YEREVAN DASHNAKS DOWNPLAY DISAPPOINTMENT IN N-K

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001097

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: YEREVAN DASHNAKS DOWNPLAY DISAPPOINTMENT IN N-K
BALLOTING

REF: YEREVAN 1054

Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4(b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Local representatives of the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (ARF - "Dashnaksutyun") have been downplaying the
results of the June 19 balloting in Nagorno-Karabakh in which
their ARF/Movement 88 alliance (who many predicted would fare
best in the election - reftel) won only three seats in the
local "parliament." While awaiting the final results from
the Central Election Commission, journalists and observers
praised the balloting to the Armenian press as generally fair
and transparent, Stepanakert-based ARF representatives,
however, are reportedly compiling a list of purported
violations and the use of "administrative resources" by
government officials to unfairly skew the election results in
favor of the ruling parties (who captured approximately 64
percent of the votes cast). Despite early threats that they
might decline their three seats in protest, ARF
representatives told us -- through their local counterparts
-- that they would not publicly protest the elections as it
might "unnecessarily threaten N-K security." End Summary.

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YEREVAN DASHNAKS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM N-K RESULTS
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2. (C) Local representatives of the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (ARF - "Dashnaksutyun") have been downplaying the
results of the June 19 balloting in Nagorno-Karabakh in which
their ARF-Movement 88 alliance won only three seats in the
parliament. A preliminary report published by the Central
Election Commission stated that the ARF/Movement 88 coalition
took 24.4 percent of the proportional vote. Giro Manoyan,
Director of the ARF International Bureau, contradicted
earlier statements and went to great lengths to portray the
Armenia and N-K arms of the organizations as "unrelated" in
terms of levels of popular support. He told us on June 22
that the balloting in Nagorno-Karabakh had "no bearing on the
ARF's political standing in Armenia." ARF leaders made
similar comments during press conferences on June 20 and 21
and steered clear of discussion of the purported electoral
violations that N-K ARF leaders cited earlier over the
weekend.

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OBSERVERS GIVE "ELECTION" A PASSING GRADE
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3. (C) Local NGOs and Diaspora-based organizations have
reported to us that observers of the June 19 balloting called
it transparent and well organized. Local press cited
comments by the British Helsinki Association, Russian State
Duma and Public International Law and Policy Group that the
balloting was orderly and that access to monitors and press
exceeded their expectations. Some estimates put the voter
turnout as high as 78 percent of eligible N-K voters.


4. (C) Louis Sell (a former U.S. Foreign Service Officer) was
among those who praised the election as "very correct." He
reportedly told some of our contacts in Yerevan that N-K
"President" Ghukassian had used rhetoric in advance of
election day that many considered "playing the national
security card" in favor of the ruling authorities. N-K
"Foreign Minister" Melkonian reportedly learned of this
perception, engaged foreign observers on their concerns and
arranged for a follow-up meeting with Ghukassian during which
he explained his comments to the observers.

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CLAIMS OF VIOLATIONS, USE OF ADMINISTRATIVE RESOURCES
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5. (SBU) ARF groups in Stepanakert made claims to
Yerevan-based press that "N-K authorities had used
administrative resources to skew the results in their favor."
The ARF's spokesperson told reporters that they were
compiling a list of violations. Immediately following the
CEC's release of the preliminary results, the ARF/Movement 88
said it would not stage public protests regarding the
balloting (saying it would unnecessarily "threaten N-K
security") but might instead decline their three seats in the
"parliament" as a sign of protest. Beyond the initial
announcement, however, there has been little mention of any
such action from either part of the coalition.

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COMMENT: EARLY INDICATOR OF DASHNAK DECLINE?
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6. (C) While Yerevan Dashnaks take measures to distance
themselves publicly from the ARF's defeat in N-K's
"election," the results came as a surprise to local GOAM
politicos and Embassies -- including us -- who predicted the
Dashnaks would flex their political muscle in N-K as a
precursor to national elections in Armenia in 2007 and 2008.
National Assembly Deputy Speaker Vahan Hovanissian, the most
likely ARF candidate for the next presidential bid in
Armenia, will likely continue to burnish his image in
national politics over the next 12 months and emphasize the
ARF's image as a member of the ruling coalition in Yerevan.
The June 19 balloting in N-K, however, suggests he will now
have to battle the perception that the ARF's reach may be
waning at the ballot box.
EVANS