ARMENIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PASSES CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001593

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PASSES CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENTS

REF: A) YEREVAN 1566 B) YEREVAN 1352 C) YEREVAN 1290

Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Armenian National Assembly passed the proposed
package of constitutional amendments on September 1,
triggering a series of procedural steps that include a final,
pro forma vote tentatively scheduled for mid- to
late-September, and a referendum in November. Opposition
leaders suspended their 18-month boycott of Parliament to
participate in the first days of the session, but walked out
before the final vote. In a series of monologues, opposition
members vowed to campaign against the amendments in advance
of the referendum. The extraordinary session heightened our
concerns that, despite our efforts, the Armenian political
elite -- both the governing coalition and the opposition --
is not yet ready to join forces in support of the improved
basic law. End Summary.

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PARLIAMENT MOVES AMENDMENTS PACKAGE TO THIRD READING
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2. (U) On September 1, the Armenian National Assembly
approved the proposed package of constitutional amendments
without significant changes to the Council of Europe (CoE)
Venice Commission-approved text. The package next moves to
the third reading in mid- to late-September and then to a
referendum in November. The amendments cleared the
131-member Armenian National Assembly with 98 votes. One
member, independent MP Manouk Gasparyan, abstained.

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REFERENDUM: OPPOSITION VOWS TO CAMPAIGN AGAINST AMENDMENTS
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3. (C) Opposition leaders suspended their 18-month boycott of
Parliament to participate in the August 29 through September
1 session (ref A),but walked out before the final vote.
Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian said the Kocharian
Administration's "penchant for clinging to power," and not
the current constitution, is Armenia's major obstacle to
democratization. "The constitution has no provision that
requires ballot box stuffing, election fraud and repression,"
he noted. National Unity Party leader Artashes Geghamyan
said that "disregard for the current constitution" has led to
"widespread popular distrust and discontent." Government
authorities, according to Demirchian and Geghamyan, have
repeatedly violated the existing constitution, which already
guarantees free elections, human rights, and the rule of law.
"What makes these amendments different?" Demirchian asked.
Both leaders said they would campaign against the amendments
before the referendum.

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AMENDMENTS ON THE WAY TO REFERENDUM
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4. (C) In a cryptic description of the legislative process,
National Assembly Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian told
members that drafters of the constitutional amendments may
need to make changes to the approved text "beyond technical
corrections" before the third reading of the amendments
package. Torosian's comments sparked protests from members,
including United Labor Party MP Grigor Ghoujeyan, who said he
believed that the ruling coalition would attempt to
substitute last-minute changes (in violation of parliamentary
rules) to drastically change the intent of the amendments.
Presidential Assistant Armen Haroutunyan urged opposition
members to "just be smart and use this chance, because it
doesn't happen often that a President acts to limit his own
powers."

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COMMENT: A LONG ROAD TO THE BALLOT BOX
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5. (C) The extraordinary session once again exacerbated
concerns that, despite our efforts, members of the Armenian
political elite -- both the governing coalition and the
opposition -- are still unwilling to compromise. Given
limited public support for a referendum and unrealistically
high voter participation thresholds, it is difficult to
envisage a scenario that produces the approximately 730,000
votes required to pass the referendum. In 2002, President
Kocharian mustered only 500,000 votes, amid serious voting
irregularities, to win his second term in office.
EVANS