Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05YEREVAN1531
2005-08-24 12:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

RAILROAD ISOLATION AN URGENT GOAM CONCERN

Tags:  PREL ECON ETRD TU GA AM AJ 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001531 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DAS BRYZA) AND EUR/SNEC (AMB. MANN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015
TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD TU GA AM AJ
SUBJECT: RAILROAD ISOLATION AN URGENT GOAM CONCERN

REF: A. BAKU 1226


B. YEREVAN 1494

C. 04 YEREVAN 2656

Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001531

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DAS BRYZA) AND EUR/SNEC (AMB. MANN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015
TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD TU GA AM AJ
SUBJECT: RAILROAD ISOLATION AN URGENT GOAM CONCERN

REF: A. BAKU 1226


B. YEREVAN 1494

C. 04 YEREVAN 2656

Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Top Armenian government officials continue to voice
their deep concern about plans to build a railroad which
would further isolate Armenia and exclude it from the process
of regional economic integration. This concern has been
echoed by the Armenian-American community and has found
resonance with several Members of Congress. We understand
that Washington is considering how best to respond to
Azerbaijan's request that the U.S. support this project (ref
A). While the GOAM's expressed concerns are -- for them --
important arguments against the rail by-pass, we believe that
this project would work against USG interests for a more
strategic reason: building this new line would remove an
important economic incentive for the states of the region to
resolve the N-K conflict. End Summary.


2. (C) FM Oskanian continues to raise Armenia's concern
about the proposed rail link from Turkey directly to Georgia.
Oskanian met with U.S. Democratic National Committee
Chairman Howard Dean on August 26 and focused on the proposed
rail line linking Azerbaijan to Turkey through Georgia as his
top concern. According to Dean and visiting Los Angeles City
Councilman Eric Garcetti (who met with Oskanian separately),
Oskanian said the re-activation of its Gyumri-Kars railroad
was key to the on-going talks between Armenia and Turkey.
Oskanian reportedly said that international financing of the
proposed rail link going around Armenia (ref B) would send
the wrong message regarding regional integration and would
remove a key incentive for establishing commercial links
between Armenia and Turkey and Azerbaijan.


3. (C) Oskanian's concern about the proposed rail link does
not come as a surprise. GOAM officials are raising the topic
with increased frequency with us and say it would only
exacerbate the economic pressure and displacement of the
blockade. During his August 16 meeting with Ambassador
Evans, Deputy Foreign Minister Kirakossian also raised the
issue, noting that the GOAM viewed it as another example of
Armenia's isolation in the region (ref C).


4. (C) In a January 13, 2005 INR report, analysts stated
that "Baku's evident willingness to provide cash to support
this project revives prospects for the new railroad and
threatens to nullify a big bargaining chip that Armenia has
used to try to lure Turkey away from its alliance with
Azerbaijan. Even more ominously for Yerevan, opening up this
new route would cause lasting economic damage to Armenia,
because it not only would bypass Armenia but also would open
an alternative rail route between Turkey and Russia." As we
reported in December (ref C),the Armenian authorities seem
to be bending over backward to make the re-opening of the
existing rail route attractive, including indicating a
readiness to forego transit fees on rail cargoes.


5. (C) Our primary concerns are focused more on the economic
incentive for the states of the region to remove this
disruption to normal transport routes. We believe that even
a partial lifting of the rail blockade would produce results
which could demonstrate the economic value of resolving this
long-standing conflict.
EVANS