LINES OF CONTACT--NEW GOAM TEAM TACKLING TURKEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001492

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/SE, INR, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU AM
SUBJECT: LINES OF CONTACT--NEW GOAM TEAM TACKLING TURKEY
ISSUE

Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Beyond the attention-grabbing meetings between GOAM
Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakossian and Turkish MFA
Deputy Undersecretary Ahmet Uzumcu (septel),the Armenians
point to a series of government-to-government channels that
provide opportunities for exchange with their estranged
neighbor. These mid and low-level contacts are admittedly
limited in their ability to influence the top policy makers.
Post believes, however, that they are important confidence
building measures and will lay the bureaucratic foundation
for real exchange once relations are established. Recent
staffing changes in the Armenian MFA created a new set of
Armenian bureaucrats handling the Turkey account. The five
key actors, and their roles in the Turkey-Armenia
rapprochment process, are part of a cadre of younger,
western-educated Turkey scholars in the GOAM who are upbeat
about the prospects for the bilateral relationship. Although
immediate prospects for Armenia-Turkey relations appear slim,
we continue to reach out to this set of GOAM bureaucrats to
underscore USG policy on the issue. End Summary.

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DEPUTY MINISTERS MAKE HEADLINES, OFFER COVER
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2. (C) While Foreign Minister Oskanian is still the principal
author of Turkey policy in the GOAM, the main point of
contact between the Governments of Armenia and Turkey remains
the relatively quiet, somewhat regular meetings at the Deputy
Minister level. Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakossian
has followed in the tradition of his predecessor and has
already met twice in Vienna with his Turkish counterpart
(septel). The most recent meeting appears to have done
little more than bring the talks back to the point where they
left off before the Armenians declared 2005 a "Genocide
Anniversary Year," but remains the most substantive talks
that follow a regular schedule.


3. (C) Kirakossian, formerly Armenia's Ambassador in
Washington (1999-2005),has told us he enjoys his assignment
to follow Turkish relations. He studied Turkish as an
undergraduate and still reads Turkish (although his speaking
abilities are limited). His publications on the events of
1914-1915 (mostly studies of foreign governments' reactions
at the time and compendia of supporting documents),at first
raised questions as to whether or not the Turks would
consider him a reasonable interlocutor in the process. A
former MFA employee has told us, however, that Kirakossian
has mellowed his stance toward Turkey and is exploiting his
"harmless, teddy bear" image to endear the Turks and make
headway on some of the toughest issues. Conversely, MFA
colleagues called former Deputy Minster Ruben Shugarian, now
Armenia's Ambassador to Rome, "the shrewd lawyer" (when he
covered Turkey issues) and hoped that he could out maneuver
the Turks to get them to drop their insistence that Armenia
recognize Turkey's border. Comment: The meetings of the
Deputy Foreign Ministers provide a valuable exchange of
information and much needed contact between the two
governments. However, meetings at this level also offer
Minister Oskanian and President Kocharian a measure of
political cover so that they can tackle issues that
nationalist forces within the GOAM prefer they not even raise
with the Turks. End comment.

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MFA MIDDLE EAST DEPARTMENT HOUSES TURKISH EXPERTS
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4. (C) Routine diplomatic work on the Turkey-Armenia
relationship passes through the MFA's Middle East Department.
The department, previously headed by rising MFA star Karen
Mirzoyan, covers a large number of countries (including
Armenia's neighbor Iran). The department has modestly
changed its focus over the past two years, however, to allow
for more engagement on Turkey. The ten-person department is
home to the MFA's small team of Turkish speakers. These
young, career diplomats have been trained in Europe and the
United States through programs like the Tavitian Foundation
program at Tufts University. The MFA requested that the
Diasporan-sponsored foundation fund Turkish language and area
studies for its 1999-2000 crop of diplomats to address a
shortage of fluent Turkish speakers. The first graduate of
the program, Anahit Harutunyan, was the Turkish Desk Officer
from 2001-2004. Currently in a bridge assignment in Buenos
Aires, she told us before departing that she expected to be
posted in Istanbul in short order to maximize her language
skills and support the ongoing contacts between the two
governments in the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Secretariat.


