SEVEN OPPOSITION MPS END THEIR BOYCOTT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001657

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: SEVEN OPPOSITION MPS END THEIR BOYCOTT OF
PARLIAMENT AS AMENDMENT DISCUSSION CONTINUES

REF: YEREVAN 1593

Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) The seven MPs of the opposition National Unity Party
officially ended their 19-month boycott of parliament on
September 12. Their return comes as the National Assembly
continues discussion of a draft constitutional amendments
package (ref) and local media and observers devote more
attention than usual to Armenia's legislature. National
Unity Party leader Artashes Geghamian insisted that the
decision to return was in no way linked to the rumored
discussion of whether the GOAM can strip boycotting MPs of
their mandates after prolonged absences. He instead
described the move was instead a "response to requests from
his constituents." Geghamian told Emboffs that his party
will call on the GOAM to hold extraordinary presidential and
parliamentary elections following the referendum on the
constitutional amendments currently scheduled for November.

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JUSTICE BLOC: BOYCOTT A-LA-CARTE
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2. (C) A Justice Bloc spokesperson confirmed to us September
12 that its 14 MPs were also considering a return but had
opted instead to attend sessions that they considered
"important" while nominally maintaining their boycott for an
indefinite period. Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian had
made brief appearances in the National Assembly hall during
the (widely televised) second reading of the constitutional
amendments package in mid-August but has otherwise steered
clear of parliament since February 2003. (Note: Demirchian,
like many other opposition MPs, temporarily suspended his
boycott during the parliamentary hearings on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict earlier this year. End Note.)

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COMMENT: OPPOSITION FISSURES STILL CLEARER THAN GOALS
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3. (C) Geghamian's decision to return to the parliament has,
for the moment, offered a badly needed boost to his political
profile (after months of obscurity in the public eye). This
attention but could prove short-lived, however, unless the
media continue to cover parliamentary proceedings with
regularity. While international observers will welcome his
party's return to parliament, his track record in parliament
for constructive dialogue has been uneven. What is clear
from his public and private comments is that his party
continues to struggle to define its relationship with the
opposition Justice Bloc. The opposition's mantra about
Kocharian's "illegitimacy" still does not include a
well-defined opposition platform nor specific policy goals.
Some opposition leaders are now calling for an outright
boycott of the November referendum on the constitutional
amendments in hopes to unite opposition supporters, discredit
the Kocharian administration, and "force" a set of
extraordinary elections. With a large group of opposition
MPs now back in parliament, another group still boycotting,
and others yet undecided, we continue to predict that this
scenario is unlikely.
EVANS