Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05YEREVAN1352
2005-07-28 13:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

ARMENIA: A STEP FORWARD ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM:

Tags:  PREL PGOV AM 
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281307Z Jul 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001352 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: A STEP FORWARD ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM:
WHAT'S NEXT?

REF: A) YEREVAN 1290 B) STATE 139271

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

--------------------------
SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST
--------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001352

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: A STEP FORWARD ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM:
WHAT'S NEXT?

REF: A) YEREVAN 1290 B) STATE 139271

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

--------------
SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST
--------------


1. (C) On July 21, the Council of Europe's Venice Commission
issued a generally positive assessment of the GOAM's revised
draft constitutional amendments. While this brings Armenia
an important step closer to a November referendum, much
remains to be done. The Venice Commission hailed proposals
for new safeguards for human rights, new limits on the power
of the presidency and steps toward increasing the
independence of the judiciary. Legislative debate on these
draft amendments, the next hurdle in the process, begins
about a week before the National Assembly convenes in
extraordinary session for a second reading of the draft on
August 29. The rules which govern the legislative review
process do not guarantee that the National Assembly will
adopt the same revisions the Venice Commission approved. The
entire reform process is not transparent, and public interest
-- which we are trying to influence -- is still weak. We
seek Department concurrence to release a press statement
(para 8) that stresses our support for a transparent process
as well as encourages opposition and public participation
while preserving the intent of the revisions. End Summary
and Action Request.

--------------
NEW DRAFT CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
--------------


2. (C) While the amendments as currently drafted are far from
perfect, they represent a significant improvement over
previous drafts. Specific changes include:

- The President may no longer dismiss the Prime Minister
without a vote of no-confidence by the parliament;
- While the President still nominates the Prime Minister, his
candidate must be supported by a majority in the parliament;
- Half of the members of the National Commission on Radio and
TV will be appointed by the parliament;
- the independence of the Judicial Council is increased,
lessening the direct influence of the President on
appointments and dismissals of judges;
- the Mayor of Yerevan (where a third of all Armenian
citizens reside) will become an elected position (although

this election may be indirect).

--------------
VENICE COMMISSION THUMBS UP
--------------


3. (C) The July 21 comments of the Venice Commission were
made public in Yerevan on July 25. The conclusions of the
Commission remain in draft until confirmed by the
rapporteurs, but the local Council of Europe representative
said that they expect no changes. The key conclusion of the
Commission was that the amendments "represent an undoubted
improvement as compared to earlier drafts ... their adoption
in the second reading and subsequently a successful
constitutional referendum on the basis of this text would
constitute a good basis for ensuring the compliance of the
Armenian Constitution with the European standards ..." The
commission called for an open and transparent discussion with
the opposition and civil society in order that "the broadest
political consensus be found."


4. (C) In a July 26 meeting with the CDA, Council of Europe
(CoE) Special Representative in Armenia Bojana Urumova said
that Venice Commission members were "quite pleased" with the
GOAM revisions, noting that the coalition drafters, led by
Justice Minister David Harutyunyan and prominent opposition
figure and constitutional lawyer Vartan Pogosyan, had
incorporated virtually all of the Venice Commission
recommendations into the revised amendments. Urumova said
that the next challenge -- National Assembly approval of the
draft without significant changes -- will again test the
government's commitment to reform. The National Assembly
will meet on August 29 for the second reading of the draft
constitutional amendments. Barring extraordinary
circumstances, this will be the final opportunity for
legislators to incorporate the recommended revisions.

-------------- --------------
SOME IN OPPOSITION MAY BE CREEPING TOWARD DISCUSSIONS
-------------- --------------

5. (C) Press reports of diverging opinions among Armenia's
main opposition parties about the amendment process track our
private conversations with government and opposition leaders.
Minister of Justice David Harutyunyan told the CDA that he
believed "it's not too late to engage some members of the
opposition." Republic Party leader Aram Sargsyan said,
however, that his party "has not and will not participate in
any discussion of any version of the amendments." Opposition
National Unity Party leader Artashes Geghamyan, who said his
party's position would depend on the Venice Commission
opinion, has not announced a decision on participating in
discussions. Justice Party leader Shavarsh Kocharyan told us
his party will wait to see how the revisions play out in
National Assembly committee meetings before the second
reading. Kocharyan has backed away from public threats to
keep his party out of the reform debate. According to Vartan
Pogosyan, Kocharyan has started work on draft Justice Party
recommendations he intends to submit when the National
Assembly meets in late August.

--------------
THE ROAD AHEAD: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, REFERENDUM
--------------


6. (C) Opposition lawyer and constitutional law expert Vartan
Pogosyan told us that, because the National Assembly is in
recess, he believed the chairman of the ad hoc European
Integration Commission Tigran Torosyan would be unable to
gather commission members before August 22. The ad hoc
commission, which includes Justice Minister David Harutyunyan
and opposition Justice Party leader Shavarsh Kocharyan,
oversees the National Assembly's constitutional amendment
process and will have about a week to debate and amend the
current draft before presenting recommendations to the full
assembly on August 29. Council of Europe (CoE) Special
Representative Bojana Urumova told us that Venice Commission
Secretary Gianni Buquicchio planned to attend the National

SIPDIS
Assembly sessions. Buquicchio's presence, she hoped, would
deter legislators from exploiting the amendment process to
derail the upcoming referendum.

-------------- --------------
COMMENT: PROCESS JUST BEGINNING, MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO FAIL
-------------- --------------


7. (C) In addition to limited public support for a referendum
and unrealistically high voter participation thresholds
(reftels),the GOAM faces the immediate challenges of getting
a "clean" bill through the National Assembly that can also
pass a referendum. Despite the challenges, we believe strong
USG support for a transparent process that preserves the
intent of the Venice Commission revisions will aid efforts to
bring the amendments to referendum. We appreciate the
statement made at the July 22 Permanent Council Meeting in
Vienna (ref B) toward this end. We also believe that public
opinion will play a vital role in the ultimate success or
failure of the constitutional reforms. We therefore propose
the following draft press statement.

--------------
DRAFT EMBASSY PRESS STATEMENT
--------------


8. (U) Begin text of draft Embassy statement:

The United States welcomes the agreement by the Venice
Commission of the Council of Europe to the amendments to the
constitution and looks forward to their adoption at the
November national referendum.

We continue to support the efforts of the Venice Commission
and share the view that the revised draft constitutional
amendments represent a step forward. We applaud the
Government's progress toward democratic and constitutional
reforms.

The process, however, is far from over.

We hope that the Government takes the appropriate steps to
open the discussion to the public and gain the consensus
necessary to ultimately pass a referendum.

When the National Assembly meets in August, we hope
legislators will take seriously the Council of Europe's
recommendations, and that government and opposition parties
will engage in constructive debate to successfully bring
meaningful constitutional reforms to a referendum in
November.

End text of proposed Embassy statement.
GODFREY