LAW AND JUSTICE IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 004020

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: LAW AND JUSTICE IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT


Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Governing Law and Justice (PiS) officials
are pursuing a strategy of dividing and conquering right-wing
and nationalist Polish parties, and pondering whether to call
early elections -- perhaps as soon as early 2006 -- to
strengthen their position. The main opposition, PiS's
would-have-been coalition partner Civic Platform (PO),
remains in relative disarray, but continues to poll close to
PiS despite its reduced profile. PiS officials are moving
forward with their ambitious agenda, notably with plans to
reshape the Justice and Interior ministries. To proceed,
PiS will need the support of its unofficial partners,
Samoobrona (SO) and the League of Polish Families (LPR),the
very parties whose supporters it seeks to nab. End Summary.

PiS Enjoys a Governing Honeymoon
--------------


2. (C) Buoyed by recent polls showing strong support for the
new government, Law and Justice (PiS) officials are enjoying
a honeymoon of sorts with the Polish public, but are
cognizant that it may prove short-lived. PM Marcinkiewicz,
President-elect Lech Kaczynski and his twin brother, PiS
party chief and consummate power broker, Jaroslaw, are
wasting little time to consolidate their conservative base
and press ahead on a range of political proposals, including
the overhaul of the Justice Ministry, creation of an
anti-corruption czar, eliminating military courts and an
ambitious reorganization of the Interior Ministry, much of
which requires legislation. To proceed, PiS will need to
muster the necessary support from the fringe parties in the
Polish Sejm -- the Polish Peasants Party (PSL),Self Defense
(SO) and the League of Polish Families (LPR) -- the parties
which voted in favor of Marcinkiewicz's government. Recent
polls show conservative support shifting to PiS and away from
these smaller parties. SO's infamous populist leader,
Andrzej Lepper, has flipped neatly on a range of issues to
suggest that he was more in synch with PiS all along. LPR
chief Roman Giertych, who has seen a slide in public support,
is less quiescent, calling for the dismissal of Treasury
Minister Andrzej Mikosz and signaling opposition to the GOP's
economic program. It is impossible to predict how these or
the more centrist PO will vote on individual pieces of
legislation.

Elections Next Spring?
--------------


3. (C) Piotr Tutak, the Secretary of State in the PM's
Chancellery, and Adam Bielan, spokesman for the party, in
separate conversations with the DCM and poloffs confirmed
that PiS is actively continuing to try to siphon off voters
from LPR and SO, pursuing a big tent policy that will
consolidate their conservative voting base. Bielan admitted
that he was in a minority within the party that still
believed in an eventual coalition with PO -- presumably after
PiS shores up its fragile majority -- and speculated that it
might be dangerous to move PiS too far to the right. "It
will take years to return to the center," Bielan told poloff
on December 5. Tutak was much clearer in seeing PiS seeking
to establish itself as the conservative party in Poland.


4. (C) No one within PiS expects their unexpected allies in
SO and LPR to be too quiet for too long. To capitalize on
their relative strength, both Tutak and Bielan said that PiS
will call for early elections, almost surely within two
years, but perhaps as early as the spring. Tutak doubted
whether PiS would be in a position to win an outright
majority, but thought that it could come close. For their
part, SO and LPR may opt to support the government since
their reduced polling numbers point to failure in a possible
new electoral round.


5. (C) One scenario batted around in the press and mentioned
by Tutak would have President Kaczynski call early elections
this spring if the Sejm fails to pass a budget by February
15, an option provided under the Polish Constitution.
Although attractive from current poll numbers, this strategy
is not without risk. Many speculate that meager Polish
turnout for the last round of elections would fall even
further, both due to voter fatigue and a sense of distrust
from voters, who expected a coalition between PiS and PO.
Current poll figures suggest a similar result to the last
election, namely PiS and PO in rough equality, followed far
behind by a cluster of smaller parties. Such a result could
provide PiS and PO an opportunity to restart negotiations
over a possible coalition -- which some within PiS and PO
think likely, or leave PiS in the position of once again
depending on small parties to support a minority government.

