THE KIWI VOTER: TRAPPED BETWEEN BOREDOM AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000695

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR D (FRITZ),EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: THE KIWI VOTER: TRAPPED BETWEEN BOREDOM AND
ANXIETY?

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Burnett,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Going in to the final week of New Zealand's general
election campaign, polls are fluctuating wildly: one had
National in a seven-point lead, while another had Labour
leading by nine points just two days later. The latest put
the major parties in a dead heat, with support for Labour at
40.6 and National at 40.1 While the quality of individual
polls may be at issue, it is clear this is the closest race
in years. Voters appear to be dithering, and as many as 20
percent remain undecided. Those that have made their choice
are often not their selected major parties' usual core
voters. The small parties are mostly dropping off the map, a
real change since MMP voting was initiated in 1996. Part of
voter indecision is due to the real differences in vision
that the two major parties represent. In general, though,
New Zealand's electorate seem tired of the Labour Government,
yet distrustful of what changes the opposition National party
would bring. In the remaining week, we expect focus to turn
more on the major parties' leadership, although voters will
also make decisions on bread and butter issues such as taxes,
racial identity, infrastructure, health, and education. End
Summary.


2. (C) Many New Zealand polls do not break down respondents
into a large number of categories. Interestingly, those that
do seem to indicate that this year's voters are not easily
categorized. Labour's traditional supporters are urban
residents, the intelligentsia, and lower and middle income
voters. National traditionally draws support from farmers,
business, and wealthier Kiwis. But during this campaign,
Labour is doing well in government-centered Wellington and in
Christchurch, but National is drawing support in more
cosmopolitan Auckland. Lower-income voters, traditional
Labourites, seem peeved at the Government's support for
students, and smaller middle-class families resent that
Labour's family support does not extend to them. Some blue
collar workers are tired of Labour's "nanny state" rules such
as those banning smoking in pubs. National's tax cut package
seemed to have drawn support from across income ranges, but
as of now some 44% of upper income earners have not said that
they will vote for National.

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What voters want
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3. (C) What do Kiwi voters want, and why are they being so
volatile in opinion polls?
To some extent, voters may be indecisive because there are
real choices on offer, as this year the major parties are
representing distinctly different visions of New Zealand.
For Labour, it's a country that takes care of its most
vulnerable through income redistribution and uses the law to
address past wrongs to Maori. Labour's New Zealand strives
to be is something of an antipodes version of Blair's "Cool
Britannia," with the Government publicly courting investment
in fashion, high-tech and the arts even as it continues to
flog New Zealand export mainstays such as agricultural goods.
Today's Labour, like Lange's 1980s Government, also takes
great pains to define a distinctive Kiwi identity on the
international stage, one that stands for multilateralism,
anti-nuclear proliferation, and a knee-jerk need to define
their country as independent from the United States,
Australia, and Britain.


4. (C) In contrast, the vision put forward by National, a
more conservative party now than in the recent past, is of a
New Zealand where equality is provided through a level
playing field, with a more limited role for government.
National is pledging to represent the interests of
"mainstream" New Zealanders, rather than those of minority
groups of any kind. Spending decisions should be made by
citizens themselves when possible, with lower taxes for all
rather than hand-outs for some. There should be fewer
barriers to doing business. While National still supports
universal health and strong schools, it wants to introduce
some market competition into the system, or at least
business-type evaluations to measure success. Whereas before
the campaign heated up Labour only subsidized pre-school care
in government-run centers, National has from the start
promised tax breaks for any-out-of- pocket child care. On
the international stage, National has been careful to claim
it will not radically change New Zealand's policies. To some
extent this is to protect the party from being vulnerable to
Labour's claims that National will make New Zealand a "deputy
sheriff" to the United States and others. But many in
National are actually committed internationalists, even
though most favor a stronger relationship with traditional
allies than is now the case.

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Roots of Indecision
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5. (C) OK, there's a choice, but voters have had weeks to
mull things over. Why are they being so slow to make up
their minds? Our sense of the zeitgeist is this: For some
time now, the Government has not recognized that people are
feeling less well off than before. After putting up with a
string of Labour missteps and a government long seen as
arrogant and out of touch with the mainstream, voters have
finally begun to tire of the Prime Minister and other Labour
officials. The ill-fated May budget was the likely catalyst,
but voters had already been primed by opposition parties to
take a new look at government policies they'd earlier been
content to live with, and government attitudes they had
previously taken in stride. The familiar now looks
tarnished.


6. (C) Yet National's platform offers the anxieties of the
unknown. Will there really be enough money left after tax
cuts for schools, health, and pensions? Although many Kiwis
respond to National's call for an end to special treatment
for Maori, will that create civil unrest? What will happen
to the unique New Zealand identity? There is also a real
question about whether National's senior members are ready to
rule. Every week seems to bring on a new gaffe. This week,
it is National leader Don Brash's belated admission that he
had talked with an allegedly apolitical religious sect and
endorsed their idea of a pamphlets campaign against Labour
and the Greens. So far, the public has not been turned off
by these mistakes. But over time the unclear responses may
raise questions on National's credibility, and the inept
handling of crises may not appeal to voters who want to know
their PM can handle the pressures of running the country and
meeting with foreign leaders.


