NEW ZEALAND OPPOSITION LEADER POSITIONS HIMSELF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000171

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/ANP
NSC FOR JONES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL MNUC NZ
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND OPPOSITION LEADER POSITIONS HIMSELF
FOR 2005 ELECTIONS

REF: WELLINGTON 78

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION DAVID R. BURNETT, FOR REASONS 1.
4(B,D)


1. Summary. Opposition National Party leader Don Brash is
entering the 2005 election season with a sense of a cautious
optimism about his party's chances of regaining power. While
concerned about recent setbacks that have seen him labeled
"anti-women" and "anti-Maori," Brash regards the Labour
Government's weakness in addressing scandals in the education
sector as a sign of vulnerability ready to be exploited.
Foreign affairs, including discussion of the GoNZ's
anti-nuclear legislation, are not areas he believes either
major party will pursue in the campaign. Recently Brash has
faced criticism about his leadership style from those both
in and outside of his party, making it clear that more than
one party member is nipping at his heels for the chance to
take over as leader. Even if National wins the election,
Brash will face an uphill battle in forming an effective
government, as his choice of coalition partners is small and
shrinking. Whether or not his party wins, the election will
test Brash's abilities as a leader. End summary.

Getting the Message Out ) Scandals Aside
--------------


2. (U) PolCouns and Poloff met with Opposition National Party
leader Don Brash and National party strategy advisor Peter
Keenan February 14. Brash began the meeting by admitting
that it was incredibly hard while in Opposition to set the
election agenda, especially when the economy is doing so
well. He added that National will continue in the coming
year to push its key policy planks )- law & order, social
welfare reform, Treaty issues and education -- which are
currently enjoying the spotlight. Despite recent setbacks,
including the demotion of welfare spokeswoman Katherine Rich,
which overshadowed Brash's major policy announcement on
welfare on January 25 (reftel,) Brash was cautiously
optimistic about his Party's overall position in the build-up
to the 2005 election, widely projected for September. While
his welfare speech was generally well-received, and was well
covered by the media, Brash laughingly noted that a
photograph of him seated between conservative Christian
leader Brian Tamaki and Maori activist Tame Iti at NZ's
national Waitangi Day celebrations provided more press than
his speech.


3. (C) Brash was very forthright on recent accusations that
he was anti-women, noting that his demotion of Katherine Rich
from the welfare portfolio after she publicly refused to
support the party's position probably gained him votes among
men, who saw it as the move of a strong leader, but lost him
votes among women, who see a front bench devoid of females.
He noted that it was "unfortunate" that women's issues were
being addressed in the manner the media had chosen. He
compared it to criticisms last year after his January 2004
speech to the Orewa Rotary Club against racial preference
that National was anti-Maori. Brash reiterated that National
had the best policies for Maori ) noting that five of the
nine National candidates announced on February 13 to stand in
Auckland in the upcoming election were Maori.

A Lost Chance, An Isolated Island Nation
--------------


4. (C) Brash agreed with our assessment that foreign policy
was not likely to figure as an election issue, although free
trade agreements would likely be a recurrent topic.
National's primary foreign policy goal, he said, was to
rebuild the relationship with Australia, which could only
truly be done by building a better relationship with the U.S.
Brash commented that National should have overturned the
nuclear ban when it had the chance in 1992 with the release
of the Somers Report, but that his party would be unable to
move on the issue in the build-up to this election. In part
this was due to the infamous incident in which Brash was
misquoted as having told Senator Nichols that were he Prime
Minister the ban would be "gone by lunchtime," which Labour
continues to use against him to this day. (In her recent
State of the Country address to Parliament, PM Clark said
that under her government, NZ's "status as nuclear free would
not be gone by lunchtime.") But Brash said time would also be
needed to lay groundwork before the public was ready to
discuss the issue. He reiterated his interest in approaching
the issue after a National Government was safely in control
of Parliament. (Note: A National Party media advisor
indicated to Poloff that the nuclear ban issue would most
likely be addressed in a second National Party term -- 2008
at the earliest.) On New Zealand's FTA negotiations with
China, Brash said that National is probably in agreement with
Labour on moving forward, and he visited Beijing last year to
make that well known to Chinese leadership.


5. (C) Brash added that National is committed to increasing
spending on defense, which he noted had been low not only
during Labour's tenure, but in the mid-90s under the previous
National government. However, he has been advised by
military experts that any defense spending increase must be
done incrementally, as any equipment purchases must be
matched with personnel increases and a long training
pipeline. He therefore does not have definite plans for
either materiel procurement or recruitment increases.
(Comment: This strategy also allows Brash to avoid his party
being accused of being war-mongering, but it puts him in an
odd position vis a vis the Labour government, which claims to
be increasing military spending. End Comment.)

The Cheese Stands Alone
--------------


6. (C) Discussing possible future coalition partners, Brash's
optimism over election results was replaced with a far more
negative outlook. While almost dismissive of partnering with
ACT (which has been polling at less than 2 percent and may
disappear off of the political radar, and whose leader
recently criticized Brash in the media),he was optimistic
about the chances of working with Peter Dunne's centrist
United Future Party. Brash bluntly dismissed the possibility
of allying with Winston Peters, whose NZ First Party is
polling well, and may be the decisive factor in either a
National or Labour-led government Brash noted that many in
his caucus are completely against working with Peters again
after Peters served disastrously as Deputy PM under a
National Government in 1996. Personally, said Brash, he
distrusts Peters, who he says lacks both a framework and an
ideology, with policies that merely reacted to whichever way
the wind blows.


7. (C) Comment: Brash is treading a narrow path in this
election year, balancing attacks against the government with
defending his party from recurrent internal conflicts. He
freely admits that his party, who remain underdogs after
their pitiful result in the 2002 election, faces an uphill
battle as Labour uses its substantial financial surplus and
the benefits of strong economic conditions to sway voters to
the status quo. But Brash seems to us to be gaining
confidence, both in his ability to hold his party together
and in his efforts to gain public support. He may be drawing
strength from his frequent under-the-radar trips to court
voters around the country, although we have seen no specific
evidence of this. He may also be heartened by a recent bump
in the polls, although he claimed to us it was too early to
consider the gain as significant. There is no doubt,
however, that members of Brash's caucus have been very
successful recently in drawing media attention to areas of
government weakness, such as the recent debacle over
scholarship exams. As the saying goes, the election may not
be his to win, but Labour's to lose.
Swindells