficient for
democracy" -- and claimed the GOAM has the political will to
actually implement the reforms. Fried emphasized USG support
for free and fair elections in the November 27 referendum as
well as the 2007 parliamentary and presidential elections.
Harutyunian said the Armenian government "has no intention of
interfering" with votes, particularly given past and present
scrutiny of elections. The November 27 referendum, Torosian
said, will be "free and fair."

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OPPOSITION: "NO POLITICAL WILL TO IMPLEMENT REFORMS"
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4. (C) Advocating more immediate steps toward democratic
reform, opposition National Democratic Union MP Vazgen
Manukian told A/S Fried "democracy is not a poison to take in
small doses so it won't affect you." The GOAM, Manukian
asserted, is "only pretending" to have interest in democratic
reform to placate "European institutions" pushing for the
measures. Public interest in constitutional reform doesn't
exist, Manukian asserted, and adopting a new constitution
will only delay meaningful change. Opposition Peoples' Party
MP Stephan Zakarian added that flawed elections, restrictions
on press freedoms, and a "lack of political will to implement
reforms" are among the factors that contribute to an
atmosphere of distrust in an already apathetic electorate.
"People just don't believe that a dictator can suddenly
become a democrat," Zakarian said.


5. (C) Opposition National Unity leader MP Artashes Geghamyan
told Fried he would only support the constitutional
amendments -- which Geghamyan admitted were positive -- "if
the government commits in advance to early national
elections." To understand where this country is going,
Geghamyan told Fried, "you have to look at where we've been."
Since independence, the government has been unable "to
stabilize this country." Geghamyan thanked A/S Fried for the
USG's "continued support for democratic reform in Armenia,"
but asserted that Armenian voters had witnessed little
progress and will invest even less trust in "a government
that violates the principles of democracy." (Note:
Geghamyan asked A/S Fried to encourage President Kocharian to
accept the National Unity Party's call for early elections
following the referendum. A/S Fried declined but noted he
would emphasize the USG's interest in free and fair elections
at a meeting with Kocharian later in the day. End Note.)


6. (C) Citing a high voter threshold and low public interest,
opposition National Assembly Justice Party MP Shavarsh
Kocharyan repeated his frequent predictions that the
amendments would fail in referendum. Kocharyan told A/S
Fried that Armenians have few guarantees that the amendments
would bar the president from seeking a third term in office.
"If the government really intended to take steps toward
democracy, it would take steps to build public trust,"
according to Kocharyan, who also told Fried that the
government has done little to turn around its legacy of
fraudulent elections. (Note: Publicly, Shavarsh Kocharyan
is an outspoken critic of the regime and the referendum,
although he is a co-author of the amendments.)

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FRIED: TIME TO ESTABLISH THE RULES OF THE GAME
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7. (C) Reinforcing Ambassador Evans' public statements
throughout the constitutional amendments debate (reftels),
A/S Fried emphasized USG support for free and fair elections
and urged participants to make a good-faith effort to first
establish the rules, then debate the direction of the
democracy. Ambassador Evans reminded participants that the
USG will both announce a package of assistance designed to
promote free and fair elections in 2007 and 2008, and monitor
Armenia's progress on democratic reform as a criterion for
Millennium Challenge Grant eligibility.

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COMMENT: THE LONG ROAD TO REFERENDUM
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8. (C) Throughout the lunch meeting, government and
opposition participants repeated their well-known positions
on the constitutional amendments and the November 27
referendum (reftels). Participants sparred over accusations
that opposing sides were responsible for a meltdown in
dialogue, opposition members in particular complaining that
the ruling coalition excluded them from the pre-referendum
constitutional debate. While a helpful window on the
political wrangling leading up to the referendum, the lunch
illustrated how members of the Armenian political elite --
both the governing coalition and the opposition -- are still
unwilling to compromise and seemingly unable to approach the
debate with open minds.


9. (U) EUR/FO has cleared this message.
EVANS