ADOLESCENT GROWING PAINS: ARMENIA'S PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001932

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: ADOLESCENT GROWING PAINS: ARMENIA'S PARLIAMENT
TURNS FIFTEEN

Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Armenia's National Assembly marked its fifteenth
anniversary November 1 with an international symposium that
included legislators from around the globe and familiar
political posturing by political figures from around the
country. National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan used
the conference as a chance to take credit for the contacts he
has forged through an aggressive travel program involving
legislators in Europe and Asia. As expected, formal remarks
emphasized the importance of the November 27 constitutional
referendum as a guarantor of the National Assembly's
political relevance. Unexpected, however, was the deflated
tone of Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosyan, who has been the GOAM
official most closely involved in the constitutional
amendments process. Torosyan's prediction for the November
27 balloting was less rosy than his colleagues' and he did
not hide his dissatisfaction with the GOAM's campaign in
support of the amendments. USAID-Armenia Director Robin
Phillips discussed the link between donors' development
efforts and strengthening democracy in Armenia. The
conference itself was symbolic of some of the National
Assembly's greatest challenges: spotty attendance, unruly
rhetoric and the opposition's self-absorbed participation
caught the attention of many of the foreign guests as
familiar problems in the National Assembly hall. End Summary.

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BAGHDSASARYAN REVELS IN HIS INTERNATIONAL GUEST-LIST
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2. (C) Armenia's National Assembly marked its fifteenth
anniversary November 1 with an international symposium that
included legislators from around the globe and familiar
political posturing by political figures from around the
country. The National Assembly Speaker used the conference
as a chance to take credit for the contacts he has forged
through an aggressive travel program involving legislators in
Europe and Asia. Deputy Speakers of the Russian State Duma,
Greek, Norwegian, Kazakh and Georgian Parliaments were
honorary co-chairs of the event. Throughout the opening two
sessions, Baghdasaryan met with each of the visiting
delegations (that included legislators from Chile, Belgium,
France, Italy, Germany, Romania, Lebanon, Latvia, Russia,
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and China). According to
Baghdasaryan's Chief of Staff, these meetings were a chance
for Baghdasaryan to re-visit the memoranda of understanding
he has signed with the legislatures of sixteen countries to
date and press hard for a formal document with the remaining
countries. Comment: Baghdasaryan had been criticized early
on in his tenure for spending too much energy on courting
ties with his international counterparts. While it is still
unclear how much -- if any -- substance underpins the
formalities of these memoranda of understanding, the cadre of
parliamentarians who accepted his invitation to this
conference indicates that he's been successful in deepening
his contacts. Former National Assembly Speaker and Prime
Minister (and political rival) Khosrov Harutyunyan even
pointed to the guest list as Baghdasaryan's contribution and
publicly congratulated him. End Comment.

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REFERENDUM STEALS THE SHOW
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3. (C) Most speakers' formal remarks emphasized the
importance of the November 27 constitutional referendum as a
guarantor of the National Assembly's political relevance. As
one of the most widely-publicized events at the National
Assembly in recent months, the meeting gave politicians the
chance to speak their minds about the package of
constitutional amendments. Pro-government speakers included
the chairs of the National Assembly's standing committees who
echoed Baghdasaryan's enthusiastic endorsements of the
amendments as the "only way to bring Parliament to the
People" and provide checks on the Executive's power. MP
Hranush Hakobian delivered a long speech outlining how the
amendments would curb the President's ability to "legislate
without a mandate." Opposition parliamentarians, of whom
there were only a handful by the second hour of the
conference, spoke their minds to journalists during meeting
breaks. Opposition party members made it clear that the
opposition still has not decided on a single strategy for the
November 27 vote. Some parties are calling for voters to
stay away from the polls entirely, while others are
encouraging voters to vote against the package. Comment: We
expect that parties will opt increasingly for the boycott as
more politically advantageous. "No" or abstaining votes
could reveal just how weak opposition support is -- in
contrast to their claims of overwhelming support in Armenia's
regions. End Comment.

