THOUGH ON THE FRINGE, NEW ZEALAND'S GREENS MAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000692

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR D (FRITZ),EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: THOUGH ON THE FRINGE, NEW ZEALAND'S GREENS MAY
PLAY ROLE IN NEXT GOVERNMENT

REF: WELLINGTON 70

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David R. Burnett,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Strongly identified with environmental protectionism,
New Zealand's Green Party also represents a number of other
small constituencies, ranging from those who favor legalizing
marijuana to those concerned with improving nutrition in
school lunches. Typically favored by younger New Zealanders
and women, the Greens lost support early in this campaign
when they tried to attract a broader range of supporters by
campaigning for "social justice.". The Party only regained
the 5% threshold in the polls after its leaders pledged to
back a coalition with Labour and PM Clark made a show of
campaigning with Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons (latest
polls put it as high as 7%). Labour's decision to back the
Greens assures it a needed coalition partner - it can't win
without at least one -- but also risks painting the
Government as more radical than it has tried to appear thus
far. It may also have limited the Government's coalition
options with United Future, though a Parliamentary voting
arrangement may still be possible. A Labour-Green coalition
may slow, but will not not rule out, our pursuit of a more
structured relationship with a reelected Labour Government.
PM Clark is very unlikely to give the Greens a major foreign
policy and security role. She will also keep them well away
from intelligence issues. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Over the last 30 years, the Green movement has so
influenced New Zealand that environmental themes now are
imbedded in the New Zealand identity and are favored by major
and minority parties alike. Much of the public nevertheless
views the political wing of the Green movement, the Green
Party, with suspicion. They find the party's policies too
extreme and unwieldy, and there is something about the "eat
your vegetables - NOW" quality about Green pronouncements
that many find unpalatable. The Greens' 1999-02 involvement
in government resulted in a mixed report card.

Core themes bind Green constituencies
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3. (SBU) Nonetheless, the party has strong support from its
core constituents, an assortment of smaller interests each
defending causes central to the Greens' political beliefs:
environmentalism and conservation, safe food (including no
genetic modification),youth, left-wing economics,
legalization of cannabis, nonviolence and peace. The Greens
say they want a "fairer society," including government
assistance to children and the poor. They led parliamentary
protests against U.S. and coalition military operations in
both Afghanistan and Iraq. The Greens set a very low
yardstick for identifying human rights abuse, which they
often use in making their case for fair trade.


4. (SBU) The Greens favor the use of government regulation to
change people's behavior. They view the market and its
instruments with suspicion. The Greens therefore are not
favored by an emerging strain of environmentally-oriented
voters who remain convinced about the need to address
pollution, biodiversity and climate change and other areas of
Green concern, yet are increasingly uncertain about alarmist
proclamations and the use of heavy handed rules.


5. (SBU) In fact, some voters see the Greens' unrelenting
stance on its pet issues as perilously close to extremism.
That perception, and the view that the party is increasingly
out of touch with the electorate, has stymied its attempts at
broader appeal. Last year, for example, the Anarchist
movement declared Greens co-leader Rod McDonald an enemy of
the poor when he called on New Zealanders to stop buying
fuel-inefficient, used cars from Japan.


6. (C) Many Kiwis nevertheless admire Fitzsimons' deliberate
lack of spin: her straight- shooting approach has won her
points in leadership debates and on the campaign trail. She
has learned from the last election campaign, when she
appeared angry most of the time.

On-and-off relationship with Labour
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7. (SBU) In the 1999-02 Labour Government, the Greens worked
in cooperation with the Labour-led Governing coalition on
certain issues, in return for limited budget input. Three
years ago, the Greens -- mistakenly believing that Labour
would require their support to form a government -- took an
intransigent line against genetic modification that ended up
costing both itself and Labour votes. United Future picked up
Green-fearing votes and became Labour's choice as its primary
partner in a coalition government. The Greens managed to
increase their strength in Parliament and agreed to support
the Government on certain issues, however.


8. (SBU) In this year's campaign, the Greens have publicly
and unequivocally declared Labour is the only party with
which they will enter into a post-election arrangement. Even
before NZ First leader Winston Peters announced he would
avoid a formal coalition with either major party, Labour
decided its best prospect would be to back a coalition with
the Greens, the only minor party other than NZ First likely
to gain at least 5% of the party vote. In an apparent effort
to ensure that the Greens finish above the threshold (they
have little chance of winning a constituency seat),Labour
has endorsed a coalition with the Greens and the PM has on
occasion hit the campaign trail with Green Party co-leader
Jeanette Fitzsimons. This has likely limited the possibility
of a formal coalition arrangement with the more centrist
United Future, whose leader Peter Dunne has openly ruled out
any role in a Government that formally includes the Greens.
Labour may have to settle for a more complicated voting
agreement with Dunne instead.

