AMBASSADOR PRESSES KOCHARIAN TO SUPPORT USG

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001686

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DAS BRYZA),EUR/ACE (ADAMS) AND
EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID PHUM AM
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR PRESSES KOCHARIAN TO SUPPORT USG
DEMOCRATIZATION ACTIVITIES

Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (S) On 15 September, the Ambassador met with President
Kocharian for just over an hour, at our request, primarily to
discuss the USG's upcoming push for free and fair elections
in Armenia in 2007 (parliamentary) and 2008 (presidential).
The Ambassador opened the meeting by thanking Kocharian for
Armenia's contribution to the Katrina relief effort. The
Ambassador then stressed the importance of conducting a free
and fair referendum in November on Armenia's constitutional
amendments. Next, the Ambassador presented USG plans for
assistance to support free and fair elections in 2007 and
2008, and Kocharian signaled his endorsement of such efforts.
In these connections, the Ambassador pointed out that
improved democracy performance in Armenia was not only
important to Kocharian's legacy, but also to Armenia's
continuing eligibility for MCA (Millennium Challenge Account)
resources. Following a brief discussion of the generally
positive outcome of the Kocharian-Aliyev conversations in
Kazan, the Ambassador and Kocharian discussed the upcoming
USATF (Assistance Task Force) meeting in Washington. USAID
Director Robin Phillips participated. END SUMMARY.

KATRINA CONTRIBUTION
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2. (U) The Ambassador opened the meeting by expressing
President Bush's thanks for Armenia's offer of search and
rescue forces, and the $200,000 cash donation to support the
U.S. in the Katrina relief effort. The Ambassador indicated
that, although the former offer was not taken up, the USG
very much appreciated both. Kocharian said it was a small
gesture, and pointed out that global climate change appeared
to be negatively affecting many countries.

SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY-BUILDING
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3. (S) The Ambassador reminded Kocharian that the Council of
Europe, The European Union, the OSCE, and the Embassy had
recently supported Kocharian's government's proposed
constitutional amendments, including the Ambassador's local
op-ed piece on the subject. The Ambassador also mentioned
that he had met individually with a number of key leaders of
opposition parties to attempt to persuade them of the merits
of supporting the constitutional amendments, and to tell them
that it is important to get the "rules of the game"
established, and to then fight the good political fight on
the basis of those rules. The Ambassador also listed three
possible outcomes of the November referendum on the
amendments: (a) the amendments pass with a fair and free
referendum; (b) the amendments do not pass; or (c) the
amendments pass, but with irregularities in the conduct of
the referendum, followed by demonstrations, possible
provocations and police overreaction to them. The Ambassador
said this third outcome would be decidedly bad for Armenia
and its international reputation, and could jeopardize the
future of any MCA compact. Kocharian responded that he had
little to lose with either the first or second outcome, so
that there was no need to consider the third as a
possibility. He also said that he was above directing any
inappropriate intervention in the referendum. The Ambassador
responded that even inappropriate intervention by lower-level
government forces could tarnish the government's image and
set things back.


4. (S) The Ambassador then unveiled our proposed USG-funded
plan to support Armenia's 2007 (parliamentary) and 2008
(presidential) elections, handing Kocharian a one-page
summary of the program. The Ambassador stressed that a key
element to the success of the program would be developing an
accurate voters' registry, and said that those in the GOAM
currently working on such a registry (elements of OVIR and
the police) have thus far rebuffed offers of external
technical assistance. Kocharian strongly endorsed an
accurate registry, and on the spot directed his attendant
personal advisor to be in touch with the authorities now
working on the registry to discuss the USG assistance with US
experts next week.


5. (S) Kocharian expressed concern regarding NDI's (the
National Democratic Institute's) implementing the proposed
election support program. (COMMENT: Embassy believes that
Kocharian's concern is partially related to frequent press
speculation, here and elsewhere, that NDI has figured
prominently in the region's recent "revolutions". END
COMMENT.) The Ambassador responded that the proposed program
would be implemented not only by NDI, but also by IRI (the
International Republican Institute) and IFES (the
International Foundation for Electoral Systems). The
Ambassador also reminded Kocharian that the Embassy had
frequently gone on the record saying that Armenia must build
and perfect its democracy through hard work within the law,
not resorting to "revolution," and that all elements of the
USG were in accord on this. Kocharian complained that the
opposition constantly stated, and seemed to believe, that
NDI's "support for revolution" was a subtext of U.S. policy
here. To this, the Ambassador responded that in his contacts
with the opposition, he had made it very clear that the USG
was not seeking to foment revolution in Armenia.


6. (S) The Ambassador also mentioned that for FY 2006, it
appeared that Armenia may fare less well on some of the
"Ruling Justly" MCA (Millennium Challenge Account) indicators
than in the two preceding years, and suggested that USAID
Director Phillips brief the President on this point in
greater detail. Kocharian was interested in this aspect, and
appeared to absorb this indication that Armenia may not be
performing as well as he had thought previously. The
Ambassador stated that an honest constitutional amendment
referendum, and clear GOAM moves toward free and fair
elections in 2007 and 2008 was what was needed in this
context. The Ambassador repeated that the United States
wanted to help Armenia achieve the goal of holding free and
fair elections in 2007, and urged Kocharian to identify
himself with our efforts. He noted that, on May 11,
Azerbaijani President Aliyev had issued a special decree on
free and fair elections, and that this might be something to
think about also for Armenia.

KAZAN
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7. (S) The Ambassador said readouts he had had on the Kazan
meeting indicated that Kocharian had shown some flexibility,
which had been noticed. Kocharian responded that he had
opted for a "waiting period," because he believed that
President Aliyev was currently assuming a more reasonable
negotiating position on Nagorno-Karabakh only because of the
November elections in Azerbaijan. Kocharian said it would be
necessary to wait until after those elections to see what
Aliyev's true intentions were. The Ambassador and Kocharian
agreed that there seemed indeed to be a window for possible
forward movement in 2006, before the Armenian political scene
started to heat up in the lead-up to the 2007 elections.

ASSISTANCE AND REFORMS
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8. (S) Finally, the Ambassador indicated that he and USAID
Director Phillips would be in Washington next week, for the
USATF meeting, and asked if Kocharian had any message to
convey to Washington. Kocharian said he would be meeting
with the Armenian delegation to the USATF before their
departure. He reiterated his commitment to reforms and
thanked the U.S. Government, and USAID in particular, for
their assistance over the years. Kocharian ended the meeting
by saying that he was not the kind of person who said things
in order to be liked; he was direct and frank, and always
appreciated it when one could have a candid and forthright
exchange of views.
EVANS