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TOROSYAN: LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT NOV 27?
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4. (C) The most notable part of the conference was the
deflated tone of Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosyan's speech.
Torosyan said the National Assembly had to overcome the
relatively weak understanding of party politics in Armenia.
He slammed the large number of "artificial, populist parties"
in Armenia that weakened the National Assembly's credibility
and performance. He called on the opposition to come to
grips with the fact that it may not always be out of power
and to embrace the role of a productive opposition and accept
its role in parliament. Torosyan, the member of the GOAM who
has been most closely involved in the constitutional
amendments process, was less optimistic about the viability
of the amendments package than he has been in the past.
Torosyan, unlike his colleagues from the other coalition
parties, refused to call for victory during the November 27
election. He hinted that a defeat for the constitutional
amendments would be a great shame for Armenia, but stopped
short of predicting a win for Armenian democracy in the form
of a "yes" vote.


5. (C) Torosyan commented to us in private that he was
unhappy with the way the GOAM's campaign in support of the
amendments was taking shape. He told us he had hoped for an
informational program about the substance of the proposed
changes rather than a "propaganda campaign telling people how
to vote." He hinted, however, that there was a dialogue
underway to tweak the campaign (including the printing and
nationwide distribution of almost one million copies of the
constitution and amendments). He did not mask his
irritation, however, at the opposition's tactics leading up
to November 27. He accused the opposition of spreading
misinformation about the substance of the amendments in an
effort to dissuade less-informed citizens from going to the
polls. He pointed to a recent poll conducted by a local news
agency claiming that a considerable percentage of Armenians
still had not decided how they would vote on November 27.
Torosyan clearly views this group as an opportunity for the
opposition, as well as the GOAM, to wield influence.
Comment: Torosyan is at times prone to let his mood affect
his work. His less-than-ebouillent performance on November 2
may be a temporary slump. He is in a good position to
predict the viability of the referendum package, however. We
will be closely following his remarks during the next few
weeks. End Comment.

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DONOR EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN THE LEGISLATURE
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6. (C) Representatives from international donor organizations
resident in Yerevan showed up in large numbers for the event.
USAID-Armenia Director Robin Phillips discussed the link
between donors' development efforts and strengthening
democracy in Armenia. Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF
- "Dashnaksutyun") leader and Foreign Relations Standing
Committee Chair Armen Rustamyan was enthusiastic during his
remarks about the positive impact of inter-parliamentary
cooperation facilitated by international organizations in
Armenia. (Note: USAID's Armenia Legislative Strengthening
Program, together with smaller programs sponsored by the
European Commission, continues to work with the National
Assembly to develop the National Assembly's institutional
capacity and de-mystify the legislative process for Armenians
nationwide. The program is among the most successful
initiatives sponsored by Freedom Support Act funds at Post.
End Note.)

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COMMENT: LOTS OF ROOM FOR GROWTH
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7. (C) Armenia's National Assembly has come a long way and
has had to overcome the usual set of challenges faced by a
new democracy -- as well as the jarring terrorist act of
October 1999 when gunmen opened fire in Parliament. The
conference itself, however upbeat, was symbolic of some of
the National Assembly's greatest challenges: spotty
attendance, unruly rhetoric and the opposition's
self-absorbed participation caught the attention of many of
the foreign guests in the National Assembly hall. The
European Union's Marie-Anne Isler-Beguin referenced this
reality and made extremely clear the EU's opinion that
Armenia's legislature -- and democracy in general in the
country -- still had a long way yet to go in Armenia. She
told participants not to expect an invitation to join the EU
unless the country made peace with its neighbors and
participated as a full-faith member in the EU's neighborhood
initiatives. Unfortunately, most of the Armenian MPs had
left the room or were on their cell phones during her speech.
EVANS