POLISH PM MARCINKIEWICZ SET TO WIN CONFIDENCE VOTE

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLISH PM MARCINKIEWICZ SET TO WIN CONFIDENCE VOTE



1. (SBU) Summary: Polish Prime Minister Kazimierz
Marcinkiewicz presented his government's program to
parliament November 10, confident of prevailing in a vote of
confidence later that day. Both the populist Self-Defense
(SO) and the right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR)
parties have given clear signals that they will join
Marcinkiewicz's Law and Justice (PiS) in voting in the new
government, providing the prime minister with a comfortable
majority. PiS's would-be coalition partner, the centrist
Civic Platform (PO),has declared that it will enter into
firm opposition to the Marcinkiewicz government. Although
winning today's confidence vote should ensure the PiS-led
government's position, perhaps even for the full four-year
term of office (once installed, the government can only be
removed with majority support for an alternative),the
Marcinkiewicz government faces the daunting prospect of
relying on unpredictable and demanding partners -- for each
and every vote -- to enact its ambitious reform program. End
summary.


2. (SBU) In an hour-long address to the Polish parliament
November 10, PM Marcinkiewicz outlined his government's
program, which drew heavily on PiS anti-corruption,
de-communization and pro-family themes. Marcinkiewicz named
five principal tasks for his administration: reform of the
state (establishment of the "Fourth Republic"); strengthening
Polish security; strengthening families and effective social
policy; implementation of economic policy based on social
"solidarity"; and the development agriculture and rural
areas. The Polish state is "broken," Marcinkiewicz asserted,
and must be freed from the burden of postcommunism. He
pledged that his government will return the state to the
Polish people and eliminate what he referred to as the
"Bermuda quadrangle" of destructive relationships among
politicians, business, secret services and organized crime.
Marcinkiewicz called for thorough reform of administration,
which he insisted could be made leaner, more cost-effective
and deliver more services (including support for families,
small businesses and farmers) simultaneously.


3. (SBU) On foreign policy, Marcinkiewicz declared that
Poland's strategic priorities and Euro-Atlantic commitments
will not change, but that his government will work more
effectively than its predecessors to strengthen Poland's
position in the international arena. European integration is
the guarantor of Polish development and prosperity, he noted,
as Poland's alliance with the U.S. and membership in NATO
serve as the guarantor of its security. Poland intends to
play an important role in ensuring the health of the
transatlantic relationship. Marcinkiewicz noted Poland's
successes in Iraq and indicated that his government will
consult with the U.S. and Iraq in the coming weeks to
determine whether a Polish training mission will be needed.
The prime minister pledged to promote democracy in Poland's
eastern neighbors and to work to ensure a common EU energy
policy that will serve Poland's interests.


4. (SBU) Marcinkiewicz began his presentation fairly assured
of a victory in the confidence vote, having secured SO and
LPR support the previous day. At a November 9 joint press
appearance, SO leader Andrzej Lepper and LPR head Roman
Giertych indicated that their parliamentary groups would
likely vote for the government, providing PiS with a
comfortable margin of victory even without the expected
support of the Peasants Party (PSL). Lepper and Giertych
indicated that they had not -- yet -- received any government
positions for their support, but had secured a few key
parliamentary committee chairs for their groups (including
oversight of the special services for Giertych). Both
signaled that they are prepared to support the Marcinkiewicz
government over time, but highlighted that among their
priorities will be expanded state support for families,
farmers, and renegotiation of the EU accession treaty.


5. (U) Civic Platform leaders, meanwhile, declared that they
would take the party into firm opposition to the PiS-led
government and sought to dispel speculation that some PO
members might support Marcinkiewicz. PO leader Tusk lamented
the "sad coalition" that PiS had effectively forged with
Self-Defense and LPR, which he further characterized as
anti-European and unacceptable to PO.


6. (SBU) Comment: Although the new prime minister is widely
expected to win his confidence vote late November 10, his
government will face significant challenges without stable
coalition partners. The Polish Constitution's provisions
mandating a "constructive" vote of no-confidence should
ensure that PiS remains in control of the government, but the
current political arrangement will require Marcinkiewicz to
secure the support of SO and LPR for each and every vote,
which is certain to come at a price. Working in PiS's favor,
however, is the recognition by those opposition parties that
they cannot set those prices so high that the government will
be forced to return to coalition talks with PO.
ASHE