Wooing Radio Maryja's Loyal Listeners
--------------


6. (C) PiS clearly is making an effort to supplant LPR as
the political darling of conservative Catholic Radio Maryja.
Its founder, Father Tadeusz Rydzyk, held a special mass for
7000 loyal listeners on December 7 to celebrate the radio
station's 14th anniversary of going on the air. Speaker of
the Sejm Marek Jurek was on hand, the latest in a regular
string of PiS officials to travel to Torun to be interviewed
by the station. PM Marcinkiewicz pointedly made Radio Maryja
his first media stop after winning his vote of confidence, an
unambiguous signal of the value PiS places on "the Catholic
voice in (Polish) homes."

Opposition in Disarray
--------------


7. (C) The threat of early elections may spur the opposition
to stop its collective head scratching, post-election
malaise. PO's failure at the polls has fanned competition
between party leaders Jan Rokita and Donald Tusk. PO's
Secretary General, Grzegorz Schetyna, told poloff on December

SIPDIS
8 that the soul searching was not surprising since PO had
spent most of the last two years preparing to govern.
Schetyna said that early elections were risky for PiS, but
that ultimately PiS and PO were logical partners for a
coalition. This statement runs counter to what PiS's Bielan
told poloff, namely that Schetyna was the only member of PO
adamantly opposed to the coalition, and was decisive in
scuttling the talks. It is also counter to some statements
by Rokita about his vision of building PO into the natural
counterweight to PiS, in a political scene in which these two
parties dominate. But there is constant talk of divisions
within PO.


8. (C) PM Marcinkiewicz still has a road to travel to
convince the majority of Poles that he can operate freely
without the tacit approval of party chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
Adam Bielan repeated a story rumored in the press that
Jaroslaw long ago decided to forego the premiership for
health reasons, along with the recognition that it would be
unacceptable to have identical twins in the two top jobs.
Bielan said that the PM must work eighteen hour days, while
Jaroslaw, with fewer burdens, can spend more time charting
the course of the party (note: and no doubt, the country.
End note). But Jaroslaw clearly does some directing from
behind the scenes, including imposing an unwanted Chief of
Staff on Marcinkiewicz.


9. (C) Bielan described himself as part of a trio of PiS
officials, along with Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Michal Kaminski,
who operate as a kind of think tank for the party, with fewer
responsibilities in day-to-day governing. This free-lance
position does have its downside. Relating a story of Angela
Merkel's visit to Poland on December 2, Bielan noted that she
met with Lech Kaczynski and PM Marcinkiewicz, but "couldn't
meet with the really important guy" (Jaroslaw) owing to his
lack of a formal office. (Note: The German Embassy in
Warsaw claimed that Merkel didn't have time in her schedule
to travel to the outskirts of Warsaw to meet with Jaroslaw
Kaczynski. End note).

Three Different Blocs with Influence
--------------


10. (C) PM Marcinkiewicz also enjoys an upswing of support,
which may help him to emerge from the Kaczynski brothers'
shadow. PiS officials and others describe three different
blocs within the government: at the top of the heap are the
Kaczynski brothers and their closest political allies, such
as Interior Minister and Deputy PM Ludwik Dorn and Justice
Minister Zbigniew Ziobro. A second bloc is made up of
conservatives from the old Right-Wing Christian-National
Union (ZChN),such as Marcinkiewicz and Sejm Speaker Jurek,
who operate on an outer tier. The third bloc is made up of
experts, like FM Stefan Meller and Finance Minister Teresa
Lubinska. (Note: Defense Minister Radek Sikorski is
variously described as either in the second or third tier.
End note). It is not clear at this early stage whether these
experts will have sufficient maneuvering room to operate
freely (perhaps because PiS has put its own people into those
ministries where it wishes to make its biggest impact
politically),or whether they will be weak players in the
government. Lubinska has already caused a flap over comments
she made that were critical of the British supermarket chain,
Tesco (Poland's largest foreign investor),and on monetary
policy, which had to be walked back by the PM himself.


11. (C) Comment: PiS and the Kaczynskis are riding high,
with poll ratings continuing to climb. But they face serious
challenges delivering on campaign promises, and the potential
of fractures inside the party as it pulls in an increasingly
diverse group of supporters. End comment.
ASHE