POLAND'S CIVIC PLATFORM -- THE JILTED BRIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 004045

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: POLAND'S CIVIC PLATFORM -- THE JILTED BRIDE
PONDERS THE FUTURE

REF: WARSAW 4020

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Poland's leading opposition party, the
Civic Platform (PO),hopes to cast itself as the only viable
political alternative to the ruling Law and Justice Party
(PiS),although its sudden metamorphosis from would-be
coalition leader to outspoken critic has led some Poles,
including those who supported PO, to question where the party
is headed. Party leaders admit that after preparing to
govern for much of the last two years, they were stunned by
the election results and their subsequent rupture with PiS.
Rumors persist of an eventual split in the party, which PO
leaders vigorously deny. Whatever the real level of internal
division, the party faces a significant challenge in
broadening its electoral support. End Summary.

What Just Happened?
--------------


2. (C) PO remains popular, polling just behind PiS but well
ahead of other parties, despite twin defeats in the
parliamentary and presidential elections. PO officials,
including Secretary General Grzegorz Schetyna and Sejm deputy
Slawomir Rybicki, admit that their party spent much of the
last two years planning on governing Poland, and were stunned
to watch their dominant position erode under withering
attacks from their would-be coalition partner, PiS. Schetyna
told poloff on December 8 that a certain amount of soul
searching was to be expected, particularly after the
anticipated coalition with PiS failed to come together.
Rybicki was blunter, saying that PO was defeated by PiS's
distorted and inaccurate attacks.


3. (C) Feelings within PO toward PiS are varied -- Schetyna
for one said that eventually the parties would likely
gravitate anew to some kind of coalition -- particularly if
PiS officials risk early elections, and end up with similar
results to this fall's parliamentary round. "We are the
natural partners to one another," Schetyna told poloff.
Rybicki, who is a confidant of failed PO presidential
candidate Donald Tusk, had a somewhat more raw assessment of
PiS. "They were never interested in a coalition," Rybicki
asserted to poloff on December 8. Rybicki believes that PiS
always planned to go it alone, and is pursuing an agenda of
swallowing up support from right-wing and nationalist parties
(reftel),while continuing its efforts to cast PO as a party
of the left. "They will continue to try to force us to the
left, but it won't work," Rybicki told poloff. He said
further that the PO leadership was uniformly committed to
keeping the party together and providing a constructive,
centrist alternative to the government.

Will PO Stay Together?
--------------


4. (C) Whether to form an eventual coalition or to tough it
out in the opposition, PO will need to avoid splintering into
pieces, which is the common experience of Polish opposition
politics. PO's health expert, Sejm deputy Andrzej Sosnierz
promptly was expelled from PO on December 13 after he
predicted that PO would break apart. Schetnya and Rybicki
were both careful to say that the party is united, and
prepared for the next round of elections -- whether snap
elections called by PiS or the local elections scheduled for
next fall. This runs counter to rumors in Warsaw that
circulated as soon as the coalition talks failed, detailing a
bitter rivalry between party leaders Jan Rokita and Donald
Tusk, and speculating that Rokita will cut a deal to carry
his supporters over to PiS. While denying this, Rokita has
sent mixed signals. On December 10, Rokita announced a
lineup of PO officials who will serve as shadow ministers in
opposition to the PiS government. However, Rokita and Tusk
reportedly disagree on the composition of the shadow cabinet,
with Rokita preferring experts and Tusk preferring PO
deputies serving in the Sejm. Rokita has also not been shy
about criticizing fellow PO members, as he did December 11
when he suggested that Bronislaw Komorowski was uninformed
when speaking about the CIA rendition issue.


5. (C) Most of our contacts in PO doubt that the Kaczynski
brothers will risk early elections, and predict that the
current PiS honeymoon will be short-lived. They point to
LPR's and Samoobrona's current, diminished polling numbers
and believe both parties grudgingly will opt to support the
government because they have greater leverage now. PO
believes that the Marcinkiewicz government will limp along,
spending an increasing amount of political capital on
tethering its unofficial partners.


6. (C) If elections are called, PO remains the party favored
by urban and educated Poles. Before the parliamentary round,
one successful Sejm candidate confided in poloff that "anyone
who is educated in Poland" was a PO supporter. This kind of
collective party hubris fell flat with rural voters, who
delivered whopping majorities to PiS. And so far, we see
little to suggest that PO is reaching out to appeal to rural,
religious voters, although Schetnya did confirm press reports
that PO has talked with the Polish Peasant Party (PSL) about
possible cooperation in local elections. In the meantime,
they watch the parade of PiS politicians interviewed on
conservative Radio Maryja and hope that the Catholic Church
hierarchy will do more to clamp down on its leader, Father
Rydzyk. After taking an electoral beating by PiS on their
macro-economic policies, PO hopes to educate Polish farmers
that their more EU-friendly party will continue to deliver
benefits from Brussels. At this stage, this is far from
compelling.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) PO faces a hurdle in overcoming its liberal image and
gaining supporters beyond its core constituents, who
represent upwards of a third of the electorate. If PO is to
survive, it must find a more persuasive argument with
Catholic voters in the countryside who view themselves as the
losers in Poland's economic transformation, and regard PO as
something urban, separate and hostile to their values. End
Comment.
ASHE