5. (C) The current head of the Middle East Department, Artiom
Aznaurian, is a Soviet-era diplomat who, according to MFA
Senior Advisor Salpi Ghazarian (Amcit),has the full trust of
Foreign Minister Oskanian. His previous assignments (mostly
in multilateral missions in Europe) included stints in
Armenia's mission to Brussels and the OSCE. Aznaurian is not
quick to offer information on Armenia's hush-hush diplomacy
with Ankara, but during meetings with the Embassy he has
displayed a firm grasp of the issues and how GOAM positions
are perceived both in and out of Turkey. He does not have
the charm of his charismatic predecessor or popularity among
his GOAM colleagues, but neither does he seem to have any
obvious foes within the MFA.


6. (C) 30-year-old Turkish Desk Officer Sahak Sargsyan is
perhaps most symbolic of the MFA's strategy that "if you
educate it, the relationship will come." Sargsyan was a
Muskie fellow in 2003 at USC (specializing in Turkish
studies) and was quickly recruited by the MFA to handle
documents and press coming out of Ankara. The MFA has
sponsored ongoing education for Sargsyan through Yerevan
State University and travel to Turkey. His colleagues -- in
and out of his department -- call him the best young Turkish
speaker in the country. Sargsyan has admitted to us that the
Turkey Desk is not always privy to discussions between
Oskanian and Kirakossian on meeting content or strategy with
the Turks. He claims, however, that more and more daily
research taskings mean that his department and office are
increasingly part of briefings and requests or meetings with
other GOAM line ministries.

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BSEC: GOOD REASON FOR AN OFFICIAL IN ISTANBUL
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7. (C) Armenia's representation at the Black Sea Economic
Cooperation (BSEC) Secretariat in Istanbul is the only
official GOAM office in Turkey. A small operation of four
GOAM diplomats and four permanent staff, the GOAM's BSEC
office offers sufficient political cover for Armenian
officials to easily interact with Turkish counterparts
without incurring the anger of nationalistic foes in Yerevan
(who would oppose or exploit even this kind of contact).
Karen Mirzoyan took over the position at BSEC in 2004 after
four years as head of the Middle East Department. Mirzoyan
told us he had developed an unusually close professional and
personal bond with his counterpart in Ankara and was
instrumental in drafting the document that served as the
basis for mid-level talks over the past two years. Mirzoyan
is a tough negotiator and has steered clear of controversy
within the bureaucratic ranks. Admired by most MFA
colleagues, he has a reputation as an optimist on the
Armenia-Turkey relationship.

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TBILISI: NEXUS OF NECESSITY
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8. (C) Tbilisi offers a neutral spot where Armenian
bureaucrats tell us they can actively seek out contacts with
Turkish counterparts. Before his recent transfer to
Istanbul, then MFA Middle East Department Chief Karen
Mirzoyan expressed his view that more tangible progress had
been made in bringing together GOAM and GOT bureaucrats in
Tbilisi than at other diplomatic posts or international
organizations. Armenia's current Ambassador in Tbilisi,
Georgi Khosroev, is less an expert on Turkey than his
predecessor, but has already been active on the issue. He
will be the GOAM's point person on consular issues and
administrative questions with the Turks in the absence of
diplomatic channels in Yerevan or Ankara. For example, the
letters passed between the two presidents earlier this year
regarding a joint government commission were channeled
through Khosroev, along with initial impressions about the
documents. The MFA has told us that it views the assignment
of Turkish Ambassador to Georgia, Dicle Kopuz (who had worked
closely with Mirzoyan in the past and seems to have a decent
personal relationswhip with Khosroev),as a positive sign
that the Turks want to keep the mid-level dialogue alive.

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COMMENT: NEW FACES -- NEW OPPORTUNITY?
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9. (C) The five key actors, and their role in the
Turkey-Armenia rapprochment process, are part of a cadre of
younger, western-educated Turkey scholars in the GOAM who are
upbeat about the prospects for the bilateral relationship.
While their influence is only limited, the new mid-level
bureacrats assigned to this issue offer a good opportunity
for us to reinforce our policy that diplomatic relations and
open borders will benefit the region. We will continue to
include desk officers and GOAM Ambassadors in our policy
discussions and outreach activities as well as applauding
high-level contact between the two governments.
EVANS