ARMENIA: GOOD PROGRESS ON DEFENSE ASSESSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001407

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/CACEN
DEFENSE FOR OSD (DASD MACDOUGALL)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2015
TAGS: PARM PGOV PREL MARR AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: GOOD PROGRESS ON DEFENSE ASSESSMENT


Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Although it took nearly two years to get Armenia to
agree to a defense assessment, now that it has begun, good
progress is being made. The second visit of U.S. experts
took place July 26-28. After consultations with Armenia's
general staff, the current draft accurately describes
Armenia's military structure, capabilities and needs, and
reflects a commitment by the Armenian military's senior
leadership to openness, transparency, and an expanded role in
international peacekeeping missions.


2. (C) Although the completion of this first phase brings
Armenia an important step closer to an accurate and
acceptable defense assessment, much remains to be done.
Following the September 16-17 Bilateral Defense Consultation
in Yerevan, the U.S. defense assessment team will draft an
implementation plan that will require compromises on both
sides. Despite Chief of General Staff General Mikhael
Harutiunyan's assurances to the contrary, the GOAM will
likely remain reluctant to agree on conclusions or to
implement recommendations that would significantly alter
Armenia's military system while the conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh remains unresolved. End Summary.

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BRIEFINGS YIELD CONSENSUS ON FIRST PHASE OF ASSESSMENT
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3. (C) In a series of meetings to validate preliminary data
collected during a U.S. defense assessment team visit to
Armenia May 3-6, team members led by Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC) Senior Analyst Donald
Snedeker (under the auspices of the Office of the Secretary
of Defense) reviewed major sections of the Armenia draft with
Chief of the General Staff General Mikhael Harutiunyan.
Harutiunyan and Deputy Minister of Defense Artur Aghabekyan
noted they were pleased with progress on the draft after
correcting some technical errors. Harutiunyan and Aghabekyan
said they were committed to completing the assessment and are
eager to receive the USG's conclusions and recommendations.

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DEFENSE OFFICIALS OPEN AND TRANSPARENT IN DISCUSSIONS
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4. (C) SAIC Senior Analyst Donald Snedeker said the U.S. team
was encouraged by the Armenian military leadership's
commitment to cooperation, openness and transparency, noting
that Chairman of Defense Mikhael Harutiunyan openly discussed
sensitive details about the Armenian military's structure,
capabilities and needs. During a July 26 meeting, Armenian
General Staff Head of Operations Brigadier General Chalyan
unexpectedly volunteered the specific unit numbers of two
previously undisclosed military intelligence units. When his
assistant advised him against it, Chalyan responded, "we need
to be transparent." In a separate meeting with the U.S. team
on July 28, Harutiunyan said, "I didn't understand it
initially, but now I believe that transparency in the defense
assessment is in Armenia's interest."

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DEFENSE OFFICIALS CALL FOR ADDITIONAL PEACEKEEPING ROLES
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5. (C) Harutiunyan said he hopes the defense assessment
identifies avenues for expanding Armenia's peacekeeping
force, with the goal of creating a full NATO-compatible
brigade. At every opportunity, Harutiunyan requested USG
assistance in lobbying active peacekeeping nations to accept
more Armenian peacekeeping contingents. Note: Since 2004,
Armenia has maintained a platoon of peacekeepers in Kosovo
where they operate within a Greek battalion, and since
January 2005, Armenia has also maintained a non-combatant
contingent in Iraq. End Note.

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COMMENT: PROGRESS ENCOURAGING, BUT PROCESS JUST BEGINNING
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6. (C) The GOAM will likely remain reluctant to implement
recommendations that would significantly alter Armenia's
military system while the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
remains unresolved. Harutiunyan told us he eagerly awaits
the U.S. assessment team's conclusions and recommendations,
but without having seen a draft it is difficult to speculate
on the political or military costs of implementation. While
the Armenian military leadership's increased openness and
transparency (however limited) are encouraging, the GOAM's
true commitment to the defense assessment may only become
apparent after the USG hands over the final defense
assessment in October.
GODFREY