RADICAL OPPOSITION PARTY SPLITS OVER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001690

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TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: RADICAL OPPOSITION PARTY SPLITS OVER
"REVOLUTION"


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accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) On August 30 Armenia's radical opposition
Republic party split, ending a year of increasingly
vocal disagreements between pro-Western party leader
Aram Z. Sargsian and pro-Russian Albert Bazeyan (former
party chairman and former Yerevan mayor). Despite the
split (both Sargsian and Bazeyan are members of the
National Assembly) and loss of some regional party
structures, we expect that Sargsian will be able to
hold the Republic party together, while strengthening
its ideological unity. End Summary.

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SHOUTING REVOLUTION DOES NOT CAUSE ONE
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2. (SBU) On August 30, seven of the fifteen-member
ruling board of Armenia's radical opposition Republic
party expressed their disagreement with the party
leader Aram Z. Sargsian by leaving the party.
Following this Albert Bazeyan and Vagharshak
Harutyunyan (another member of the ruling board and
former Defense Minister) released sharply critical
statements, saying that recent Republic party positions
were unacceptable -- in particular the party's stated
hopes to resolve the internal problems of the country
with foreign (i.e., U.S.) assistance, the unrealistic
evaluation of the existing political situation, and
regular, "empty promises" of revolution. Bazeyan's
breakaway from the Republic party (although he remains
part of the Justice Bloc) leaves Sargsian as the sole
Republic Party member in the 131-seat National
Assembly. (Note: Since Sargsian is continuing his
boycott of the National Assembly, this has little real
relevance. End Note.)

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PARTY CLAIMS BREAKAWAY WAS ON GOVERNMENT ORDERS
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3. (SBU) Bazeyan claimed that 75 percent the regional
and 50 percent of the primary structures of the 6000
member party had walked out with the break-away
leadership. Sargsian, however, insisted that the
defection was minimal, and hinted that Bazeyan, who did
not like Sargsian's pro-Western political orientation,
was acting on the government's orders. We expect that,
despite the organizational losses including regional
offices in Gyumri, Arabkir, Ashtarak and Etchmiadzin,
Sargsian will be able to keep the party together, and
strengthen its ideological unity.


4. (SBU) Republic Party members Artak Zeynalyan and
Gegham Harutyunyan told us that, in the party's
opinion, Bazeyan's move was "orchestrated by the
authorities." They also claimed that not only has
there not been a major party defection, but that people
are joining the party "to express their support." A
USAID implementer also insisted that Bazeyan's comments
about the outflow were false, only Bazeyan's personal
network of friends and relatives left the party,
according to the implementer. He noted, howeer, that
Aram Sargsian is currently touring the regions to
ensure regional support for the party. The only major
fight, according to the implementer, is around the
Gyumri branch of the party, where support is about even
for Sargsian and Bazeyan.

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A GROWING CONFLICT THAT BLEW UP
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5. (SBU) Disagreements between Aram Sargsian and Albert
Bazeyan are not new. Until recently the Republic had
two de facto leaders: Bazeyan, the chairman and
organizational party leader, and Sargsian, the
President and "spiritual" party leader. Bazeyan
stepped down from his post in the spring of 2005 as
Sargsian declared a total break with Russia, and a
movement to adopt Western democratic values via a
democratic revolution.

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COMMENT: WHAT NEXT?
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6. (SBU) Party member Artak Zeynalyan claimed that
Bazeyan had hindered any "decisive action" that the
Republic Party had planned, and with Bazeyen out of the
way, the Republic Party is ready to start "acting."
Although the Republic Party continues to call for
imminent revolution, however, it has few concrete
allies in sight (despite inaccurate press reports
citing a proposed alliance between the Armenian
National Movement and the Republic Party),and
revolution does not appear to be in the cards any time
soon.
EVANS