Leveraging influence in a new Labour government
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9. (SBU) If Labour wins a third term and turns to the Greens
as its main coalition partner for a majority hold on
government, the Green leadership likely would insist on
cabinet posts or at least a support agreement that delivers
much more than their 1999 and 2002 arrangements. Recent media
reports suggest that the party is interested in running the
transportation portfolio. This interest has caused concern
among other parties, which contend that the Greens' policy of
increasing tax on diesel fuel would raise freight charges and
Green opposition to developing over-burdened road networks
would hurt the country's regional economies. Actually,
because the Greens have already made it clear they will not
work for National, and because National wouldn't want to work
with them in any case, their negotiating position is likely
to be limited and they may be assigned a relatively minor
cabinet slot.

Foreign policy: can't see the forest for the trees
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10. (SBU) In July, before announcing itself in coalition with
Labour, the Greens attempted to force the Government to stop
the national cricket team from departing for a tour of
Zimbabwe. They brought to New Zealand a prominent Zimbabwean
activist who spoke against the Mugabe regime's extremist
domestic policies. Last month, trying to fuel debate over
the National Party's foreign policy, the Greens brought to
New Zealand a former Australian intelligence official who
quit his job in opposition to the Iraq war. Andrew Wilkie,
the former Australian Defence Force lieutenant colonel, told
an audience of Kiwis that the New Zealand government's
opposition to the invasion of Iraq and the country's
anti-nuclear policy keep New Zealand off the list of top
terrorist targets.


11. (C) Neither visitor produced significant political gains
for the Greens: the Wilkie visit barely registered in the
media and Labour grabbed most of the airtime on the cricket
issue. Both visits demonstrate the Greens' approach to
foreign affairs: specific issues reflective of their
ideology, rather than a unifying, concrete foreign policy
vision. Labour MPs have quietly told us they regard the
Green's foreign affairs spokesman, Keith Locke, as extreme
and impractical. The Greens have also in the past
embarrassed Labour by criticizing the Government's trade
talks and other approaches to China. In coalition, it is
very unlikely PM Clark would allow the Greens any real
foreign policy or security role, and their lack of
negotiating leverage will prevent them from insisting on one.
In her role as Minister in Charge of the NZ Intelligence
Service, Clark has kept a tight control on intelligence
issues, allowing few even within her cabinet to see reports.
She will undoubtedly keep any Green cabinet official in the
dark about intelligence matters.

Political Management
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12. Unlike other minor parties, the Greens' strength resides
in the commitment to the cause rather than the profile of any
one leader. The party strives to make decisions by consensus,
and this is reflected in its co-leadership arrangement with
Jeannette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald at the helm. One way of
explaining how this leadership arrangement functions is to
think of the party as, ironically, a corporation. Fitzsimons'
role is akin to chairman of the board - the public face of
the party and movement. Donald is more like a managing
director - overseeing the day-to-day operations at
Parliament. The Embassy has in recent months sought to build
bridges with the Greens in order to better explain our
policies to them, and Donald in particular has responded
warmly to these efforts.


13. Jeanette Fitzsimons has the leadership's strongest
environmental roots. Despite having no formal training or
background in any field of science, Fitzsimons was a lecturer
in environmental studies at Auckland University before being
elected to Parliament. She also worked as an environmental
consultant and was highly active in various environmental
organizations. Fitzsimons' first entry into politics was as
an unsuccessful candidate of the Values Party, the Greens'
political forbearer. When that party merged with a number of
other groups to form the modern Green Party, Fitzsimons
became an active member of the new organization. When the
Green Party joined with several other left-wing parties to
form the Alliance, Fitzsimons became co-deputy. In 1995, she
became co-leader of the Green Party (which remained within
the Alliance). In the 1996 election, Fitzsimmons entered
Parliament on the Alliance list. The Greens contested the
1999 election as an independent party, with Fitzsimons and
Rod Donald at the helm. Fitzsimons and her husband manage an
organic farm.


14. Rod Donald is a longstanding environmentalist who
belonged to the Values Party from 1974 to 1979. He was first
elected to Parliament in the 1996 election as an Alliance
list MP. In 1999, he won election as number two on the
Greens' party list. He retained his seat in the 2002
election. For many years, Donald has had a special interest
in electoral reform. From 1989 to 1993, he served as
spokesperson for the Electoral Reform Coalition, the campaign
that led to the introduction of MMP.
Burnett