7. (C) These questions will be weighing on voters minds in
the remaining days of the campaign. Here are some of the
major issues in play as they make their choices:

Taxes: As we've reported earlier, this is National's trump
card and Labour's biggest vulnerability. National's website
explaining its plan got over a million hits within days.
Labour's extended "Working for Families" income support
leaves out large numbers of voters and has not done the
trick. Of all issues, this is the one that could draw to
National working- and middle-class voters who have more
recently voted Labour. Labour's efforts to paint the cuts as
fiscally irresponsible have run into trouble, given that the
plan is the work of a former central banker (Brash) and
former successful international banker (National finance
spokesman John Key). Labour's recent "discovery" of extra
money in tax revenues that it is using for more spending
promises has further weakened its ability to criticize the
tax cuts, although some voters are questioning how National
will finance its plan. Many voters have also criticized
Labour for not reducing oil taxes in light of rising world
prices.

Race/National identity: National leader Don Brash's famous
2004 Orewa speech put this issue on the map and made the
party a political contender once more. In a recent speech
dubbed "Orewa II," Brash repeated his pledge to do away with
Maori electoral seats and said he would also abolish separate
ministries dealing with Maori issues. National's position
sits well with especially older white New Zealanders and (we
suspect) the country's sizable immigrant and Pacific Islander
communities. (Auckland is the largest Polynesian city in the
world.) Even a visiting U.S. Democratic Senator remarked to
us that "the Maori seem to expect a lot." But many Kiwis are
proud of their country's fair treatment of its indigenous
people, and many believe Maori deserve special treatment
because preservation of Maori culture is essential to
maintaining the uniquely "New Zealand" identity. Air New
Zealand makes use of the koru (fern) in its designs, the New
Zealand rugby team the All Blacks starts each game with a
haka (war chant) and the average New Zealander knows a fair
number of Maori words. (Maori is also the second official
language here.)

Health: This is not the pressing issue it has been in the
past, but remains important. Government spending on health
now takes up about 20 percent of the budget. The Government
has boosted healthcare providers' salaries, and by 2007 will
give subsidized care to all New Zealanders. National says
more people than ever are waiting for elective surgery
despite the extra spending, but this is one of the areas in
which their party is the most vulnerable. Many people do
not believe that enough money will be left in the pot after
tax cuts to meet the country's burgeoning health costs. In
recognition of this, National has pledged to maintain
Labour's 2005-6 funding for health, although it has also
called for cost reductions through public-private
partnerships, less bureaucracy, and a requirement for
government funding to be allocated based on quality and price
of the services provided.
Education: The Government has seen a number of scandals in
this area, from botched national exams to accusations that
the deputy education minister engaged in corporal punishment
while a teacher. National has pledged more national
standards and more meaningful reports for students that will
really measure progress. But here, too, voters are wary of
National's claims that there will be enough to maintain
education after tax cuts. National's pledge to allow Kiwis
who remain in the country to take tax deductions for interest
on student loans looks stingy compared to Labour's offer to
forgive the interest completely, perhaps boosting skeptics'
suspicions.

Environment: Voters who regard the environment as a key
election issue are most likely to vote for the Greens or
Labour. National has said it will withdraw New Zealand from
the Kyoto agreement, a stance which is most likely to appeal
to the business and farm vote. Labour insists it remains
committed to Kyoto, but it's miscalculations of what
adherence to the agreement will cost has been an
embarrassment and prevents the Government from playing up
environment as an issue to all but the most ardent
conservationists. (FYI: The Government had estimated it
would make a profit from emissions trading, but has since
admitted it will instead have to pay about NZD 1 billion.)

Infrastructure/Local Issues: In addition to national issues,
voters will be looking at how the parties will handle issues
of importance to local communities. High on the list are
infrastructure issues such as transport, particularly in
major cities Auckland and Wellington which account for almost
half the country's population. National has offered to
increase spending to build roads and to cut red tape by
amending the country's Resource Management Act, which among
other things provides for government financial assistance to
a project's opponents. National also says it will change the
Land Transport Management Act, which it believes is too
deferential to the views of local Maori. Labour says it has
spent large sums on roads -- NZD 1.3 billion this fiscal
year. Labour also favors more support for public transport,
and claims government assistance has increased Auckland's
regional transport services by 40% at peak times.

"Missing" Kiwis: There are between one half and one million
expatriate New Zealanders, representing up to 20% of the
total population. While historically many Kiwis have had an
"overseas experience" by living and working abroad for a few
years as young adults, there is some indication that fewer of
them are returning home. National claims New Zealand's high
rate of taxation helps drive young, hard-working Kiwis away,
particularly the over 350,000 who live in Australia. Labour
points out that income tax rates in Australia are barely
lower than here, and that even more people will leave if
National is allowed to ruin New Zealanders' relaxed work/life
balance.

Leadership: More and more, Kiwis are remarking that this is
the most "presidential" election campaign they have ever
seen. It is likely that many undecided voters will make
their decision on the 17th based whether they would rather
see Helen Clark or Don Brash as Prime Minister. We will
report septel on the two candidates and their appeal to
voters (or lack thereof).
Burnett